Financial crisis per year. Collapse on schedule. Will this year wait for the new economic crisis? When the crisis is over
"Black swans" are waiting for isuropes, China or US
Economists again predict the onset of the global financial crisis, and the perspective has already implemented. A number of signs of Ivkitai, Iveverop, the iconic states indicate with the starting stock collapse. What is the likelihood of such a development of events of expressing shocks worth to expect an incent time?
The new global financial crisis will occur in 2018, says the American investor Jim Rogers, owner of Rogers Holdings, who is an expensive partner Dordja Soros.
"In 2018, a crisis will come in the world, people will be frightened, they will invest their money inwards, because the dollar is considered to be a protective asset. The dollar takes off very high, turns into a "bubble" Irukhnet. The dollar will begin to collapse, everyone will want to go out to make money by turning into the currently active, yuan, gold, so further, "RNS reservoir RNS, PMEF-2017.
To come a crisis can a favorite point of the world, and the "New Lehman Brothers" can become a European or Chinese financial institution, he believes. Veverop, for example, can finally collapse the Greek economy. Vkitai authorities promised to incollect bankruptted companies, which will become a huge shock for the whole world. Austsha Play the role of a trigger can, for example, pension funds. "In fact, payments are inhabited, notchinically money in defonds end, and extend that notify pension funds High problems will begin, "says Rogers.
Signs of impending crisis
The conversations of the onow crisis are now for several years. "Joughly agrees with a sampling Rogers, noons regularly warn over the global financial crisis, which is capable of surpassing the Cataclysm 2008-2009," says the investment analyst Global Fxergei boxes.
What kind of factors say from any that the world is behind the head of new financial shocks? First, the extremely low level of volatility of stock markets. The volatility indicator VIX, or the fear index, has completed the last week of a naistorical minimum of 9.75 points. "So Low Vix understed by the collapse of the famous" Dotcoma "VorUbell Milheniumm (1999-20), did notice the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, who became the trigger of the global financial crisis 2008-2009. It seems that fears of Narynka not inevitable. This is an extremely dangerous state, "says Sergey Krakov.
Causes anxiety and marzhinal duty to stock market The United States is the money that brokers lend to investors a windows in paper. This is such a unique opportunity to trade with capital, which is more than the really existing one. IW last years Investors began to lie too naeto, the bubble can burst into a moment. Margin duty grew by 230% C2013, as long as the year is more than 20%, Idostig 549,2ldollar. "This is a new historical record, more than 1500mldollar exceeding peak values \u200b\u200bbefore the crisis of 2008-2009," says boxes.
Concern also causes a Buffeta Indicator, which shows the relationship between the capitalization of the stock market by the US GDP and the USD. Now it is a ratio of 25trindolls against 19 trillion. "Ie the current value of the stock market is 133% more than the size of the economy. According to the calculations of Warren Buffetta, this is an excavatory overbought of issuers. For comparison: on the eve of the previous financial collapse 2008- 2009 Buffett indicator showed only 110.7%, "says boxes.
Another sign is the drop in almost all commodity assets of the chief of the first quarter. "Oil quotes decreased by more than 1.5%, non-ferrous metals fell in price of 10-15%, the prices of NFE-zero ore as soon as possible for 10%. Typically, such a picture precedes the recession of vacancies, "indicates the expert fromglobal FX.
"If we consider economic cycles Kondratieva, with the climbing clicked phase of growth. It is worth saying the IPRO cyclicality of the S & P500 index, which on average once the revenge years showed a decline. Anadian moment on strustt has been the ninth year in a row, "says Ivan Kapustyansky Ispex Optimum.
Where will the trouble comes from
According to economic theory, the onset of crisis is inevitable. The only question is when this happens ITO will be its source. This is a rapid discussion among economists.
More likely that the "Black Swan" will arrive an overlapping, where there is a bubble of the onfincan market, says boxes. The size of the financial sector in the forefield reached 35trindolls, which is the example above GDP Countries. In addition, China's debts grow the Nafon of the explicitly redundant offer of real estate covers in the innovation market. Thus, the debt of companies, the financial structures of Irelions exceeds 20tllandolls, and bump of hopeless debts exceeds 1,5tllandoll.
"Chinese developers will not sell the already built housing, which could accommodate more than 20 million people. The unnoticers are sold with an extremely 30% of apartments, "says the expert. The same situation is an iscomed real estate. For example, the largest hypermarket built by Naug in China has managed to find tenants only by 2% of its squares. "The Chinese bubble will burst under the pressure of the growing value of the borrowing of the Verican currency," warns boxes.
In place, the US Federal Reserve Plan leads a destructive policy. After all, the growth of the accounting rate leads the curdness of loans to the icing of the value of debts. Ikitay will have to spend the highest service much more.
Even Moody 'S agency for the first time from 1989 reduced sovereign credit rating China. The IMF also warned that the Chinese duty, which Kontex 2016 grew up to 253% of GDP, rushes a threat to global financial stability.
However, the leading analyst of the GKTeletRade Anastasia Ignatenko says that in 2016 another seven states had a debt above 100% of the CVI (among them Japan (211%), Italy (136%), Spain (100%), Belgium (109%), Singapore (108 %), Greece (176%), Portugal (129%) Country IDPs - under 100%: USA testing. "So objectively threats are much larger than that of China, that China's economies of the IMAERICS OF DISTRIBUTIONARY MAKE Many Others, and Miscellane It will be much more destructive, "says Ignatenko." Nauthelena, that this is understood by Isami of the heads of states Iglav Iyzb, ion can anticipate these events to improve the negative effect. "
And the majority of experts believe that the new financial crisis will be no longer ill. Hardened Europe will become a catalyst for the crisis, since the largest economies of Europe, Germany, Italy, France, are people who are unprepared to admit even a hint of the Naraspad of the European Union, experts say Nord-Capital. The appearance of the "black swan" is unlikely to have an ECB ultra-brass policy, adds boxes.
China's financial system is indeed the "bubble". "However, the monetary Ipolytic authorities of China repeatedly showed their willingness to support financial institutions with long-term liquidity influxers," the Wkytai scenario is wrong Nord-Capital. The main risk there is still too quick to start raising the rates of the Fed.
"It is very unlikely that the shares of the largest American companies suddenly collapse. Today an additional factor appeared risk-unpredictable politics of Trump, noisezdesy there is a lot of airbags - see the Congress of Iia American laws, "the first vice-president of the Russian Club of Financial Directors" Tamara Kasyanov agrees.
Of course, if you summarize all the problems of Veverop, the USA, Latin America Ikitai, the tocrisis is banned so unlikely. "It seems that the risks for the global financial system are growing up the year, since the level of level is increasing," says Kasyanov.
"NOWMEME STEM is growing a general level decentralization of the Finxist. If before the blow of the water can be an important point to become crushing for the system, the simultaneous series of shocks is needed multitream of important points. While the distributed system is located in the establishment of developing only the fade spheres of life, the new future will be dominated everywhere, then the irisces for the global global financial system will decrease, "Kasyanov will summarize.
Financial shocks Analysts are advised to survive in Swiss francs. Photo Reuters.
The world seems to be preparing for the next global economic shock. Previously, analysts from Bank of America (Bofa) warned about the imminent repetition of the 1998 crisis. Now economists from JP Morgan issues recommendations for hedging risks in case of a global recession. Capitals are already leaving from emerging markets, some analysts note. Russian experts in connection with this situation of a special threat to the ruble are not yet seen. However, significant purchases of the Ministry of Finance of the currency indicate the concerns of the authorities to turn the full-scale financial crisis.
In the case of the next global crisis, first of all, it is necessary to get rid of the currencies of developing countries, analysts from JP Morgan are reported.
They analyzed the five last global recessions and concluded that in the event of a crisis, it is best to purchase Japanese yen, Swiss francs, Singapore dollars and, of course, US dollars. Such recommendations of the Bank leads the Bloomberg agency.
At the same time, economists stressed separately that they do not consider the offensive of the global recession now the script now, but they work out the options in case of its start. "The decals are when lenders may ask to return their money," the analysts explained. "Three of the four leading currencies, which can be owned during recession, are currencies of countries that can boast of extremely strong positions in foreign markets," the report says.
Yen in this sense, according to experts, the cheapest hedging tool during recession, while the Singapore dollar is the least attractive among currency leaders. It is the first to consider as the main means of hedging with a recession, they speak JP Morgan based on the analysis of the behavior of the Japanese currency in recent years. The American dollar wins, because by default serves currency for financial transactions in everything in the world.
The currencies of the developing countries, on the contrary, is distinguished by the fact that they are especially subject to falling into the crisis and depreciate an average of 17% over a biennium from the beginning of the recession, economists prevent.
Note, a few days before the release of the recommendations of JP Morgan about the methods of hedging during the recession of Bank of America issued a forecast that indicated the possible repetition of the global crisis of 1997-1998. Recall, then in the Asian markets there was a global economic crisis, and in Russia - default. Now, according to experts of the Bank, developing markets are treated under pressure strong dollarWhile the shares of high-tech companies go up. "Sustainable growth in the United States, smoothing the bond yield curve, the declining markets of developing countries - all this is similar to the echoes of the events of 20 years ago," the Bofa analyst Michael Hartnett concludes.
All listed symptoms of bank analytics are compared with the situation of the 1990s. Then the policy tightened at the beginning of the decade led to strengthening the dollar: in three years he went up by 25%. Developing markets at that time were decline. Now, indicates the bank, the market of bonds of developing countries decreases, reaching a minimum since the global financial crisis.
"The specified symptoms are caused by other factors. Reducing the cost of currency developing countries is relative and occurs against the background of the US strengthening. By 2020, as expected, the growth of economies of Asian countries will be 6%, "said the contradiction in Bofa's conclusions in the Bloomberg agency.
Meanwhile, the risks of the new recession after 2019 prevented the World Bank. In his report "Global Economic Perspectives", the Bank's economists noted that over the past half century, global recessions occur almost every decade (1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009), and now "passed just 10 years since the last crisis," celebrated in WB .
Listen to the steps of the future crisis and in Russia. On impending trouble makes it makes thinking intensive buying for currency by the Russian Ministry of Finance. The Office of Anton Siluanov until recently increased the purchase of currency. So, only for six months current year Due to the high prices for oil, the Ministry of Finance sent almost 1.7 trillion rubles to the purchase currency, or about $ 27 billion for comparison: for the entire last year, the agency acquired currency by 829.8 billion rubles. "In the third quarter, the purchase of the currency by the Ministry of Finance will significantly exceed the surplus of the current operations. This makes a course very sensitive to investors' moods regarding Emerging Markets (EM, developing markets. - "NG"), "director of the MMI analytical department of Loco-Invest Kirill Tremasov argued in his Telegram-channel MMI.
At the same time, in contrast to Western analysts, he does not see a special threat to the ruble due to the flight of capital from emerging markets. "There is now a reversal of capital flows on Emerging Markets (there is a feeling that investors begin to return) creates serious prerequisites for strengthening the ruble in the second half of the year," the trems suggests. By the end of the year, the ruble has every chance to strengthen, he continues. "Basic hypotheses: the influx of capital on EM will resume, oil prices will remain relatively stable. Dollar / ruble by the end of the year in the area 60 maybe a little lower. In the first quarter of next year, the ruble may return to the levels of 55-57 rubles. For the dollar, "the economist predicts, stressing that the ruble is not worth waiting for a strong strengthening of the ruble in the coming months.
At the same time, there are many potential reasons for a new global crisis, experts "NG" argue. "To date, one of the main challenges are contradictions in world trade caused by the Protecting Policy of Donald Trump. Trade wars became the main negative factor for developing markets in the first half of the year. Together with the tightening of monetary policy in the United States, they provoked capital outflow from risky assets. The US aggressive protectionism forces investors with caution to approach developing markets. And this will undoubtedly continue to put pressure on the ruble, "says Oleg Safonov, managing director of BCS Ultima. At the same time there is a possibility of transition of trade wars in currency. "The currency is much more powerful weapon of protectionism than duties. And China could well use a defensive reception in the form of a soft devaluation of Yuan, "the expert continues, stressing that the trade wars are unlikely to grow into currency.
An impressive "black swan" for the global economy can be debt problems of countries. "Here we note the excessive debt burden of a number of system-forming states - the United States, China, Japan. A significant increase in debt burden is also observed in a number of developing countries. So, China's debt to GDP exceeded 300%, which threatens the potential financial crisis in the country, and this, as we understand, can entail the outflow of capital from all Emerging Markets, including from Russia, to enjoy oil prices and lead to the devaluation of the ruble - Safon points.
There are certain factors that indicate an unhealthy state of affairs, the analyst of the company "Finam" Aleksey Korenev is agreed. "First of all, this is an emergency overbought of the American stock market. In addition, an overly high corporate debt is observed in the United States, despite that a significant part of loans can be attributed to highly adjacent. In 2008, the total volume of corporate bonds in the United States was 2.8 trillion dollars, while there are already 5.3 trillion dollars. At the same time, a significant part of the bonds has a RBD rating and lower, "he notes. Weakly, according to the expert, the economies of developing states themselves look. "Namely they are the first to" fall "the crisis," the analyst indicates. So the crisis cannot be avoided, but it is almost impossible to predict the moment of the start of the bubble collapse, it will summarize Korenev.
"Analysts Bank of America and JP Morgan's right in one: periods of recession are traditionally accompanied by capital outflow from Emerging Markets in favor of stable developed economies, an alternative scenario in principle is unlikely. However, it is worth considering the fact that the recession and the exit from risky assets are not mandatory satellites of each other. Outflow foreign capital from emerging markets is observed in the absence of significant problems in their economy. The investor always goes there, where it is more profitable, and if the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) actively raises the rate, thereby increasing the yield of Trezeris and stimulating the strengthening of the dollar and dollar assets, as it happens now, even in the absence of structural risks in the economies of developing countries. Capital The movement towards the United States will begin, "said Aleksei Antonov analyst, analyst of Alor Broker.
The raising of the Fed rates in any case leads to the care of liquidity from emerging markets, and will be due to this world crisis or not - it remains only to guess, the director of the Analytical Department of Alpari, Alexander Rasuyev, is arguing. "However, now not 1998. Russia does not depend on external and domestic lenders. Budget is a proofitress, and international reserves approach $ 500 billion. Sanctions have significantly weakened the degree of integration of Russia into the global economy. But even if the Central Bank is inactive, that is, the ruble and the bond market will not support the bonds of the federal loan, then in the worst case, the situation of the currency crisis of the end of 2014 will repeat - painfully, but not deadly. At the same time, the markets will be restored sooner or later, and everything in Russia will go in the usual mode, "he is sure.
"The ruble is still highly dependent on the price of oil. And it costs to go down - and this is a completely likely scenario in the current economic situation - and we can only see the next collapse of our currency, "Mikhail's deputy notes. "As for the large-scale economic crisis, we have been in it for several years in a row. GDP and industry almost do not grow, real incomes of the population are reduced. This is the crisis of the economy, "he continues.
The financial crisis of 2018 has officially arrived! You have come for this page, isn't it? Get frightened, beyond, morally prepare for the worst scenario, so that it is easy to suffer, and even live on. In the end, 2008 was not so terrible as his little, and the "Great Depression" was survived. Can there be something worse? Maybe, but not this time. Love people to scare people, but why? Because it is read.
Or maybe we will make an objective assessment and tell the truth? What today is actually. Will there be default? How are things in Europe, in America? What happens to the dollar? What are real risks and forecasts? Let's deal with.
Why an economic crisis can occur
First of all, it is necessary to understand the following: the crisis can occur only when more interested in it than the disinterested. And not even the amount, but the financial power of this person. The country's economy is responsible for the country's economy, and they know exactly how to manage the country so that there are no global financial crisis because of them.
New crisis started? Not yet. But everything is possible. There are some historical facts. In the past after them, a crisis occurred. It is likely that this time we will find a similar scenario for the development of events. Latest news They say the following:
Market volatility decreases. It can be said that there are no fears and excitement on the stock market, and this is quite a painful state. The fact is that traders, especially large players, becomes no longer so profitable to trade. They just fought this lottery machine and how it should be shown, running the process in a circle. If you proceed from the graphical analysis, after a long consolidation, a powerful breakthrough is followed, and here it can only be up.
In Russia after the election, the situation stabilized and the ruble slowly, but rightly went up. Against the background of these events, it can be said that the World Crisis in 2018 is a non-free joke of the media.
Recently, oil has grown confidently. Until 07.2018, the situation was quite normal, despite the fact that she was previously predicted to this time in 2017. After July there will be a long, albeit not very intense, decline in quotations. After August, a new uptrend will probably begin. In any case, the ferrous gold quotes are most likely pulled by the ruble.
Fresh news inform about the recent explosion in Beijing next to the American Embassy. According to rumors, it was a USA. It is unlikely to listen to them, to do it could anyone. Yes, and no one will be surprised if this incident will be contacted with the activities of Russia. Anyway, the trading war of the United States and China will not lead to anything good for these countries, and the economy of other states will not affect.
Global changes may affect the United States. Yes, Americans have a long time in the best way. During several years state debt It continues to increase, and its growth repeatedly overtakes GDP growth. Even default is possible here. Trump mentioned that refinancing is possible to reduce the pressure on the country's economy. Defalt can happen already in 2019, but today there are mechanisms that can prevent it.
It turns out, in the international economy, nothing is happening. D. . Soros predicted that the crisis is expected already in 2017. And where is he? On the other hand, the beginning in 2008 has not yet ended. He is still remembered with a painful smile.
Financial crisis of 2018, and how to prepare
Let's assume that the global financial crisis of 2018 has already come. Ruble quotes flew down, the Central Bank is not able to keep the situation under control. Each expert predicts the full collapse of the entire global economy. What to do in such a situation?
The first question that occurs in people to keep savings. Contributions are good. But if the crisis is really world, then all currencies will rush down. Your finances will be eaten, anyway. The resulting crisis is needed that the rich continued to enrich, and the poor is poor. Real resources will not go anywhere, they will impair monetary signs. Investing in any of the currencies is useless.
- Antiques. They will always be in price. After the crisis, they will recruit their value again, and you can sell them profitably, while retaining your money. But remember that there are many fakes in this market, you need to understand well.
- Cryptocurrency. A thing that is generally outside the economy for the most part. But strong players will influence it. It is likely that it will rapidly recruit the course during the crisis. But maybe fall, if more attractive investment opportunities will appear for strong players. And here, too, you need to understand well, otherwise the market will overtake and turn you out, leaving without money.
- Buying cheap assets. During the crisis, business and real estate rapidly cheaper. This reason has accumulated funds to spend on their purchase. Over time, they will be restored in price, and with competent management, the profits will also bring.
The best investment remains one thing - in yourself. And it does not matter here, the financial crisis of 2018 may begin or cannot. Regardless of what will be the ruble, you still remain in winning. Invest money in your learning in the sphere that you do or which you like. After receiving new information, you can use it with benefit.
Profitable business during crisis
The crisis is just that time when it is time to catch possibilities. Remember those who managed to get rich in the 90s. They caught this wave of change and managed to earn a whole condition on it. And this is despite the fact that people had no money, the purchasing power sought to zero, and the whole family was spent on the "Snickers" with salaries. Today, this situation is even difficult to imagine.
During the crisis, people panic. There is a large area of \u200b\u200bbusinesses that work in human fears. These include security alarms, Chop, insurance, production of car security systems and much more. These are very profitable businesses. People do not want to be afraid, they need confidence in tomorrow. And during the crisis, this need is more acute.
In addition to these destinations, there are other, more affordable. Although it is impossible not to admit that they require a certain courage from humans.
the Internet
Now this is a real storehouse of money, people earn information. Opportunities here mass. Entrepreneurs are ready to pay serious money for advertising on a popular channel, in a community or blog.
First of all, pay attention to social networks. Yes, today this niche is already quite complete enough, but the original ideas will always place. The most interesting thing is to start conducting an honest blog from your face about the crisis started. Banally, just and will attract people. This is just one of the thousands of non-open ideas.
Channels on YouTube are really good earnings. In just 1000 views you will be ready to pay from $ 1.5 advertisers. And if there are hundreds of thousands? Think about this direction. The same applies to personal blogs, communities, clubs in interest in various social networks. Type the subscriber's database and sell advertising.
Freelance deserves separate attention. Remote work is still not so popular, as the scope requires. Here you can make well earn, especially if you become a master in your field. Naturally, nothing will happen immediately. A good freelancer must have an impressive portfolio, a properly designed resume, advertising its services, for several months will definitely have to work only on its name. Such people really earn a lot, and they are not terrible financial crises.
Whatever way you chose, invest in yourself. Do not wear gold, cryptocurrency and other opportunities to invest money. The most expensive today is the information you can get, and where you can earn. It makes sense to invest as much as possible. At the same time, it does not matter, the financial crisis will come or not. With information in the head you will always earn more than without it.
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The new wave of the crisis can cover the world economy in a year. At least, more and more economists agree that the world moves to another catastrophe. What makes specialists warn the world of danger, what does this threat be expressed and is Russia ready to be taken to such a turn of events?
Recently, changes in the world are caused by experts to wait for a new global crisis, and in the near future.
"The situation in the global economy is changing literally in front of her eyes. If at the beginning of the year there was still a lot of victory relations on the topic that world growth is accelerating that, unlike previous years, it is synchronous that the rate of international trade is ahead of the growth rate of global GDP, now another situation is now. The world economic growth was Asynchronen, because, except the United States, all other leading economies slow down - this is the eurozone, and China, and Japan, "says the head of the" Finance and Economics "of the Institute modern Development Nikita Maslennikov.
Secondly, the risk of trade wars began to be implemented. The spiral of mutual shopping duties is spinning between the United States and China. The European Union does not lag behind, which in response also introduces additional duties to American goods. Even Russia, which is associated with fairly weak trade relations with the United States, is preparing responses.
"There are still hopes that the parties will come to a compromise. But if a full-scale trade war starts between two economies (US and China - approx. View), then world economy Loses about 1.4% of growth, "says Maslennikov. And if the "infection" spreads to Europe, then the consequences may be even worse. According to the Nobel laureate on the economy of Paul Krugman, the full-scale trading war of the United States with other countries will mean rates in the range of 30-60%, it will lead to a significant reduction in trade, may be 70%, and world GDP will decrease, possibly on 2- 3%.
"All this brings close to the situation that can push the global farm to the new world recession at the end of the first half of 2019. And this is a careful assessment that I can revise, because the risks are strengthened, "says the economist of the Institute of Contemporary Development.
The crisis was hidden, but he did not go anywhere
The President of the Consulting Company Neocon, Mikhail Khazin, believes that the global economic crisis did not stop, and he goes continuously since 2008. "Ten years without economic growth. It is nowhere - nor in the USA, nor in the EU. Of course, they depict growth, but exclusively due to the fact that they changed the statistical technique. They also included, for example, intellectual property in GDP, and due to this, their GDP is growing. And if you compare with the 70s methodology, then it goes economic recession"," Explains the economist his point of view.
"The acute phase of the crisis began in 2008. He was stopped through emissions and since then pull. Until 2014 was the emission of the dollar, then the euro and yen emission began. Now it is already clear that it does not work anymore. The European Central Bank gradually suspends emissions, so, I think there are still difficult times, "says Mikhail Khazin.
"The aggravation will be exactly when - the question is very complex. First, we do not know when they stop emissions to the end. Secondly, we do not really understand what is the internal reserves. In the situation in which the world financial systemShe never was. There is no experience, not to compare with what, "the economist explains.
Khazin points to the overheated markets, on the ratio of profitability and value of companies. "We can safely say that from the point of view of the criteria that were in former times, the collapse of the markets is inevitable. Behind the collapse of the markets will collapse a mechanism for stimulating private demand. As soon as the mechanism of stimulating private demand collapses, it will immediately be found that people have dramatically the standard of living. Full set, "Mikhail Khazin draws a silent picture. "All financiers from the stock market explained to me that in terms of their techniques and estimates in the fall of 2016 the markets were to collapse. But for some reason they did not collapse. Why is it unclear, "he adds.
Wrong the sharp phase of the crisis can anything. In addition to the collapse of some major financial player (by type Lehman Brothers) or a bubbu (by the type of mortgage in the USA), a bomb can work even in the form of a natural disaster. "Yes, you never know what. For example, a volcano will begin to erupt, or a 12-point earthquake will occur, or some information will open, the reasons can be as you like, "says Khazin. "Where will the exacerbation of the situation come from - who knows, and what's the difference. We now have common markets, therefore, wherever it starts, affects everyone, "he adds.
At the same time, the United States hopes to once again win from this crisis, and not lose.
"I do not exclude that the United States than, actually engaged in Trump, will try to maintain their markets at the expense of the EU, Japan, China, India. It seems to me that they will not succeed. "
- says Khazin.
Soros as a weak link considers the EU
Foreign economists also speak about the risks of the new global crisis. Recently, a well-known financier George Soros spoke about the threat of a major financial crisis. In his opinion, Europe suffers most of all - and, of course, countries with developing markets. However, Soros loves one-sided look at world problems - the US does not see any problems. But the EU has them whole three: the problem with refugees, territorial disintegration (the UK exit from the EU) and the policy of tough economy caused by the financial crisis that "prevented economic Development Europe. And, of course, Soros does not believe that the EU will cope with them: "Everything that could not go wrong, it went wrong." "The fact that Europe is in existential danger, no longer a speech figure, but harsh reality," he is sure.
However, it gives new crisisIn his opinion, the US President Donald Trump, which destroys transatlantic cooperation and comes out of a nuclear deal with Iran, which will definitely affect the EU economy (but again not the United States). It is possible to argue with a single soros approach, when he highlights problems in one region, but darkens them in another, but in general, the threat of the global crisis has the right to exist.
Three clouds of the storm impending on the world economy
Much more objectively pointed to three problem points in the world, the Handel of the IMF Cristina Lagard. She told at the St. Petersburg forum about the "three clouds" of the "Storm" on the world economy. The first "cloud" is just tremendous huge sovereign debts in the area of \u200b\u200b162 trillion dollars or 225% of world GDP, which accumulated different countries. "This is much more than ever, including after the Second World War," Lagard said. This is a stone aside, of course, the United States, whose public debt is approaching 20 trillion dollars, as well as the EU (almost 18 trillion dollars), Japan (more than 11.5 trillion dollars), Great Britain (more than 7.5 trillion dollars), etc. .
The second "cloud" is the financial fragility, which, in the event of tightening the US monetary policy, will lead to a serious capital outflow from countries with rapidly emerging markets and middle income. The Fed is engaged in this, lifting a key rate last week once again.
The third, the most dark "cloud" - "This is a desire to break the system that regulates trade relations over the past few decades", which will put "cross on the rules of movement of capital, services and goods."
Every ten years there is a crisis, the term came up
Literally in early June, experts of the World Bank made their spoonful of tar. Although in 2018-2019, in their opinion, the situation in the global economy as a whole instigates optimism, the recession can occur at any time. They remind that forecasts for the growth of the global economy are always too optimistic, no one foresove the previous world crisis. Economists of another Citigroup Bank indicate that growth does not mean no recession: in crisis 2008, world growth was 1.8%, so if the world economy will grow below 2%, then it can be safely considered a recession.
World Bank economists proceed from the cyclicality of economic crises, which happen every 10 years. The last time the crisis was in 2008-2009, so the time for the new was just seized. In the past, crises also happened in 1975, in 1982 and in 1991. The crisis of 1974-1975 is the first post-war collapse, which began with the energy crisis with the filing of members of OPEC. The energy crisis quickly moved to the economic, listed in tens of millions of dismissed, reducing real incomes of the population. He also spread throughout the world. True, for the USSR, this crisis has opened new opportunities - it was then that the country was able to start exporting its oil to the West.In 1982, the crisis began in August with the default of Mexico, which was not able to serve his external debt, a dozen of other countries followed its example. And provoked such a situation, by the way, the Fed of the United States, which moved to a tough monetary policy. By the end of the US decade, they performed both rescuers, concluding transactions with debt restructuring debts according to the Brady Plan. The crisis ended, and all these countries were even greater dependence on Washington, which could turn them like puppets.
And, of course, the currency crisis, which covered the USSR in 1991. Currency reserves ended in the country, no one has given loans in dollars in dollars, oil production has fallen, they have nothing to pay for existing debts. As a result, the fall in imports, the collapse of the economy and the country as a whole.
At the same time, the Nobel laureate Paul Krugman compares the current situation with the 1997-1998 Asian crisis, followed by the Defalt of Russia. This time, in his opinion, developing countries also suffer primarily. Everything is very simple: their currencies will continue to weaken, at some point the debts of their companies will become low, and they pull down the entire economy of the country.
Is Russia ready for a new crisis?
As for the readiness of Russia, Mikhail Khazin believes that the Russian authorities will react situationally. In his opinion, the accumulation of reserves by Russia, and the decline in twice in the Treasury bonds of the United States speaks at all about preparing for difficult times.
"The accumulation of reserves by Russia is made to maintain the liquidity of the world dollar system, which Christine Lagard (the head of the IMF) once again explained at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. Implicitly, of course, but, for me, it is quite convincing. And even the decline in Russia of investments in US state bonds does not mean anything. What is the difference, if we transferred these funds from dollars in the euro, because the euro is a subsidiary in relation to the dollar, "the economist says.
Lagard on the PMEF-2018 praised Russia for the implementation of one of best plans In the field of macroeconomics. "There is a special savings fund for a black day floating exchange rate, inflation targeting, as well as strengthening and reinforcement banking system", - she said.
However, Nikita Maslennikov with understanding belongs to the increasing of international reserves by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which buses the currency in the interests of the Ministry of Finance. "He buys it in large quantities - from 19 billion rubles a day. These are serious volumes. But the question arises: why do we need it? I understand the answer. We strive as quickly as possible to achieve a norm of the fidth of the national welfare fund in 7% of GDP, after which all other means can spend on internal needs, on investments, for the execution of May decrees, etc., "the economist says.
"Our Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance understand the risks (global recession - approx. View). So that the situation does not find us surprise, we are increasing international reserves. This is a airbag that can be consumed if necessary for anti-crisis measures. To rotate international reserves, we are clearly going to weaken the ruble, which allows you to support our exporters, and not only oil and gas, but also exporters of agricultural products, weapons, Russian software (last year it was sold by 8 billion rubles abroad), etc. ., "Says Maslennikov.
Deputy Prime Minister And Finance Minister Anton Siluanov admitted that without the budget rule,
"If we were not folded into a cube now, we would have a course a little more than 50 rubles per dollar."
However, Russia replenishes the National Welfare Fund: this ensures the stability of the course and creates predictable conditions for Russian business. If the ruble did not relax, then "our agriculture And a number of industries would feel completely different. " "And in these conditions, the flow would hurt imported goods, the competitiveness of our industries would sharply reduced, and what predictability would be for our business? " - Siluanov noted.
The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina also stood on the protection of the country's gold reserves, which some deputies urge to send internal tasks for social and economic development.
"Zolotovotumny reserves are needed to protect our economy from external risks, ensure import, because imports pay another currency, gold reserves Stored in reserve currencies, "says Nabiullina. The gold and foreign exchange reserves rose to 461 billion dollars. The volume of the FNB as of June 1, 2018 was almost 3.928 trillion rubles or 62.7 billion dollars.
It is possible that the billionaire was not mistaken in his forecasts, many experts converge on the fact that there are prerequisites for the crisis. For example, Konstantin Balabushko, Director-General Sky Bond Group, indicates that high NASDA indices cause alertness.
"It is difficult to say when the market turn will occur, on my subjective assessment, it may take another 2-3 years. Despite the increase in the interest rates of the Federal Reserve System, the US market is growing. Difficulties are likely to begin in developing countries. If default is announced This can cause a chain reaction and lead to the transition of investors from long bonds and stocks into short-term. Then the profitability for annual bonds will begin to fall, and the spread between the 10-year-old and annual papers will come back. The wide market can be strongly sized, a special alertness causes an index. High-tech NASDAQ companies, which shows exponential growth, in this sector should be especially careful or use options as hege, "he told.
Roman Tkachuk, senior analyst, ", also believes that the crisis in the coming years is quite likely. "A number of factors indicate that in the coming years, the global financial crisis is quite likely - bubbles in the US stock market, the real estate and loans market, geopolitical tension in the world, gradually folding the stimulating programs of the Central Bank. In addition, there are magic numbers - previous financial Crisis has happened in 1998 and 2008, "Roman Tkachuk explains.
The expert notes that, as 10 and 20 years ago, in 2018, the cause of the financial crisis can be increased interest rate Fed USA. This process will lead to a free financial means From risky assets (stock, commodity markets and emerging markets) in risk-free. For example, in 1998, the problems arose in the SUV countries, and in 2008 - in the American mortgage market.
"A new crisis can be quite comparable to scale with the 2008 crisis. But it is already difficult to forecast in more detail - this is a fortune telling on the coffee grounds," the expert Konstantin Balabushko jokes.
Who else falls under the blow
The crisis always strikes the first thing in the weakest. Tkachuk indicates that now such holes are the markets of developing countries, first of all - Turkey and Argentina, which, along with other developing countries, have taken many currency loans. Now against the background of outflow of means and weakening national currencies They may encounter financial problems. This may entail the exit of investors from all risky assets, then many markets can be affected by chain reaction.
"Another potential threat is the real estate market and the Hong Kong credit market, on which bubbles are inflated. If these bubbles burst, then the crisis can turn to China, and from there - for the whole world," the expert believes.
Konstantin Balabushko indicates that Russia is in a much more profitable position and the crisis will definitely not affect it in the first place. Compared to the same Turkey, the country has much more significant reserves, and also has one of the lowest debt loads in the world. For comparison: Russia's debt is 12.34% of GDP, Turkey's debt is 54.8%, and its gold and foreign exchange reserves are 5 times less than that of Russia.
"The growth of the Fed rates gives more to countries that have a high debt load, there are no such problems such a problem, but there is no rise either. That is, our state of the economy is a stable stagnation, GDP growth 1% per year, while Turkey - This is a bad GDP growth of about 4%, "said Konstantin Balabushko.
At the same time, it indicates that Russian exporters even with a very bad scenario and the offensive of hyperinflation can win, because they receive income in the currency, and expenses are carried in rubles.
What to do
In order not to stay in the minus during the alleged crisis, experts advise not to concentrate their assets in Russia. According to Balabushko, there are three exits: to go to the cache (but not in russian bank), Buy bonds with a rating not lower than BBB with repayment by 2021 or products with capital protection 100% of 3 years.
"In the first case, I would immediately recommend opening a spare airfield abroad and not concentrate capital inside the country. If tomorrow you will be made to convert your dollars in rubles, then will the cache be a protective tool? In the second case, when buying bonds with a rating not lower than BBB, You will continue to receive coupons, and closer to the repayment date not only will be with your money, but also earn a little on top. At the same time, the scenarios can count on the yield of 3.5-4% USD per annum until 2020-21 years. In the third case, the idea is built on Tom, you collect "structure": 90% on your deposit, and 10% on the purchase of an option. Option is the right of investor to buy an asset at a predetermined price. That is, if the market continues to grow, then you get income at the end of such a structure . If the market falls, after 3-4 years you receive the body of investments. So you will earn with any scenario, "he advises.
Analyst "Alpari" Roman Tkachuk advises to go into currency. Bonds, in his opinion, will not be a reliable tool: "Investor should be remembered that in the stock market in crisis times there are no protective assets, including even such as gold and bonds. In connection with which the most reliable way will be fixed all risky assets and Exit to the basket of currencies consisting of american dollar and euro. "
Vadim Merkulov, Analyst IC ", draws attention that now the American market trades with a small discount due to the risks of the trade war between the United States and China, so investors, in his opinion, should keep their investments in the US market:" Investments in the US market They will allow the Russians to protect the currency and unexpected inflation risks of the ruble. In the case of an approaching crisis, I do not recommend investors to use a credit shoulder. By selling your own assets, start-up investors, even taking into account the panic, we will have to sell our assets and do not lose very much. Also I also advise you to trade only Liquid instruments are the yield there below, however, an investor in the event of a panic will be able to sell them at a more favorable price compared to illiquid promotions. "
Beginning investors, like Balabushko, advises to pay attention to the hedge of his position. "Hedge is a fall insurance if you have all the stocks are bought on growth. In this case, a novice investor can take up options on SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY). SPY is a fund that copies the movement of the S & P 500 index. As a result If the crisis starts, the SPY will fall, and put-options will grow in price, which compensates for a part of the fall. Such insurance will cost an investor from about 1% to 5%, "indicates Vadim Merkulov.
The crisis is not today
Analyst GK "" Sergey Drozdov sees the main catalysts of global financial events in trade relations between the United States and China and corporate debts of American companies. But about the global crisis, according to the expert, it is too early to speak.
"It is likely that after summer growth and correction in the fall of 2018, overseas exchange indicators can be completed on a major note and even install historical maxima. But already in 2019, when the effect of the TRAMP tax reform will go to no and the rate of the American regulator approaches A three-percent GDP mark, the United States risks to lose about 0.5%, which can cause conversations about the coming recession and provoke the collapse on world stock exchanges, "he thinks.
Vadim Merkulov in the approaching global crisis does not believe at all: "The economy is now in excellent condition: GDP growth was 4.2%, inflation 2.7%, unemployment 3.9%, wage growth 2.9%, etc., Therefore, now a very bad basis for the beginning of the crisis. Of course, the black swan scenario cannot be ruled out when the financial crisis comes sharply and unexpectedly, but it can be said with confidence that good macroeconomic indicators Soften the global financial crisis. "
He agrees with Drozdov in the fact that it is fear worth instability in the growth of the American economy at the end of 2019, which will be caused by protectionist policies and a trade war with the United States. And this can later lead to a crisis, although now, in his opinion, there is no prerequisites for this.
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