The basic concepts of demography and dynamics of the population. Types and features of the reproduction of human resources. "Demographic Winter" in Europe Demographic Winter and Spring

"We are at the crossroads, or we will do something, or will be very late."

Demographic Winter envelops the land ... reacted in some countries, it closely approached others. How many years left before its complete domination on earth?

Over the past 50 years, a fifty-percent fall in the birth rate occurred. Half of the world's population - 59 countries, 44% of the world's population - do not reproduce themselves. In order for the nation to reproduce itself, the fertility coefficient should be 2.1. Today in Europe this level is 1.3. By 2050, Russia will lose a third of the population. Such data are given in the film "Demographic Winter". Filmed in 2008 in the United States, the film tells about scary figures and sober forecasts. Russia in this filmmaker every time is mentioned as one of the worst examples.

Who will work in factories, who will cultivate land, who will guard borders? We are already looking into the eyes of a world catastrophe, deemed demographers. different countriesThe absolute tragedy remains very little time.

The birth rate fell so low that even immigrants cannot fill the rapidly disappearing nations. Migration can only submit developing countries where the fertility also falls quickly. "It did not have any poor nor the rich countries of the Western and Eastern Hemispheres, the birth rate falls around the world," Philip Longman reminds, the author of the film "Demographic Winter".

The fall in the birth rate is not so noticeable with the unarmed look for one reason - people stopped dying like flies, remind the authors of the film.

With a decrease " human capital"The decline in the global economy will increase, says the Nobel laureate of 1992 in the field of economics Gary Becker. The engine of the economy is waiting for the deformation, because today's employees will not be shifted, and the aging population will need to support and ensure. The young working population will simply be needed to provide the elder. generation. So, either only those who work today in the hope of not staying without a piece of bread on pensions will throw out overboard or all the modern economic system will come down with rail.

"Human capital is expressed in knowledge and skills, and economic development Directly depends on progress in the field of technical and scientific knowledge, development directly depends on the accumulation of human capital, "says Gary Becker.

Attempts to upgrade with social engineering services led to the fact that children grow in incomplete broken families, where parents are not at home, and where parents are not going to give birth a lot of children. Who live in the terrible era of demographic winter? Our children and grandchildren.

"Alas, many Western elites seem to notice these science speaking that culture of a strong and healthy family is necessary for the social, economic and psychological health of the most defenseless family members - children," says V. Bradford Wilkox, Doctor of Science, Associate Professor Sociology University of Virginia, lead author of the book "Why is marriage?".

Code will come point of no return? Experts make it difficult to answer, no one is clear how much we can remain deaf to what is happening. How long we will roll down the inclined plane, without realizing it yourself.

The authors of the project "Demographic Winter" are confident that it is necessary to start with the revival of the traditional family. Today, talking about the traditional family is firmly correct. Young people have no incentive to create a traditional, legitimate, strong family.

IN modern society Tolerance It is believed that all forms of cohabitation, unnatural homosexual cohabitation, unregistered marriages must be respected, appreciate and equate to the traditional family. If it continues so, then we can not avoid the worst end of civilization.

But the point is not even in unnatural forms of cohabitation - in Europe, young people are still married in Europe, they live longer with their parents, and as a result, they are becoming more infantal. "Children-Men", playing computer games, reading empty magazines, watching cartoons - so called their film authors. They postpone the acceptance of the responsibility for the family and postpone the birth of children.

"The old practice led to the destruction of the family and the whole public dispensation. Instead of building a developed society, we practically lost the only effective means of development - family," says Christina de Volmer, the President of the Latino-American Family Alliance.

According to the UN estimates, the continuation of today's tendencies will lead to the fact that 2050 will be 248 million less than 5 years old than today.

In more than 59 countries of the world there is a decline of the population.

The population of Russia is reduced by 700,000 people per year. If existing trends continue, it is believed in 43 Russia will lose half of the population.

To fill the existing population, the family should have 2.1 children, the birth rate in Europe is 1.3.

Due to the lack of children in Germany in 2006, more than 230 schools were closed.

To make a pension to the generation of "Bebi Board", the United States will have to double taxes.

The lack of babies in Japan led to economic recession, resulting in their stock market and market real Estate Lost more than 60% of their value for only 14 years.

The Chinese program of one child led to the fact that 78 million men will not be able to create a family - there are not enough women in China.

It is impossible to stop many of these trends. But we can still make every effort to prevent disasters.

In the draft "Demographic Winter", hundreds of professors, researchers, sociologists, demographers from all countries of the world take part. They are not just concerned, they beat the alarm. The key ideas of the project can be briefly formulated as follows:

- The world is on the verge of extinction.

- If today the fertility does not begin to rise, after a few decades, our children will not be able to provide a colossal number of pensioners.

- It is necessary to revive the traditional family - in the cohabitants without registration of marriage, people tend to not give birth to several children.

- The Institute of Family is largely destroyed by all numerous programs of recent years.

- Material stimulation does not lead to an increase in the birth rate. As an example, the authors of the project lead Russia, where maternal capital 10 times the average is a good salary. For our part, we can remember Europe, where the child's benefit makes it possible to fully maintain it, but the birth rate falls as rapidly. The main incentive of the birth of children is personal and religious.

- The worst situation for today is in Russia, only we can soon disappear half of the population.

The time of conversations ended, we have the last chance to act so that our children do not make the severity of the whole world.

We will continue to acquaint readers with the project "Demographic Winter" in subsequent materials.

what is the demographic "spring"? And got the best answer

Answer from Winter37 [newcomer]
There are two types of reproduction in the world: (population)
1. "Demographic Winter" - low fertility and mortality rates (natural increase -3, mortality - 10, fertility - 13) is characteristic of economically developed countries (France, Japan, etc.).
2. "Demographic Spring" is characterized by a high birth rate and natural population growth (50 people per 1000), distributed in developing countries (countries of Africa, Latin America, South and South-East Asia).
The first type can still be called intense. It is due to an increase in the level and quality of life of people, the growth of the elderly population and the average life expectancy based on progressive changes in society.
The second type is called extensive - when there is a high birth rate and natural growth, the predominance in the structure of the population of the young part, the low share of the older generation without qualitative changes in society and the economy. In general, these are developing countries that are characterized by very low common mortality rates due to the young age structure. At the same time, the level of generic indicators is higher than in economically developed countries.

Answer from 2 response[guru]

Hey! Here is a selection of topics with answers to your question: What is the demographic "spring"?

A combination of such indicators as mortality and fertility causes in a particular society features of the resumption of generations. The main trend of demographic development consists of a gradual decrease in both the birth rate and mortality. The dynamics of both these indicators, their ratio, and, consequently, the natural increase is different both in space and in time.

In this article we will look at the various types of population reproduction, describe in detail each of them, we give examples.

Concept of "demographic transition"

The evolution of mortality and fertility is reflected in the concept of "demographic transition". This theory is that it is due primarily by socio-economic factors, and not biological. According to this presentation, different regions And the countries of the world, the demographic situation has a similar trend of its development. First there are high rates of mortality and fertility, and then mortality gradually begins to decrease due to the fact that economic and social conditionsAnd the fertility is preserved at the same level or decreases much slower. After some time, both of these indicators stabilize gradually at a low level.

Different regions of the Earth and the country in accordance with public evolution are today at different stages of their demographic development, thereby simultaneously there are several types of reproduction, which are characterized by a combination of relevant demographic indicators.

Archetype

The earliest and first of them are called an archetype, corresponds to the phase of the so-called "demographic transition". The archetype dominated the primitive society at the stage of the appropriate economy, and today it is very rare, for example, in some Indian tribes of Amazonia. These peoples have mortality so high that the number of their inhabitants can decline. There are other types of population reproduction. We present you the next.

"Traditional" type

The second type of population reproduction, called "patriarchal", or "traditional", exists when the material base is developed weak, there is a strong dependence of people from the forces of nature. Dominates a similar type in the agrarian or industrial society in its early stages. The main distinguishing features of it is a very high fertility, but at the same time mortality, low life expectancy of the population. People are focused on the maximum number of births. Cultural and social traditions are encouraged to be encouraged, which contributes to the best functioning in the agricultural society of the family. High mortality is a consequence that the standard of living of these people is low, they eat poorly and are engaged in difficult labor, they receive insufficient medical care.

In many developing countries (Brazil, Mexico, Philippines, etc.), this "traditional" type of reproduction has changed over the past decades. Significantly reduced the mortality rate (up to 6-10%), since health care was improved, in particular, the successes of medicine in combating various infectious diseases were noted. However, a traditionally high birth rate is maintained. The population growth as a result of this is very large, it is about 2.5-3% per year. These countries with a type called "transition" are predetermined in the second half of the 20th century, high population growth rates.

"Modern" type

We continue to tell you about the features of mortality and fertility in different states. Types of population reproduction are complemented by another one. The next, third, so-called "rational", or "modern," takes place when moving to the industrial economy from agricultural, decrease dependence on nature. The conditions of demographic relations are changing in a radically, they become more flexible, so allowing broad freedom personal choice. The "modern" type of reproduction of the population is marked by a reduced birth rate, the mortality rate close to the average on the planet, a small natural increase, as well as a high life expectancy. It is present in economically developed states with more high levels Culture and life of the population. Low fertility is closely connected here with a conscious choice of family size, there is large percentage Elderly, which affects mortality. In Denmark and Germany, mortality prevails over it, therefore, the number increases only by migration.

These are the main types of population reproduction.

Two types in the fertility rate

Today in most countries mortality rates differ insignificantly. But it should be noted that the reasons for this provision in them are different. For example, in Western Europe There are conditions, much more favorable in socio-economic terms than in developing countries. The average life expectancy, respectively, is higher, but the mortality rates are comparable, and sometimes there are higher than in some developing countries. This is because in Western Europe there are a large number of people of old age (that is, the so-called "aging of the nation" occurs). Consequently, according to one of the approaches, the types are divided mainly only in the fertility rate. Thus, the following types of population reproduction can be distinguished (there are only two of them).

"Demographic Winter"

The first of them is called "demographic winter", a small birth rate is marked (up to 15%), as well as an average or low mortality rate. Natural growth, as a result, for countries with " demographic winter"Quite low - it does not exceed ten percent. The first type of reproduction of the country's population is characteristic of states developed economically. In countries with it, there may be even demographic crises, in other words, natural loss of population.

"Demographic Spring"

Second type (" demographic Spring") It has high fertility rates, therefore, a large natural increase. With similar reproduction, mortality can be medium, sometimes low. It includes developing states.

It should be noted that the division of territories and countries on the types of population reproduction is very conditional. There are many states, demographic development in which does not have pronounced traits of a particular type. Therefore, in order to characterize the countries in the demographic basis, sometimes specific indicators of the population increases. Thus can be distinguished, thus five groups. They are characterized by natural increase: very high, high, medium, low and negative.

One of the most important tasks facing the geographic sciences studying population is the identification of a demographic situation (situation), understood as a state at a certain period of demographic processes, which is a certain stage of a long-term trend in which the population is developing. In order to analyze it, it is necessary to determine the mode and type of reproduction of a separate social community or territory, for which the most important demographic indicators are used.

China Population Reproduction Type

China is a state that has recently experienced great changes in social sphere. At this time, this country is characterized by the first type of population reproduction - small mortality rates and fertility.

The policy of a state of birth restriction (one child in the family) has recently brought its fruits. In China, today it is approximately 1.7-1.8 (that is, this is the number of children entering the average mother), while for simple reproduction, a coefficient 2.1 is required.

Population of this country in last years Slowly increases due to the fact that the life expectancy is growing, and not due to the birth rate. The share of older people is constantly increasing in China, which is also an indicator characteristic of countries that make up the first type of population reproduction.

The transition from the second to the first one also contributed to the economic development committed rapidly in recent decades. All this improves demographic situation countries. Today it is clear that it can be said that the type of reproduction of China's population is the first.

Number and reproduction population

Lesson plan:

• Modern state of numbers
• Features of the reproduction of the population
• Demographic Policy
• Quality of the population

Concepts on the topic:

8, 9 class from

Grade 10

Demography

Mortality

Birthday

Natural increase

Depopulation

Reproduction of the population

Type of reproduction

Population explosion"

Demographic "Spring"

Demographic "Winter"

"Aging nation"

Demographic Policy

Phases of demographic transition

Increase in number by 1 billion

Year

Population, billion selovek

Time of achievements billion increase (years)

The whole previous story

The increase in the population of the world in 1950-2000:

Population,

million people

Annual increase, million people

The task.

Table 2 analysis in tutorial (block 4, p. 56)

Which regions do the growth rate indicate the rate higher than the average world?

The proportion of developed and developing countries in the population of the world

Output. 90% of the entire world population increases in developing countries and their share in the world population continues to grow.

The average annual increase in the population

• 1970s (average annual increase - 2%, or 20 people per 1000 inhabitants),
• in 1980, he amounted to 1.8%;
• in 1985-1990 - 1.7%;
• in the first half of the 1990s - 1.6%;
• in 1995 - 1.5%.

The population of the countries of the world (for 2007)

Country

China

Population

(thousand people)

1 321 851,9

India

Part of light

Asia

1 129 866,2

Indonesia

Asia

301 139,9

North America

Brazil

234 694,0

Asia

190 010,6

Pakistan

South America

Bangladesh

164 741,9

the Russian Federation

Asia

150 448,3

Asia

Nigeria

141 377,8

Japan

135 031,2

Europe

Africa

127 433,5

Asia

Forecast of changes in leaders countries in numbers by 2050:

1. India - 1,572,055,000.

2. China - 1,462,058,000.

3. USA - 397,063,000.

4. Pakistan - 344,170,000.

5. Indonesia - 311,335,000.

6. Nigeria - 278 788,000.

7. Bangladesh - 265,432,000.

8. Brazil - 247 244,000.

9. Congo - 203,527,000.

10. Ethiopia - 186 452.

Reproduction

Birthday

Mortality

Natural increase

Positive

Negative

Demographic situation

Birthfall factors

Natural biological

Demographic

Socio-economic

1 marriage, divorce, marital status;

2. Miscellaneous time to achieve puberty in countries with hot and cold climates;

3. An indicator of child mortality;

4. Population of the population;

5. Urbanization level;

6. Age structure;

7. General level welfare;

8. Level of education.

Factors influencing fertility

Natural biological

Demographic

Socio-economic

1, 3 , 5, 7, 8

… and minimum fertility rates

… and minimum mortality rates

Reproduction of the population

THE TASK. Write out 5 countries with the largest and smallest indicators of natural population growth.

Parents I Type I Type II Type "Aging of Nation" "Rejuvenation of the Nation" Depopulation Population explosion "Demographic Winter" "Demographic Spring" "width \u003d" 640 "

Types of reproduction

Narrowed Plain Advanced

Children Parents children \u003d parents children Parents

I. a type I. a type II. a type

"Aging nation" "Rejuvenation of the nation"

Depopulation Population explosion

"Demographic Winter" "Demographic Spring"

Comparison

types of reproduction of the population

Comparable traits

First type

reproduction

1. Level of birth

Second Type

reproduction

2. Mortality rate

3 Natural Growth

4. "The formula of reproduction" of the population

5. In which countries are common

5. Share of children

7. Share of older people

8. What is the direction demographic Policy.

Demographic Policy -

this is a system of administrative, economic, propaganda and other events, with the help of which the state affects the natural movement of the population (primarily on the birth rate) in the desired direction

Demographic Policy aimed at:

Demographic policy in the countries of the first type of reproduction is aimed at increasing the rate of birth.

Examples of countries conducted by active demographic policies can serve as France or Japan, which have developed such stimulating economic measures as:

a) one-time loan to the newlyweds;

b) benefits at the birth of every child;

in) monthly benefits for kids,

d) Paid holidays and others.

Demographic policy in the countries of the second type of reproduction is aimed at reducing fertility.

Examples of countries can serve as China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Latin America and North Africa.

Family planning programs

legislative increase in the age of marriage,

propaganda advantages of an adequate family, stimulating the fracture with the help of various kinds of economic and administrative measures.

Demographic Policy Example 1.

In France, a wide system was introduced into practice cash payments Families aimed at encouraging the birth of the first, second and especially the third child.

Here the birth of the third and fourth child is actively encouraged, one-time child's birth allowance in the amount of 260% of the main salary at the first and 717% per subsequent child, pregnancy leave is paid in the amount of 90% salary. Located loans for housekeeping and housing benefits, 90% of which are repaid at the birth of a fourth child. The socio-demographic policy of France has become a kind of reference in the Western world. On this path, the Government, Austria, Italy, Sweden and other European countries are coming.

Demographic Policy Example 2.

In China:

a) a child planning committee is established;

b) late age for marriage: men -22, women are 20 years old;

c) for one child in the family the state pays over monthly;

d) political motto: "One family is one child"

Demographic transition

• Stage 1: high birth rate and mortality
• Stage 2: high fertility and reduction of mortality (demographic explosion)
• 3 Stage: low birth rate and low mortality
• 4 stage: mortality exceeds fertility (depopulation)

Countries - Leaders and Outsiders

by duration of life

Country

Maximum

indicators

Andorra

San Marino.

Country

Sierra Leone

Minimum

indicators

Japan

Australia

Guinea-Bisau.

Sweden, Switzerland

Rwanda

Uganda

Canada, Iceland

Malawi

Afghanistan, Guinea

What do you think…

• 1. What is the associated stabilization of the population in developed countries of Europe?
• What is the "zero increase" of the population?
• Does not lead a demographic policy to infringement of human rights?

Task for the house:

• from. 51-60 textbook

To conduct a sociological study in your families, find out: how many children have your grandmother, great-grandmothers, great-grandmothers.

Build a schedule illustrating the change in the number of children in the family.

Analyze it and draw conclusions.

Reflect the reasons for changing the number of children in the family.

what is demographic spring and winter? And got the best answer

Answer from Colin [Guru]
Distinguish between two types of population reproduction:
I type - demographic winter - characterized for economically highly developed countries as a whole, as well as for the post-Soviet space. It is characterized by low fertility and mortality rates, close to 0 natural increase, and for some countries and natural loss of the population.
The type of reproduction is called demographic spring. It is characteristic of Africa, Asia and Latin America, and it is characterized by high fertility rates and relatively low mortality. Relatively low mortality is now characteristic of almost the whole world, and this is due, first of all, with great progress of medicine in the fight against epidemics and child mortality. The high birth rate in developing countries is largely related to national and religious traditions and the lack of family planning opportunities. The birth of children here is on the principle of "how much God gives, so much is born."
A source:

Answer from Joker[newcomer]
i think so I think)

Answer from Alexey Kushina[active]
fertility of children

Answer from Natalia Chudakova[active]
demography - fertility or population growth, in this case Seasonal

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