Collapse on schedule. Will this year wait for the new economic crisis? Signs of approaching the financial crisis are visible worldwide a year will begin financially economic crisis.
The financial crisis of 2018 has officially arrived! You have come for this page, isn't it? Get frightened, beyond, morally prepare for the worst scenario, so that it is easy to suffer, and even live on. In the end, 2008 was not so terrible as his little, and the "Great Depression" was survived. Can there be something worse? Maybe, but not this time. Love people to scare people, but why? Because it is read.
Or maybe we will make an objective assessment and tell the truth? What today is actually. Will there be default? How are things in Europe, in America? What happens to the dollar? What are real risks and forecasts? Let's deal with.
Why an economic crisis can occur
First of all, it is necessary to understand the following: the crisis can occur only when more interested in it than the disinterested. And not even the amount, but the financial power of this person. The country's economy is responsible for the country's economy, and they know exactly how to manage the country so that there are no global financial crisis because of them.
New crisis started? Not yet. But everything is possible. There are some historical facts. In the past after them, a crisis occurred. It is likely that this time we will find a similar scenario for the development of events. Latest news They say the following:
Market volatility decreases. It can be said that there are no fears and excitement on the stock market, and this is quite a painful state. The fact is that traders, especially large players, becomes no longer so profitable to trade. They just fought this lottery machine and how it should be shown, running the process in a circle. If you proceed from the graphical analysis, after a long consolidation, a powerful breakthrough is followed, and here it can only be up.
In Russia after the election, the situation stabilized and the ruble slowly, but rightly went up. Against the background of these events, it can be said that the World Crisis in 2018 is a non-free joke of the media.
Recently, oil has grown confidently. Until 07.2018, the situation was quite normal, despite the fact that she was previously predicted to this time in 2017. After July there will be a long, albeit not very intense, decline in quotations. After August, a new uptrend will probably begin. In any case, the ferrous gold quotes are most likely pulled by the ruble.
Fresh news inform about the recent explosion in Beijing next to the American Embassy. According to rumors, it was a USA. It is unlikely to listen to them, to do it could anyone. Yes, and no one will be surprised if this incident will be contacted with the activities of Russia. Anyway, the trading war of the United States and China will not lead to anything good for these countries, and the economy of other states will not affect.
Global changes may affect the United States. Yes, Americans have a long time in the best way. During several years state debt It continues to increase, and its growth repeatedly overtakes GDP growth. Even default is possible here. Trump mentioned that refinancing is possible to reduce the pressure on the country's economy. Defalt can happen already in 2019, but today there are mechanisms that can prevent it.
It turns out, in the international economy, nothing is happening. D. . Soros predicted that the crisis is expected already in 2017. And where is he? On the other hand, the beginning in 2008 has not yet ended. He is still remembered with a painful smile.
Financial crisis of 2018, and how to prepare
Let's assume that the global financial crisis of 2018 has already come. Ruble quotes flew down, the Central Bank is not able to keep the situation under control. Each expert predicts the full collapse of the entire global economy. What to do in such a situation?
The first question that occurs in people to keep savings. Contributions are good. But if the crisis is really world, then all currencies will rush down. Your finances will be eaten, anyway. The resulting crisis is needed that the rich continued to enrich, and the poor is poor. Real resources will not go anywhere, they will impair monetary signs. Investing in any of the currencies is useless.
- Antiques. They will always be in price. After the crisis, they will recruit their value again, and you can sell them profitably, while retaining your money. But remember that there are many fakes in this market, you need to understand well.
- Cryptocurrency. A thing that is generally outside the economy for the most part. But strong players will influence it. It is likely that it will rapidly recruit the course during the crisis. But maybe fall, if more attractive investment opportunities will appear for strong players. And here, too, you need to understand well, otherwise the market will overtake and turn you out, leaving without money.
- Buying cheap assets. During the crisis, business and real estate rapidly cheaper. This reason has accumulated funds to spend on their purchase. Over time, they will be restored in price, and with competent management, the profits will also bring.
The best investment remains one thing - in yourself. And it does not matter here, the financial crisis of 2018 may begin or cannot. Regardless of what will be the ruble, you still remain in winning. Invest money in your learning in the sphere that you do or which you like. After receiving new information, you can use it with benefit.
Profitable business during crisis
The crisis is just that time when it is time to catch possibilities. Remember those who managed to get rich in the 90s. They caught this wave of change and managed to earn a whole condition on it. And this is despite the fact that people had no money, the purchasing power sought to zero, and the whole family was spent on the "Snickers" with salaries. Today, this situation is even difficult to imagine.
During the crisis, people panic. There is a large area of \u200b\u200bbusinesses that work in human fears. These include security alarms, Chop, insurance, production of car security systems and much more. These are very profitable businesses. People do not want to be afraid, they need confidence in tomorrow. And during the crisis, this need is more acute.
In addition to these destinations, there are other, more affordable. Although it is impossible not to admit that they require a certain courage from humans.
the Internet
Now this is a real storehouse of money, people earn information. Opportunities here mass. Entrepreneurs are ready to pay serious money for advertising on a popular channel, in a community or blog.
First of all, pay attention to social networks. Yes, today this niche is already quite complete enough, but the original ideas will always place. The most interesting thing is to start conducting an honest blog from your face about the crisis started. Banally, just and will attract people. This is just one of the thousands of non-open ideas.
Channels on YouTube are really good earnings. In just 1000 views you will be ready to pay from $ 1.5 advertisers. And if there are hundreds of thousands? Think about this direction. The same applies to personal blogs, communities, clubs in interest in various social networks. Type the subscriber's database and sell advertising.
Freelance deserves separate attention. Remote work is still not so popular, as the scope requires. Here you can make well earn, especially if you become a master in your field. Naturally, nothing will happen immediately. A good freelancer must have an impressive portfolio, a properly designed resume, advertising its services, for several months will definitely have to work only on its name. Such people really earn a lot, and they are not terrible financial crises.
Whatever way you chose, invest in yourself. Do not wear gold, cryptocurrency and other opportunities to invest money. The most expensive today is the information you can get, and where you can earn. It makes sense to invest as much as possible. At the same time, it does not matter, the financial crisis will come or not. With information in the head you will always earn more than without it.
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In the global economy, all processes are cyclical: three years later crises are repeated in it. Of the latest shocks, somehow affected the largest states, crises in 1998 and 2008. Can a crisis begin in the near future? Together with experts, AIF.RU.
Scheduled crisis
The global economy has just experienced the consequences of the previous crisis (2008-2009) and can again ride a recession. This writes about this in its recent study "Global Economic Perspectives" World Bank.
As writes acting chief economist WB Cha Nametanyan Devarajan, In 50% of the countries of the world, GDP growth has been observed and this trend can lead to even more rapid growth in 2018-2019. But in the medium term, a positive picture may change. "Protective threats thicken clouds over the future economic growth. If they lead to trade wars, the consequences will be devastating, "Devarajan notes.
Among threats to the global economy, he also notes tightening monetary policy In the United States, which adversely affects investor sentiment. The World Bank does not exclude default of developing economies due to strong dollar.
BANK OF AMERICA specialists are warned about the threat of a new crisis. According to their forecast, the upheavance of 1997-1998 may repeat: now, on the observations of analysts, similar to the dynamics of stock markets. Recall: the crisis of twenty years ago preceded the collapse of the market valuable papers In Asia (this crisis is called "Asian"). At the beginning of the ninety economies of Singapore, Hong Kong, South KoreaTaiwan grew incredibly quickly, these countries became leading players in the region. But the investment boom "overheated" of their economy, after which the crisis broke out in the Asia-Pacific region, the echoes of which were the events of 1998 in Russia.
In Bank of America, pay attention to the fact that due to the strong dollar, emerging markets are experiencing not best times. "Sustainable growth in the United States, smoothing the bond yield curve, declining markets of developing countries - all this is similar to the echoes of the events of twenty years ago," said Bloomberg investment analyst Bank of America Michael Hartnett.
"In recent decades, crises in 80% of cases (in the last four episodes of five) began with the collapse of exchange indices. Here I fully agree with the transfer of external technical signs of similarity. Exchange crises, with the exception of absolutely specific nuances, have one important similarity between themselves: they begin when financial market indicators cease to reflect economic reality, "explains expert of the International Financial Center Vladimir Rozhankovsky.
According to him, when such a combination occurs, it is important to understand the level of slaughterism and saturation. financial Sector artificial trading tools that are not secured real assets. If such securities turn out to be in a state of default, the structure that has released them to the market cannot offer their owners. The chain reaction of defaults begins, which is accepted by the stock collapse. At the same time, as the rozhankovsky notes, at present the level of slaughterism, which was in the same 2008 in the United States and the European Union, is not fixed.
"Another fundamental disagreement with the position of American analysts is associated with their statement that depreciable currency of emerging markets lead to the exchange crisis. In reality, the depreciation (devaluation) of currencies does not lead to a crisis, but to deterioration in the standard of living and the effective demand of the population in these countries, but the more devalued the currency of a particular export-oriented economy (and all developing markets by definition are export-oriented), Especially competitive - and, it means, and stable is such an economy in the face of trade wars, "explains the expert.
The crisis will begin in China, but not now
ICBF Executive Director Maxim Efremov believes that the scenario of the end of the nineties is unlikely to repeat these days: today the currencies of developing countries are not tied to the dollar, and therefore governments have the opportunity to customize their financial systems to adapt to emerging turbulence.
Difficulties, according to him, may arise from economies with a large budget deficit and large debt obligations in dollars. This, for example, may be Turkey, which has a negative balance of 5% of GDP and is strongly dependent on foreign infusion.
As for our country, she also has weaknesses. For example, a high proportion of non-residents in OFZ (bonds federal loan - Ed.).
"With mass sales, the papers should significantly" seek "both the ruble exchange rate and quotes of domestic assets. Nevertheless, the Russian crisis should also not have a significant impact on other countries with the exception of the pair of neighboring.
It is much more likely that the new turbulence in the global economy will begin with China, where, under the influence of "trade wars", problems can emerge, which before that have been successfully disguised, for example, such as incredible conmaturity. This will put a cross on the further growth of GDP and will hit the financial self-sensitivity of states that have a serious dependence on the well-being of the PRC. The risk zone will be both neighboring countries and the United States (the largest trading partner) and commodity exporters (China is the largest consumer of oil, metals and other minerals), "indicates Efremov.
"Since 1990, Russia is an integral part of the global economy, and for this reason our country is also built into world economic cycles. If the world has stock collars and recession, then in Russia there will also be a recession. The question of the stock collar is in Russian, we leave open, since the volume of Russian and American exchange operations are incompaired, "adds Rozhankovsky.
According to Efremova, in the near future the crisis is unlikely to come. But the fact that the largest states and financial organizations Gold is actively purchased, may indicate concerns about the prosperous economic future.
Sandy Jadeja (one of the 50 most influential people on financial marketswho advises governments and royal families) and Robert Kiyosaki (famous for the Guru of Entrepreneurship and financial literacy) Provide the global crisis in 2018. In their opinion, this financial decline will be global and reaches the scale of the global crisis of 2008, and perhaps even the scale of 1929 (the beginning of the Great Depression 1929-1939).
It is difficult to assume that it will be the actual cause of the collapse, but according to the 84-year financial cycle, 2018 will have to the same stage as 1929.
You will probably ask a question as this information to treat this information? You can not believe that the crisis will happen in general, and continue to do what you did. In this case, there are two options for the development of events - the crisis may not happen, or you may encounter it at the moment when you are not ready for it.
I trust the assessment of Sandy Jadeja and Robert Kiyosaki, and I consider their forecasts likely by 80-85%. Even if the financial decline does not happen, the preparation for him will not harm, but most likely it will even help your business. It is better to be prepared and accept the emergence of the crisis in the whole, than to meet it unprepared.
So what happens during any economic crisis?
The securities index falls down. Real gross national product decreases. Gold decreases in price. Housing is cheaper. Business gives much less profit, because the purchasing power of the population falls. National currencies are depreciated.
Remember 2008 and what happened after that. How is your business or the company in which you work, responded to the economic situation? What would happen if you knew in advance that this crisis would take place? Forewarned is forearmed. Knowledge of the future financial decline gives you the opportunity to prepare for it. And the main question here is "how to prepare?"
I propose a solution "3K": team, competence, capital
The team is the people you trust that are with you, you are supported and share your ideas and are ready to be with you in case of any cataclysms. The team primarily consists of people close and relatives to you. Husband or wife, parents and children, other relatives and close friends are your team. Family is a basic level of Teams. These are the people who will always be with you.
The next level is your employees, work colleagues, your subordinates, your business. These are the people who are combined with you common goals and ideas. If you are an entrepreneur and develop your business, now it's time to invest money in my team, create additional jobs, increase salaries, attaching them to the results obtained. And also motivate employees, put them goals and the most important thing to teach, teach and teach those people with whom you work with.
Competences are knowledge, skills, skills, behavior models and personal characteristics, with which the desired results are achieved. An important factor in the competence of a person is the experience, that is, the spheres where the person has already applied these qualities. What competencies can you need during the crisis?
Most likely, you will need to explore additional knowledge in your specialty. It is also likely to learn a new profession. Now the world develops so quickly that every year new professions appear and die old.
One of the promising directions is the direction of artificial intelligence, robots, medicine, electric vehicles and their maintenance. Also will be relevant production of food and their sale, pharmacies, agricultureSecurity services. These are those areas that, after the crisis, can be very in demand.
In the period of the Great Depression (1929-1939), the main value was the food, housing and other basic physiological needs of a person who are at the lower level of the Pyramid of Maslow. Those people who can provide "basic" services will be in winning and after the crisis of 2018.
Capital. Here you need to say about two key financial well-being indicators - this is a personal capital and cash flow (cash flow). It is these two indicators that help you be a financially independent person and achieve financial well-being.
Cash Flow \u003d hell + PD - P
Where hell is your active income, PD - passive income, R - expenses.
- At the same time, active income is when you work for money, that is, you exchange your skills, experience, knowledge, competence, time to equivalence in money.
- Passive income is when your money works for you, for example, deposit, rental apartments, copyright, franchising and so on.
- Costs are, respectively, the money you spend.
- Cash Flow is the amount of money that remains after you have received all your income (active and passive) and took all expenses.
What Personal capital?
Personal capital \u003d assets - liabilities
Your assets are what you can turn into money within one month in the market prices that are currently.
For example, you have an apartment worth 100 thousand dollars, a car worth 30 thousand dollars, a deposit in the amount of 10 thousand dollars and other values \u200b\u200bworth 25 thousand dollars. The amount in which you can sell all these values \u200b\u200btoday is your asset, it is equal to $ 165,000.
Liabilities are commitments, debts, mortgages, credits for cards. For example, you have a loan, and his body (balance to pay) is 23 thousand dollars. Your personal capital is equal to 165.000-23.000 \u003d $ 142.000.
What give these two financial indicators - Capital and Cash Flow? In essence, they reflect your financial situation today. The first stage of preparation for the crisis and will be the analysis of your current financial situation, that is, the calculation of the amount of capital and Cash Flow.
Cash Flow You can have 3 species
- Null Cash flow. This means that you spend exactly as much as you earn. It does not matter how much money you earn, because you still have no balance. This is a bad diagnosis for your financial health, but knowing that you have it can already correct the situation. In the case of zero Cash Flow, you need to optimize your costs and increase revenues.
- Negative cash flow. In the case when your expenses exceed your income. It is urgent to figure out why it happens and if you do not cope with yourself, find financial consultantwhich will help you solve this question. With a negative Cash Flow, as at zero, you also need to increase income and reduce costs.
- Positive cash flow. Your income exceed your expenses. In this case, it is important how you dispose of the remaining money. You can postpone them in order to save. You can invest them in order to increase. You can spend them on shopping, travel or something else. Here I suggest you think that it will be with your money in the event of the global crisis of 2018. If this money lie in the bank, the bank can freeze this amount, pay you later or recalculate national currencyWhat can lead to loss of part of the amount. Some banks and will go bankrupt at all, and then you can lose all your savings. If this money you invest in real estate, it can fall in price. The same can happen with precious metals.
What to do?
In order to be prepared for the crisis of 2018, I suggest keeping money in a 24-hour accessibility. You can keep money on a bank account, but not on the deposit. Now some banks offer enough high percent According to the funds placed on the current account.
Also to this account can be tied by a map. If you need, you will have quick access to these money, and you will be able to quickly remove them in a bank or an ATM. If the amount is large enough, learn about the restrictions on the removal of cash that the NBU has been introduced.
Another task to prepare for the crisis is every month to sum up. Two main indicators - Capital and Cash Flow - closely connected with each other. The higher your Cash Flow, the higher your capital and on the contrary. Your task is to make it so that every month you worked on increasing income. At the same time, expenses should remain at the same level that is now. So you will support a positive Cash Flow.
From this will also grow your capital, and by the end of 2018 you will have the necessary amount of money, which you can benefit from investing in the event of the global crisis. You have time in stock in order to prepare. Remember what was during the global crisis of 2008. Remember what was in 1998. Since many assets fell in price, good businesses could be purchased at an attractive value.
Real estate, cars could also be bought much cheaper than before financial decline. The crisis is the time of opportunity. This is the time when you can lose and when you can purchase.
Think what you can do in order to be ready for the financial situation in 2018, which of the 3rd to "will become for you effective tools Overcoming the crisis and the production of super profits.
I wish you a successful year, a reliable team, increasing capital and expand your competencies!
Having burned on milk, financiers gathered at the Summit of the World Economic Forum in Davos, blow water. The leaders of leading banks and investment funds are concerned not so much by the rapid attack of stock markets, as the sense of investors. In addition, they are afraid of rapid lifting interest rates Central Banks, which will find many economy participants by surprise. "Usually, when people are satisfied and confident, something bad happens," is experiencing David Rubarenstein, the co-founder of the Direct Investment Fund Carlyle Group.
"I have a little feeling that we in 2006, when we all argued whether we managed to solve the riddle of economic crises," said Jes Steley, CEO of Barclays Bank, at the session "Next Financial Crisis?" . - In the economy, the situation now seems very good. But monetary policy is as if we are still depressed. "
If the Central Bank will begin to actively raise the rates in the coming year, "many of those who scored loans will not be able to pay them," Anna Richards warned, CEO of M & G Investments: "Markets are not laid in prices such an opportunity." Governments have too large debts, besides, unexpected geopolitical shocks are possible, Rubenstein added. Probable acceleration of inflation and more fast growth Rates can create problems for countries with low growth rates and big debts, such as Italy and Japan, warned Professor of the economy of Harvard University Kenneth Rogoff.
The synchronous growth of the global economy began last year. According to the IMF, all seven largest economies in the world - USA, China, Germany, Japan, France, the United Kingdom, India - have grown by more than 1.5%. And for the first time after the financial crisis, all 45 countries grew, which monitors OECD. The IMF raised the forecast for GDP growth to 3.9% in 2018 and 2019, noting the "most full-scale simultaneous acceleration of world growth since 2010".
Last periods of such synchronous growth lasted several years. The global economy grew by about 4% per year in 1984-1989. and in 2004-2007 If the geopolitical situation is not spoiled, the rapid economic lift can last at least a couple of years, says Jay Bryson, economist WELLS Fargo Securities (Quote by The Wall Street Journal).
But there are also serious differences. In the past, recovery after the recession was more active, indicated WEF experts in the global risk report. Despite the growth of global GDP and trade direct foreign investment (FDI) in 2017 collapsed by 16% - to $ 1.52 trillion with $ 1.81 trillion, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said; In June of that year, an increase of 5% was predicted. The cost of declared new projects fell 32% to $ 571 billion, a minimum since 2003. This is a negative long-term indicator, the report says. In 2018, UNCTAD is waiting for FDI growth to $ 1.8 trillion.
Another difference: usually the economy when improving the situation is becoming more open, but in 2017, according to Global Trade Alert, governments introduced 642 protectionist measures - almost twice as much as in 2010. At the same time, 143 measures accounted for 59 % More than in 2016, democracy was separated with the economic situation: in 2017, in the freedom in the world ranking, which made Freedom House, worsened positions 71 countries and only 35 were improved. Freedom level decreases since 2006, the process is particularly accelerated in recent years.
Michael Korbat, CEO Citigroup, is concerned about the ambiguity of the economic situation, where it is unclear how the disappearance of light money from central banks will also affect the economy and markets, as well as the lack of reaction of the latter for serious events such as current budget problems in the United States (with Saturdays on Monday did not work many state institutions, as Congress did not find funding for them), victory in the election of Donald Trump and voting on Brexit. "When a new decline comes (and he will come), he will most likely be more sharp than if we were able to release a little couple on the way," Korbat said at the Savro session.
President-shareholder
Constant tweets of President Donald Trump that stock market achieved next heights, can undermine the readiness of American regulators to deal with the beggars and extremes in financial System, I warned Fang Synehai, Deputy Chairman of the Chinese Commission for Regulatting the Securities Market. If the bubble is inflated, the regulators "can act not so quickly", if the president drives the market upwards by his statements, added fan. His fears shared Kenneth Rogoff. "Will he [Trump] put pressure on regulators?" - he asked a rhetorical question.
Characteristic of past decades the relationship between political stability and an increase in the economy broke out, Tina Fordham said, the main global Citi political analyst, at the conference in London last November. Geopolitical risks greatly increased, but the market volatility is low, and the economy is accelerated. Political leaders do not see the reactions of markets, which would make them worry, and therefore are not very concerned to decline in these risks, warned Fordham.
The MSCI WORLD shares index of the developed countries increased by 20.1% last year, and the MSCI Emerging Markets developing markets index - by 34.3%. Since the beginning of this year, on Monday's closure, they added 5.6% and 6.9%, respectively. American S & P 500 and Japanese Nikkei 225 in 2017 added more than 19%, and in this Nikkei reached a 26-year-old maximum. The Dow Jones index overcame the distance of 1,000 points - from 25,000 to 26,000 - in just eight shopping days, which became a record in his history. Russian Mosbier index, which a year earlier lost 5.5%, jumped by 9.4% in January
This global policy stated that the current global policy could provoke another major financial crisis. Europe is most of all, as well as countries with developing markets.
According to the billionaire, the European Union has faced three key problems: the problem with refugees, territorial disintegration (UK exit from the EU) and a tough economy policy caused by the financial crisis that "prevented economic Development Europe.
"Everything that could not go wrong went wrong," said Soros. "The fact that Europe is in existential danger, no longer a speech figure, but harsh reality"He is sure.
The policy of the administration of Donald Trump A, which destroyed transatlantic cooperation, and also out of the nuclear transaction with Iran, will have a negative impact on the economy. Under threat of developing markets, whose currencies threaten devaluation ( russian ruble refers to this category).
These statements sound against the background of good macroeconomic statistics. (IMF) predicts growth in developed countries this year by 2.5%, as of 2.2%. The economy of developing countries will increase by 4.9% and 5.1% in 2018-2019. In general, this year, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.9%.
But, if you look at the data, the global economy in the last 40 years is moving along a clear cycle, in which every 7-10 years there is a sharp slowdown in growth rates: 1975, 1982, 1991, 2001 and 2009 were points of crisis when instead of 3 -5% per year an increase was 0.8%, 0.3%, 1.4%, 1.9% and minus 1.7%, respectively.
The world's largest economy - the United States - during these periods left in minus, with the exception of 2001, when growth rates amounted to about 1%. In the last crisis 2009, America fell on a record 2.8% for himself.
If we take into account this retrospective, it turns out that a new crisis can happen in this or next year.
George Soros is not the only one who talks about the likely approximation of the crisis. In particular, a recent group of Western economists wrote about this, as well as the Nobel laureate in economics.
Krugman found parallels in current situation With the crisis of 1997-1998, which came from the Asian region. Now, too, can all start from emerging markets, first of all, from the currency collapse courses . However, while he does not think that something "frightening" is coming.
The May survey of economists who conducted, indicates the 15 percent probability of recession in the United States over the next 12 months, but within 24 months it increases to 31%.
The head of the IMF, speaking at the recent St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, stated that three "clouds" were hung over the global economy. This is about high level debt burden that have accumulated states and companies. It is $ 162 trillion or 220% of world GDP. This is a record level, Lagard says.
The second problem is the likelihood of capital outflow from developing countries. But "the darkest cloud" is all the same Trump. The head of the IMF did not call him, but stated that the risk lies in the "striving of some to break the system, which was led by trading relations."
"This storm will try to put a cross on the rules that lead the movement of capital, services and goods. This is the cloud for which we must follow, "said Christine Lagard.
It is necessary to explain that the emerging markets and their currencies (including ruble) threatens, first of all, the normalization of monetary policy. Fedrerev raises the rates (this year another two or three raises are expected from the current level 1.5-1.75%) and reduces the balance on which the US GOSBUMAG is now several trillion.
Wherein The White house Increases borrowing. The US public debt this year has already exceeded $ 21 trillion and 105% of GDP. The yields of American treasury bonds also beat perennial maxima, which scares investors.
All together, it can play the role of a vacuum cleaner, which sewers from developing markets tools for investors and causes the devaluation of their currencies. True, the head of the Russian Central Bank Elvira says that foreigners' flight is not afraid.
"Many talk about the external risks of various kinds, if there are non-residents from the market. We have evaluated, indeed, the yield curve can slightly move, but not catastrophically - on 40-50 basis items, according to our estimates. It may be, of course, increased volatility, but the equilibrium point will be somewhere at this level. I do not think that there will be serious consequences, because we mydobred the market itself is not very large and the volume of OFZ is not very large compared to our economy, "Nabiullina said at the St. Petersburg Forum.
However, the introduction of the United States at the beginning of April sanctions against both their companies showed that the ruble exchange rate can easily go to the old vertices of 70 rubles per dollar and 80 rubles per euro. And this is at the price of oil in the area of \u200b\u200b$ 65-70 per barrel.
Non-residents also own 34.5% of Russian bonds (OFZ) with a par value of 2.351 trillion rubles. (about $ 37 billion at the current course). Sale of these papers can provoke a sharp collapse of the ruble.
The Russian economy is not very firmly on the legs. Growth in the first quarter of this year, estimated, was only 1.3%. Most likely that it will not exceed 2% at the end of the year. The new external crisis sublocks this unstable growth, and will send Russia again to the recession.
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