Business cycles. The theory of business cycles of the economic conjuncture (concepts, causes of changes, mechanism of functioning). Reasons for business cycles. Animation-acceleration mechanism of cycles

Logic and theory of argumentation

Introduction

It is difficult to overestimate the importance of logic and the theory of argumentation not only in the development of scientific knowledge, but also in everyday life. For science, an essential point is effective ways of processing information and research methods, forms of thought and operations with them, the foundations of proof, rules for constructing a hypothesis and theory. In general, everything that forms the basis of logic and theory of argumentation. In everyday life, it is very important to be able to defend your point of view, to find a way out of a difficult life situation. This is largely facilitated by the study of logic and the theory of argumentation.

This discipline was formed at the junction of several sciences - logic, rhetoric, psychology, etc. Moreover, the theory of argumentation and logic can be studied as separate disciplines, each of which has its own area of \u200b\u200bstudy: logic - forms of thinking, their features and interaction, laws of thinking; theory of argumentation - ways of persuasion. The unification of logic and the theory of argumentation pursues the goal of forming a logical culture of a student, based on theoretical knowledge of the foundations of logic and the practical application of these foundations in the process of argumentation.

Developed logical thinking is one of the hallmarks of a modern educated person. The ability to think clearly, to quickly make the right decision based on an analysis of the current situation ensures a person's relevance and success in professional activities. For example, the ability to use the entire arsenal of logical knowledge and methods of persuasion will be useful in professional activities that involve interaction with people, the ability to influence their opinion, tastes, and the choice of a particular product. Therefore, people who have chosen such a field of activity as, for example, public relations, personnel management, etc. it is necessary to study logic and theory of argumentation.

Topic 1. The subject of logic

give a definition of logic;

to characterize the stages of development of formal logic;

indicate the features of non-classical logic;

to understand the meaning of building logical formalized systems;

name the main aspects of the language;

to understand the originality of the logical approach to the study of thinking in comparison with other sciences.

Logics Is the science of forms, methods and means of correct thinking. Generally significant forms of thought include concepts, judgments, inferences, and generally significant means of thought - definitions, rules for the formation of concepts, judgments and inferences, rules for transition from some judgments or inferences to others as consequences of the first (rules of reasoning).

Formal logic has gone through two main stages in its development. The beginning of the first stage is associated with the works of the ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle, in which a systematic presentation of logic is given for the first time. Aristotle's logic and all pre-mathematical logic are usually called "traditional" logic. Traditional logic distinguishes and describes some of the simplest forms of reasoning fixed in the language. The second stage is the emergence of mathematical or symbolic logic. For the first time in history, ideas about constructing logic on a mathematical basis were expressed by the German mathematician G. Leibniz at the end of the 17th century. The first implementation of Leibniz's idea belongs to the English scientist D. Boole (mid-19th century). He created algebra, in which the letters indicate statements. Thanks to the introduction of symbols into logic, the foundation was obtained for the creation of a new science - mathematical logic. The application of mathematics to logic made it possible to present logical theories in a new convenient form and to apply the computing apparatus to solving problems that are inaccessible to human thinking due to their complexity.

Modern symbolic logic is a very ramified field of knowledge. Symbolic logic is subdivided into classical and non-classical. Non-classical logic is also subdivided into intuitionistic logic, modal logic, logic of questions, relevant logic, etc. Non-classical logic is based on the idea that the law of the excluded third is inapplicable in some cases, in particular, when it comes to infinite sets. In addition, in a number of directions of non-classical logic, the initially two-valued logic of Aristotle is transformed into three-valued, four-valued, and then into multi-valued.

Traditional logic was empirical. She singled out and described some of the simplest forms of reasoning from the so-called categorical judgments recorded in the language of everyday life. Modern logic has expanded the range of forms under consideration, introducing reasoning specific to scientific knowledge, in particular, mathematical. Moreover, modern logic has determined the principles of theoretical substantiation of the conditions for correctness of conclusions and proofs, using the concepts: logical law and logical consequence.

Unlike other sciences that study thinking, logic studies the features, properties of forms of thought, while abstracting from the specific content that these forms of thought can carry; she studies them from the side of structure, structure, i.e. internal lawful connection of the elements constituting the form of thought.

It should be borne in mind that logical forms and laws are universal and objective, that is, they are not associated with any psychophysiological characteristics of people or with one or another cultural and historical factors.

Thinking is closely related to language, however, these are not identical concepts. Language is a material formation, which is a certain sign system that allows you to express thoughts, store them and transmit them. Thinking is an ideal system. If the main elements of language are letters, words, phrases and sentences, then the elements of thinking are separate forms of thought (concepts, judgments, inferences) and their combinations.

Natural language is a system of signs. When considering a language as a sign system, it is important to consider three main aspects of the language: syntax, semantics and pragmatics.

Syntactic aspect includes a variety of relations of signs to other signs, the rules for the formation of some signs from others and the rules for changing signs in the language.

Semantic aspect constitutes a set of relations of signs to objects of extra-linguistic reality, that is, to what they denote.

The pragmatic aspect includes all such features of the language, which depend on who and in what situations it is used.

Proceeding from the principle of objectivity of knowledge, in science they strive to exclude any possible influence of the subjective characteristics of cognizing people in determining the semantic contents of linguistic expressions and in describing cognitive procedures. There should not be, for example, ambiguities, ambiguities in the expression of thoughts in language. Specially constructed logical formalized languages \u200b\u200bsatisfy these requirements.

The main goal of logic is to clarify the conditions for the truth of knowledge and the development of effective cognitive procedures. Knowledge of logic increases the culture of thinking, promotes clarity, consistency and evidence of reasoning, enhances the effectiveness and persuasiveness of speech. Logical culture is not an innate quality. A logical culture is formed as a result of a careful study of logic and the accumulation of experience in the practical application of logical knowledge.

Logic is of great importance in the development and organization of the information process. Failure to comply with the logical form and logical following in information processes is fraught with negative consequences in various spheres of human life and society.

Test questions:

Give a definition of logic as a science.

What is the difference between traditional logic and symbolic logic?

Who is the founder of logic?

What are the main aspects of the language you know?

What principles form the basis of non-classical logic?

What practical value is the study of logic?

What are the main forms of thought?

Topic 2. Concept

Having studied the materials of the topic, you can:

to understand the logical methods of concept formation;

give a logical description of any concept, based on the classification of concepts;

determine the relationship between concepts in terms of volume;

to understand the essence of such logical actions over concepts such as generalization, limitation, division and definition;

name the logical errors that occur when the rules of division and definition are violated.

understand the meaning of operations with classes.

A concept is a form of thought that reflects general, essential and specific features of objects, phenomena, processes.

Formation of a concept is possible through the use of such logical techniques as analysis, synthesis, abstraction, generalization. Analysis - mental dismemberment of objects into their component parts, mental isolation of features in them (i.e., properties and relationships). Synthesis - mental connection into a single whole of parts of an object or its features, obtained in the process of analysis, which is carried out both in practical activity and in the process of cognition. Abstraction - mental selection, isolation of individual signs of interest to us, properties, connections and relations of a specific object or phenomenon and mental distraction of them from many other signs, properties, connections and relations of this object. Generalization - mental highlighting of some properties belonging to a certain class of objects; transition from singular to general, from less general to more general.

Getting acquainted with the doctrine of the concept, it is important to clearly understand that the concept as a thought is not identical with either the word expressing it or the object that it reflects.

A concept has only two elements of its structure - content and volume. Volume Is a set of objects of thought, united in a concept. Content - many signs of objects, united in the concept. There is the following relationship between the volume and the content of a concept: the larger the volume, the less the content; The smaller the volume, the greater the content.

Highlighting the elements of the structure of a concept and familiarity with their features, properties makes it possible to consider the types of concepts, relations between them and, finally, operations on concepts.

In count concepts are divided into common, single and empty. Common concepts are called, the volume of which contains two or more elements. For example, the concept of "book". Single concepts are called, the volume of which contains only one element. For example, the concept of "Russian Museum". In fact, all proper names are singular concepts. Empty concepts are called concepts, the volume of which does not contain a single element. For example, the concept of "koschey immortal" or the concept of "square circle".

By quality concepts are divided into positive, negative, concrete, abstract, relational and non-relational, comparable, incomparable, collective and dividing, registering, non-registering.

Positive concepts are concepts that indicate the presence of a particular quality or relationship in an object. For example, the concept of "decency". Negative concepts are concepts that indicate the lack of some quality or relationship in an object. For example, the concept of "uselessness".

Specificconcepts are concepts that reflect objects. For example, the concept of "home". Abstract concepts are concepts that reflect the properties and relationships between objects. For example, the concept of "height".

Collective concepts are concepts whose features do not relate to each element of the set, but to the entire set as a whole. For example, the concept of "platoon". Dividing concepts are concepts, the signs of which relate to each element of a set of objects. For example, the concept of "soldier".

Relativea concept is a concept, the content of which is the presence or absence of the relation of an object thought in it to some other object. In a correlative concept, an object is thought that determines the existence of another object. For example, the concept of "boss" determines the existence of the concept of "subordinate". Non-relative a concept is a concept, the content of which is not connected with any relation, where conceivable objects (signs) exist completely independently, independently of other objects (properties). For example, the concept of "pencil".

Comparable Concepts are concepts whose content is closely related. For example, the concept of "man" and the concept of "living being". Incomparable concepts are concepts, the connection between which in content is far away. For example, the concepts of "painting" and "mole" are incomparable concepts.

Registering are called concepts in which the set of elements conceivable in it lends itself to accounting, is registered (in any case, in principle). For example, "heroes of the Soviet Union", "month". The registration concepts have a finite volume. Non-registering are called concepts related to an indefinite number of elements. So, in terms of “machine”, “paper,” many of the elements conceivable in them cannot be taken into account: all people, all cats, think in them. Non-registering concepts have an infinite scope.

The relationship between concepts is the relationship between the types of concepts. Relationships between concepts are compatible and incompatible.

Compatible concepts are concepts whose scope partially or completely coincides. Compatibility relations: identity, subordination, intersection. Identical concepts are concepts whose scope completely coincides. Subordinates concepts are concepts whose volumes have such a relationship that the volume of one of the concepts is fully included in the volume of the other, but does not coincide with it. Subordinate concepts reflect generic relationships. Crisscross (in relation to intersection) concepts are concepts whose scope overlaps.

Incompatible concepts are concepts whose volumes do not have common elements. Relationships of incompatibility: contradiction, opposition, subordination. Subordinatesconcepts are concepts, the volumes of which exclude each other, but at the same time are included in the scope of some broader (generic) concept. Contradictory concepts are concepts that are species of a certain genus, the features of which are mutually exclusive, and the sum of their volumes exhausts the scope of the generic concept. Opposite concepts are concepts included in the scope of a certain generic concept and the scope of which exclude each other. The volumes of opposite concepts in their totality do not exhaust the volume of the generic concept.

For better memorization and orientation in these relationships, it is customary to depict all types of relationships using euler circles.

Business cycle (Business cycle) Is the time interval between two identical states of the economic conjuncture. During the upswing phase, investment, total income, total demand and aggregate supply, employment. The growth rates of these indicators, approaching the peak phase, slow down. Here the highest employment in this cycle is achieved, the level of total income, demand, investment. As employment increases, the general price level (inflation) also rises. The rise in prices is outstripping the rise in wages, which reduces the demand for durable goods. The economy starts moving from full employment to part-time employment (recession phase). And at first the level aggregate demand can remain unchanged. This is explained by some inertia of aggregate demand, the habit of the population to the achieved level of current consumption. At the same time, the aggregate supply begins to decline. When the emerging downward trend becomes stable, the population begins to adapt to new conditions: aggregate demand begins to decline faster than aggregate supply, which accelerates the decline and the economy is approaching the bottom point. Falling aggregate demand causes a decline general level prices. A depression phase begins, characterized by a zero rate of economic decline, low employment, aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and investment. During this period, the economy is cleared of ineffective solutions, ineffective entrepreneurs, competition intensifies. In an effort to reduce costs, firms begin to update equipment, which causes the economy to revive, turning into a boom.

The nature of each particular business cycle also depends on the interaction with other types of cycles, since cycles of shorter duration are carried out against the background of longer cycles. Thus, Kondratyev's cycles determine the shape of the curve showing the business cycle. On the upward wave of the Kondratyev cycle, when the national economy is transitioning to its new technological base, the ups are very intense and prolonged, while the downs are less noticeable. This is explained by the fact that each new rise in the business cycle is initiated by the development of a new technological base of the national economy. The downward wave of the Kondratyev cycle is characterized by long and deep recessions of the business cycle, a reduction in its duration. Examples are the Great Depression (the crisis of 1929-1933) and the crises of 1969-70, 1974-75, 1980-82, which occurred on the downward wave of the fourth Kondratyev cycle. The reasons for this are the gradual depletion of the potential of the already established technological base of the economy, as well as monetary dynamics.

There is still no consensus among economists regarding the reasons for the cyclical nature of the economy. First of all, the approaches to the problem themselves differ. Thus, D. Ricardo and J. B. Say (late 18th - early 19th centuries), convinced of the ability market economy to self-regulation, denied the very possibility of nationwide economic crises. Others recognize the possibility of cyclicality, but see the sources of its causes differently. Some economists believe that the cyclical nature of the economy is generated by factors external to the economy, such as fluctuations in solar activity (S. and E. Jevons), cyclical fluctuations in the weather (S. Moore), changes in psychology (V. Pareto, A. Pigou), wars and the activation of the state (R. Frisch and others), cyclicality in the development of scientific and technological progress (J. Schumpeter, J. Hicks). So, in the Hicks - Hansen model, cyclical fluctuations are explained by the interaction of commodity and money markets, when, for example, under the influence of scientific and technological progress in the economy, autonomous investments arise. To stimulate the mass adoption of advanced technologies, the state usually helps to improve the investment climate. Then potential investors, optimistically assessing economic prospects and focusing on the existing interest rate, increase the size of their investments, using their savings reserves. As a result, there will be an expansion of production volumes, followed by growth total income... The economy is on the rise. All this will have an impact on the money market. If the money supply does not change (the state does not issue money), and part of the increase in total income turns into additional demand for money (for credit), then the interest rate will rise. Magnification interest rate will negatively affect the market for goods. Assessing the future rate of return in the face of rising credit prices, manufacturers will begin to curtail investment demand. As a result, the growth of investments, production, total income, and hence savings, slows down.

The basics economic theory... Lecture course. Edited by A.S. Baskin, O.I. Botkin, M.S. Ishmanova Izhevsk: Publishing House "Udmurt University", 2000.

The question of the causes of the phenomenon of cyclicality in the economy is interpreted ambiguously by various economic schools.

Marx, who studied cyclicality in the period of classical capitalism, saw the reasons for this phenomenon in the internal nature of capitalism and in the special external forms of its main economic contradiction - the contradiction between the social nature of production and the private appropriation of its results.

Labor power under capitalism was considered by Marx as a commodity that is sold and bought by capitalists for the sake of its exploitation, i.e. for its specific ability to create surplus value appropriated by capitalists. Under the influence of competition, capitalists are forced to replace labor with machines, and this lowers the rate of profit, i.e. share of surplus value in total capital. To maintain the rate of profit, capitalists seek to increase the degree of exploitation of workers by curbing growth wages... On a societal scale, this leads to a lag in consumption (in the form of effective demand) from production opportunities. As a result, there are crises of overproduction as a consequence of the lack of funds among the population to purchase manufactured goods.

Non-Marxist schools have developed a number of different interpretations of the causes of cycles and crises in the economy. Samuelson, for example, notes the following as the most famous theories of cycles and crises: the monetary theory that explains the cycle by expansion and contraction bank loan (Hawtrey et al.); the theory of innovations, which explains the cycle by the use of important innovations in production, such as railways (Schumpeter, Hansen); a psychological theory that interprets the cycle as a consequence of waves of pessimistic and optimistic mood covering the population (Pigou, Bedzhgot, etc.); the underconsumption theory, which sees the cause of the cycle in too much of the income going to rich and thrifty people in comparison with what can be invested (Hobson, Foster, Catchings, etc.); the theory of overinvestment, the supporters of which believe that overinvestment rather than underinvestment is the cause of the recession (Hayek, Mises, and others); “Sunspot-weather-harvest theory” (Jevons, Moore et al.).

In recent decades, the most popular explanations for cycles are the action of the multiplication-acceleration mechanism, as well as the so-called procyclical policy of the state.

The concept of the multiplier was first formulated by the English economist R. Kahn during the world economic crisis 1929-1933 Kahn called the multiplier the coefficient that determines the increase in employment for each unit of government spending on public works. Keynes developed and used this idea of \u200b\u200bKahn about the employment multiplier when considering the role of investment in the economy. At the same time, Keynes singled out autonomous investments Ia, the volume changes of which do not depend on changes in the level of income, but are determined by certain factors external to the economy, for example, the uneven development of scientific and technical progress, and derivative investments Iin, the volumes of which are directly determined by fluctuations in the levels economic activity.

Keynes proved that there is a stable relationship between changes in autonomous investment and national income, namely, changes in the volume of these investments cause greater changes in the volume of national income than changes in the volume of investment itself.

As you know, one of the expressions of the equilibrium situation in the economy is equality

where Y is income; С - consumption; I - investment.

This equality can be represented as

where CY is the marginal propensity to consume; Ia - stand-alone investment.

In this case, autonomous investments will be defined as the difference between total income and its consumed part:

Ia \u003d Y - CYY, or Ia \u003d Y (1 - CY).

From here, income will be determined by the formula

Y \u003d Ia / (1 - CY).

If we express this equation in incremental values, then it will take the following form:

DY \u003d DIa 1 / (1 - CY).

In this formula, 1 / (1 - CY) will represent the income multiplier K, i.e. coefficient that shows how much the national income will increase with an increase in autonomous investment by DIa. (Likewise, in the case of a reduction in investment, the multiplier will show how much the income will decrease compared to investment.)

Since CY \u003d 1 - SY, where SY is the marginal propensity to save, the considered multiplier can also be expressed as 1 / SY.

The multiplier coefficient, as can be seen from the formula, directly depends on CY, i.e. the propensity of the population to consume. The greater this tendency, the greater the multiplier, and vice versa. For example, if the propensity to consume is 1/2, then the multiplier of the national income will be 2, and if the population consumes 3/4 of the national income, then the multiplier will double. Accordingly, with the same volume of investment increment, the economy may have different increments in national income due to differences in the population's propensities to consume and multiplier coefficients. For example, an increase in investment by 400 billion rubles. with a multiplier coefficient equal to 2, will give an increase in national income in the amount of only 800 billion rubles, and with K \u003d 4 - in the amount of 1600 billion rubles.

Keynes explained the multiple increase in income due to the increase in investment by the emergence, following the primary increase in income generated by initial investment, secondary, tertiary and subsequent increases in income from different persons... For example, in connection with the investment of additional funds in construction, the income of construction workers increases. Part of these incomes, these workers (depending on their propensity to consume) will spend on the purchase of any consumer goods and thereby increase (by the amount of the cost of these goods) the incomes of the sellers of the respective stores. In accordance with their propensity to consume, these sellers will also partly spend their additional income on the purchase of various goods, thereby giving an increase in income to the sellers of these goods. The increase in income will go in an infinitely decreasing geometric progression, since each time, not all income is spent, but only part of it, determined by the propensity to consume. The effect of the multiplier effect decreases to zero when the ratio of the increase in total expenses to the initial volume of additional investment becomes equal to the multiplier coefficient.

By itself, the multiplier effect in the economy, disclosed by Keynes, is not considered decisive in the formation of the cycle. However, this effect becomes very important when it interacts with the accelerator effect.

Unlike the multiplier, the accelerator effect is no longer associated with autonomous, but with derivative investments, i.e. with those that depend on changes in income.

The principle of the accelerator is that an increase in income causes an increase in investment, proportional to an increase in income (accordingly, a decrease in investment generates a reverse reaction). The general formula of the accelerator V is as follows:

V \u003d DI / (Yt - Yt– 1),

where DI is investment growth; (Yt - Yt - 1) - income growth for the period under review.

In accordance with this formula, the increase in investment can be represented as follows:

DI \u003d V (Yt - Yt - 1).

The point of the accelerator is that the increase in investment can be more dramatic than the increase in the volume of income that caused it.

The reason for the sharper fluctuations of investment in comparison with income (or, in other words, investment demand in comparison with consumer demand) is usually considered to be the need to spend part of the investment to replace the depreciation of fixed capital. Due to this circumstance, an increase in demand for finished productsfor example, a 10% increase in gross investment can double the percentage.

Although the multiplier and accelerator models are considered separately, it is believed that their mechanisms operate in close connection with each other. As soon as one of these mechanisms comes into play, the second one begins to function. If, for example, an autonomous change in investment occurs in a position of equilibrium, then a multiplier sets in motion, which causes a number of changes in income. But changes in income set the accelerator in motion and generate changes in the volume of derivatives. Changes in derivative investments again set in motion the multiplier mechanism, which generates changes in income, etc.

The described scheme of interaction between the multiplier and the accelerator constitutes the acceleration-animation cycle mechanism.

The general model of interaction between the multiplier and the accelerator is characterized by the following formula of income of J.R. Hicks:

Yt \u003d (1 - S) Yt - 1 + V (Yt - 1 - Yt - 2) + At,

where Yt is the national income; S is the share of savings in national income; (1 - S) - the share of consumption in it (or propensity to consume); V is the accelerator coefficient; At is autonomous demand.

When using the multiplication-acceleration mechanism of the cycle, the initial factor in the cycle is considered to be various external impulses that activate this mechanism. At the same time, a kind of barriers (limits) in the economy are identified, which are objective obstacles to the increase (reduction) of certain economic values. For example, the level of employment objectively acts as a kind of physical barrier beyond which the growth of real income cannot "step over". By hitting the full employment ceiling, real income growth stops even though demand continues to rise. But if real income cannot increase, then derivative investments are reduced to zero, because their level depends not on the volume of income, but on its growth. Hence, a drop in total demand and income is inevitable, which causes a cumulative drop in the economy as a whole.

The cumulative process of the fall, according to this point of view, also cannot continue indefinitely. The barrier for it is the amount of depreciated capital, i.e. the volume of negative investments, which cannot exceed the value of this capital. As soon as negative net investments in the process of falling reach a given, maximum for them, value, their volume no longer changes, and as a result, the decline in income begins to slow down. But if the negative value of income slows down, then negative net investment also decreases, which leads to an increase in income. Income growth, in turn, will lead to an increase in capital derivatives and, therefore, an aggregate increase in demand and income.

The state can act as a generator of the business cycle. Research on the role of the state in identifying the causes of crises and cycles in the present stage is primarily associated with the theories of the equilibrium business cycle and the political business cycle.

The theory of the equilibrium business cycle is associated primarily with the ideas of monetarists. According to these ideas of the state in many western countries in the post-war period they perform the function of a kind of generators of monetary "shocks" that bring the economic system out of equilibrium, and thus maintain cyclical fluctuations in the economy. If the government, pursuing an expansionist policy, increases the growth rate of the amount of money in circulation, then after a certain (several months) delay, the growth rate of nominal GNP begins to accelerate, approximately corresponding to the growth of the money supply. At the same time, at first, practically all acceleration in the growth of nominal GNP will represent an increase in real output, accompanied by a decrease in unemployment. As the expansion phase continues, an increase in GNP will simply mean an increase in the absolute price level. If the growth rate of the money supply in circulation slows down, then the corresponding reactions of nominal and real GNP, as well as the absolute price level, are reversed. M. Friedman and A. Schwartz proved the possibility of the influence of money on the development of the business cycle on the example of studying the dynamics of money circulation in the United States for the period 1867-1960.

In the 1970s-1980s. the point of view that the state itself is often a generator of cyclical phenomena in the economy has been actively developed by representatives of such a direction as the theory of rational expectations.

Economists adhering to this direction believe that entrepreneurs and the population, thanks to the ongoing information revolution, have learned so much to assess and recognize the true motives of certain economic decisions of state bodies that they can always respond in a timely manner to government decisions in accordance with their own benefit. As a result of the goal public policy may remain unrealized, but the phenomena of economic recession or recovery caused by certain actions of the state become more pronounced, so that even small (initially) drops in the level of economic activity may turn into cyclical. Suppose the economy is showing a downward trend. The state, trying to overcome it, lowers the tax on capital investments, namely, it provides, for example, entrepreneurs with a discount that allows them not to pay tax on 10% of their investment expenses. Such a measure will undoubtedly lead to an increase in investment spending, which will stimulate demand and thereby prevent a downturn in the economy. Such a chain of events will serve as evidence for government agencies that fiscal policy is a good tool for smoothing out cycling. But if at the onset of the next recession at least some of the entrepreneurs decide that they should not rush to invest until the state cuts the tax, then the result will be a temporary delay in investment.

The postponement of investment will first lead to an intensification of the already outlined recession, and then, when the government actually cuts the tax, - to a stronger than usual flow of investment. As a result, the state, with its countercyclical policy, will intensify both the recession phase and the recovery phase in the economy, i.e. will exacerbate rather than mitigate cyclical fluctuations.

The political business cycle theory is based on the following assumptions. First, it is assumed that the relationship between unemployment and inflation is determined by the Phillips curve type, i.e. there is an inverse relationship between these values: the lower the unemployment rate, the faster prices grow (it is assumed that price changes depend not only on the current level of employment, but also on past values, i.e., that inflation has a certain inertia). Secondly, the premise is accepted that the economic situation within the country significantly affects the popularity of the ruling party. The main economic indicators, to which the population reacts, the inflation rates and the unemployment rate are highlighted, and it is believed that the lower their level, the more votes will be cast in the upcoming elections for the ruling party (or the president), other things being equal. Thirdly, the main goal of the internal economic policy of the ruling party is to ensure its victory in the next parliamentary (presidential) elections.

Based on these three prerequisites, the general scheme of the political business cycle is characterized. Its meaning is as follows. The government, in an effort to ensure the victory of its party in the elections, takes measures to shape and maintain the combination of inflation and unemployment rates that are most acceptable to voters. To this end, the administration, immediately after coming to power, is making efforts to reduce the rate of price growth by artificially provoking crisis phenomena, and by the end of the period of its reign it begins to solve the opposite problem in meaning, i.e. does everything possible to "warm up" the economy and raise the level of employment. An increase in employment can, of course, cause a rise in prices. But the calculation is made on the inertia of their movement. By the time of the elections, the employment rate is rising, which attracts the approval of voters, and inflation (an inevitable subsequent negative factor) has not yet gained full strength. As a result, if implemented correctly, such policies can help attract additional votes and electoral success.

The theory of the real economic cycle. Although many Western economic schools in accordance with Keynesian traditions, the causes of business cycles are associated with changes in aggregate demand, a number of neoclassical economists in last years substantiate the thesis about the decisive role of the proposal in the formation of cycles.

From this perspective, the main reasons for the emergence of the economic cycle are considered changes in technology, availability of resources, levels of labor productivity, i.e. those factors that determine the possibilities of the aggregate supply.

According to the position of the supporters of this theory economic cycle may arise, for example, in connection with an increase in world oil prices. The rise in oil prices can make it too expensive to use some types of equipment, which will lead to a decrease in production per worker, i.e. to reduce the level of labor productivity. Decreased productivity means that the economy creates a smaller real product, i.e. the aggregate supply is decreasing. But if the volumes of the aggregate supply decrease, then, therefore, the need for the amount of money also decreases (since a smaller mass of goods and services is served), and hence the volumes moneyborrowed by entrepreneurs from banks. All this will lead to a reduction in the supply of money, which will cause a decrease in aggregate demand, and to the same extent as the initial decrease in aggregate supply. As a result, the total volume of real equilibrium production will decrease at a constant price level (i.e., a situation will develop similar to the Keynesian model, according to which it is assumed that real output can be reduced at a constant price level).

More on the subject 14.3. REASONS OF BUSINESS CYCLES. MULTIPLICATION-ACCELERATION MECHANISM OF CYCLES:

1. 14.3 BUSINESS CYCLE REASONS MULTIPLICATION-ACCELERATION MECHANISM OF CYCLES

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The economy is not static. She, like a living being, is constantly changing. The level of production and employment of the population changes, demand rises and falls, prices for goods rise, stock indices collapse. Everything is in a state of dynamics, eternal circulation, periodic decline and growth. Such periodic fluctuations are called business or economic cycle... The cyclical nature of the economy is characteristic of any country with a market type of management. Economic cycles are an inevitable and necessary element of the development of the world economy.

Economic cycle: concept, reasons and phases

(economic cycle) - periodically recurring fluctuations in the level of economic activity.

Another name for the economic cycle is business cycle (business cycle).

In fact, the economic cycle is an alternating growth and decline in business activity (social production) in a particular state or in the whole world (some region).

It is worth noting that although we are talking here about the cyclical nature of the economy, in fact, these fluctuations in business activity are irregular and poorly predictable. Therefore, the word "cycle" is rather arbitrary.

Reasons for economic cycles:

• economic shocks (impulse effects on the economy): technological breakthroughs, the discovery of new energy resources, wars;
• unplanned increase in stocks of raw materials and goods, investment in fixed assets;
• changes in raw material prices;
• seasonal nature agriculture;
• the struggle of trade unions for higher wages and job security.

It is customary to distinguish 4 main phases of the economic (business) cycle, they are shown in the figure below:

The main phases of the economic (business) cycle: rise, peak, decline and bottom.

Economic Cycle Period - the time interval between two identical states of business activity (peaks or troughs).

It should be noted that, despite the cyclical nature of fluctuations in the GDP level, its long-term trend has upward trend... That is, the peak of the economy is also replaced by a depression, but each time these points move higher and higher on the chart.

Main phases of the economic cycle :

1. Rise (revival; recovery) - growth in production and employment.

Inflation is low and demand is on the rise as consumers rush to make purchases delayed during the previous crisis. Innovative projects are introduced and quickly pay off.

2. Peak - the highest point of economic growth, characterized by a maximum of business activity.

The unemployment rate is very low or virtually nonexistent. Production facilities work as efficiently as possible. Inflation usually increases as the market becomes saturated with goods and competition increases. The payback period is increasing, business is taking more and more long-term loans, the possibility of repayment of which is decreasing.

3. Recession (recession, crisis; recession) - a decrease in business activity, production volumes and investment levels, leading to an increase in unemployment.

Overproduction of goods is observed, prices are falling sharply. As a consequence, the volume of production decreases, which leads to an increase in unemployment. This causes a decrease in the income of the population and, accordingly, a decrease in effective demand.

A particularly long and deep recession is called depression (depression).

The Great Depression Show

One of the most famous and long-lasting world crises - “ The Great Depression» ( Great depression) lasted about 10 years (from 1929 to 1939) and affected a number of countries: USA, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany and others.

In Russia, the term "Great Depression" is often used only in relation to America, whose economy was hit particularly hard by this crisis in the 1930s. It was preceded by a landslide drop in the share price that began on October 24, 1929 (Black Thursday).

The exact causes of the Great Depression are still a matter of debate among economists around the world.

4. Bottom (trough) - the lowest point of business activity, characterized by a minimum level of production and maximum unemployment.

During this period, a surplus of goods diverges (some at low prices, some simply deteriorate). The fall in prices stops, production volumes increase slightly, but trade is still sluggish. Therefore, capital, not finding application in trade and production, flows to banks. This increases the supply of money and leads to a decrease in interest on loans.

It is believed that the "bottom" phase is usually not long. However, as history shows, this rule does not always work. The already mentioned "Great Depression" lasted for 10 years (1929-1939).

Types of economic cycles

Modern economics more than 1 380 different types of business cycles are known. Most often you can find a classification according to the duration and frequency of cycles. In accordance with it, the following are distinguished types of economic cycles :

1. Short-term Kitchin cycles - duration 2-4 years.

These cycles were discovered back in the 1920s by the English economist Joseph Kitchin. Kitchin attributed such short-term fluctuations in the economy to changes in world gold reserves.

Of course, today such an explanation can no longer be considered satisfactory. Modern economists explain the existence of Kitchin cycles time lags - delays in obtaining by firms of commercial information necessary for making decisions.

For example, when the market is saturated with a product, it is necessary to reduce the volume of production. But, as a rule, such information does not come to the enterprise immediately, but with a delay. As a result, resources are wasted and a surplus of hard-to-sell goods is formed in warehouses.

2. Medium-term Juglar cycles - duration 7-10 years.

For the first time, this type of economic cycle was described by the French economist Clement Juglar, after whom they were named.

If in Kitchin's cycles there are fluctuations in the level of utilization of production capacities and, accordingly, in the volume of inventories, then in the case of Juglar's cycles we are already talking about fluctuations in the volume of investments in fixed assets.

Kitchin cycle information lags add delays between adoption investment decisions and the acquisition (creation, construction) of production facilities, as well as between the decline in demand and the elimination of production capacity that has become redundant.

Therefore, Juglar's cycles are longer than Kitchin's cycles.

3. Rhythms of the Blacksmith - duration 15-20 years.

Named for the American economist and Nobel laureate Simon Kuznets, who discovered them in 1930.

The blacksmith explained such cycles by demographic processes (in particular, the influx of immigrants) and changes in the construction industry. Therefore, he called them "demographic" or "building" cycles.

Today the rhythms of Kuznets are considered by some economists as “technological” cycles, conditioned by the renewal of technologies.

4. Long waves of Kondratieff - duration 40-60 years.

Discovered by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratyev in the 1920s.

Kondratyev's cycles (K-cycles, K-waves) are explained by important discoveries in the framework of scientific and technological progress (steam engine, railways, electricity, internal combustion engine, computers) and the resulting changes in the structure of social production.

These are the 4 main types of economic cycles in terms of duration. a number of researchers distinguish two more types of larger cycles:

5. Forrester cycles - duration 200 years.

Explained by the change of materials and energy sources used.

6. Toffler's cycles - duration 1000-2000 years.

Due to the development of civilizations.

Basic properties of the economic cycle

Economic cycles are very diverse, have different duration and nature, but most of them can be distinguished by common features.

Basic properties of economic cycles :

1. They are inherent in all countries with a market type of economy;
2. Despite the negative consequences of crises, they are inevitable and necessary, since they stimulate the development of the economy, forcing it to ascend to ever higher levels of development;
3. In any cycle, 4 typical phases can be distinguished: rise, peak, decline, bottom;
4. The fluctuations in business activity that form the cycle are influenced by not one, but many reasons:
   - seasonal changes, etc .;
   - demographic fluctuations (for example, “demographic holes”);
   - differences in the service life of the elements of fixed capital (equipment, transport, buildings);
   - the unevenness of scientific and technological progress, etc .;
5. IN modern world the nature of economic cycles is changing, under the influence of the processes of economic globalization - in particular, a crisis in one country will inevitably affect other countries of the world.

Interesting neo-Keynesian hicks-Frisch business cycle modelwhich has strict logic.

The neo-Keynesian model of the Hicks-Frisch business cycle.

According to the Hicks-Frisch business cycle model, cyclical fluctuations are caused by autonomous investments, i.e. investments in new products, new technologies, etc. Autonomous investments do not depend on income growth, but on the contrary - cause it. An increase in income leads to an increase in investments depending on the amount of income: multiplier effect - accelerator.

But economic growth cannot be unlimited. Growth limiting barrier is full-time (line AA).

Since the economy has reached full employment, further growth in aggregate demand does not lead to an increase in the national product. As a result, the growth rate of wages begins to outstrip the growth rate of the national product, which becomes inflation factor... The rise in inflation has a negative effect on the state of the economy: the business activity of economic entities falls, the growth of real incomes slows down, and then they fall.

The accelerator now acts in the opposite direction.

This continues until the economy hits the line BB – negative net investment (when the net investment is insufficient even to replace the worn-out fixed capital). Competition is intensifying, the desire to reduce production costs prompts financially stable firms to start renewing fixed capital, which provides an economic recovery.

Galyautdinov R.R.

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When we consider issues of the mechanism of the cycle, we must separate the concept of the mechanism of the economic cycle and the concept of the mechanism of the economic crisis. These concepts are related to each other, but far from identical.

Business cycle mechanism is a set of interconnections in the economy that prevent the economy from achieving long-term equilibrium, rejecting the development trajectory economic processes from a trajectory directly leading to a state of equilibrium; or that prevent an economy that has reached equilibrium at a non-zero rate from stopping at that point. For example, in the mechanism of the investment business cycle, these are economic relationships that force firms to continue investing after reaching the optimal capital-labor ratio.

There is no consensus on the mechanism of the cyclical development of the economy. On the contrary, there are a huge number of theories explaining the economic cycle. Now we will consider the main theories.