What processes relate to the economic recession. Economic cycles. Features of economic cycles in modern conditions

"The existence of long-term economic" lifts "and" falls "does not cause any doubt. The history of any country taken for a rather long period of time shows it with a high degree of reliability. " P. A. Sorokin

In this statement, the problem of oscillations of the economic activity of countries is affected, which otherwise can be called economic cycles. This problem is relevant today, when the need for economic recovery and overcoming the crisis is particularly acute.

The meaning of the statement is that replacing each other economic lifts and decals are inevitable for each country, because at the heart economic growth Lies cyclical economy. The position of the author about unevenness, unpredictable economic development for any power can be confirmed by examples from world history.

First, except for global, economic cycles exist in each individual country and in their own way correlate with lies and decals of a global scale. So, up to the 20s. Xx in. Economic cycles in Russia practically coincided with global, but then everything changed: the 1960s were the time of lifting in the USSR at the expense of scientific and technological progress, and the 1980-90s were considered a decline, the result of the collapse of the central planning economy.

Secondly, speaking of "fall" in the economy, I want to dwell on the characteristics of the most important stage - the crisis.

The crisis is not a permanent situation and is necessarily replaced by the "revival" phase. For example, after a protracted crisis in the USA - Great Depression (1929-1939), the restoration of the American economy took about 20 years. Finally, the United States came out of depression only in the 50s: for the first time such civilized forms of regulation of economic and social Lifewho were absent in the United States. And further, in the years after the Second World War, the United States was already at the stage of lifting, which was reflected in the state economy of our days.

Thus, the economic cyclicity is inherent in each country, because each country has individual economic development and certain internal and foreign policy events affecting its history.

Updated: 2018-02-03

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• "The foundations of each state and the foundation of any country are resting at justice and justice" M as-Samarkandi

The economy of all countries of the world develops unevenly. Continuous changes occur in it, the economic cycles and crises alternate. If they can be portrayed to be noted that the processes occurring on the macroeconomic level can be displayed in the form of wave-like segments. Consider what and its phases.

The economic cycle is a period between two higher or lower points on the chart. There are the following phases of the economic cycle: crisis, depression, revival and rise.

1. The crisis is characterized by the following economic situation. There is a much greater number of bankruptcies of firms. They cannot sell the goods accumulated in warehouses, therefore it drops sharply, and therefore solvency. There is no possibility to pay on accounts with suppliers, employees, tax authorities etc. As a result, the bankruptcy of each enterprise has an impact on the whole environment. Suppliers do not receive payment for shipped materials, which increases their costs and can also lead to bankruptcy. Employees do not receive their wages, which significantly reduces the quality of their lives. They cannot acquire new products, they suffer from trading enterprises. In the event of bankruptcy, all employees of the enterprise are reduced, as a result of which unemployment occurs. Other negative manifestations in the country's economy: mass loan defaults, mortgage, significant decline in securities courses, elimination of many credit organizations. Thus, during the crisis, absolutely everything is suffering during the crisis, negative affects any scope of activity.
2. Depression - phase, following a crisis. At this point, the decline in production is suspended. Prices for goods reach their minimum. Consumers gradually buy reserves stored in the warehouses of the enterprise. Thereby appears again cash capital. During depression, there is a minimum of such indicators as the rate bank interest, level, etc. Unemployment reaches its maximum value. The bright example of this cycle may be the depression of the 30s of the 20th century, when millions of people remained without work, tens of thousands of enterprises went bankrupt, including very large ones. People were taken for any job to feed their family and pay mortgages, as they could be on the street at any time.
3. Revival - on this negative phase of the economic cycle ends. Now production again begins to gain momentum. Warehouses are filled with goods. It is necessary to ensure in the market uninterrupted delivery of products. Since production revived, new jobs appear, which means that the quality of life is reduced significantly increases, and prices begin to grow again. There is an increase in different price categories. People are increasingly starting to give preference to luxury products. New enterprises arise, investors with a big hunt invest their funds in gold, securities etc. There is a real flourishing of the country's economy.
4. Climb. These are all positive phases of the economic cycle. Enterprises produce products in those volumes that were in the pre-crisis period. Unemployment reaches the minimum value. The quality of life is most high, which allows trading enterprises to make a big mark-up for their products. And at the same time, the fall in demand for their products does not occur.

We reviewed four main phases of the economic cycle. They are constantly repeated in the economy of each developing or developed country.

National revenue of the United States (on the specific labor, investment, rent and net profit)

As we can see, the share of profits is rather reduced, and the share of investments is rather increasing, although the amount of profit and investment, taken together, remains permanent. In any case, the numbers do not confirm the cash concentration trend in the hands of a few and, as we have seen, do not confirm the theory of constant impoverishment of lower classes. Comparison wages And the profits for 60 years shows that salary and profit moved up approximately one and the same pace. This is seen from the following table 3.

An analysis of the distribution of income between families gives the same result. It shows a slight increase in the concentration of wealth in the hands of several very rich families. But at the same time, pronounced stability in the distribution of wealth over the past 70 years forces us to doubt that fluctuations in the relative share of income from different groups The population was so great to seem stunning *.

To this, it is necessary to add a relatively new phenomenon, which, however, has already attracted the attention of American economists, namely, the "property diffusion" in the United States and European countries, which has adopted huge scope over the past few decades. I will give a few examples in order to illustrate the situation. In accordance with the data of R. Binkerd, from 1918 to 1925 the number of shareholders in some industries (railways, road construction, gas, light, electricity, telephone, part of oil companies and metallurgical corporations, dozen mixed manufacturing companies) increased almost twice and reached a number 5 051 499. About half of them were replenished at the expense of employees, workers and members of companies, another half - for The expense of the rest of the public 2. The number of farmers materially interested in cooperative procurement and sale increased from 650 thousand in 1916 to 2.5 million in 1925. The number of depositors and the amount of their contributions increased, respectively, from 10.5 million and amounts of more than 11 billion in 1918 to 9 million with the amount of 21 billion in 1925. In addition, the increase in the number of shares and bondholders for the most modest estimates was at least 2.5 million 3 of these figures show only a part of the enormous diffusion process of the property, which occurs in the United States since the time of war 4. It is too loud to call this process with a revolution, but it will not be an exaggeration, if you say that the diffusion of the property completely refutes the theory of K. Marx. The concentration of industry does not mean the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few as Marx 5 thought.

Such data is provided by other countries. General increase national income in Saxony, Prussia and Denmark and, moreover, the proportion of this growth in five economic layers of the population, ranging from the richest and ending the poorest, seen from nextblowing table 6.

The condition for the stability and stability of the country's economic development is, i.e. Balance between production and consumption, cumulative demand and cumulative offer. However B. market economy The state of equilibrium is periodically violated. There is a certain cyclicity, i.e. repeatability, in the functioning of the national economyWhen periods of lifting the economy are replaced by the recession and depression periods, and then the rise and boom are again observed. Cyclicity can also be defined as a movement from one macroeconomic equilibrium To another, from one economic cycle (business cycle) to another.

Economic theory allocates a number of cycles economic development (growth): long-wave cycles expressing long-term fluctuations in economic activity with a period of about 50 years and called "Condratyev's cycles" (named Russian economist Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratieva (1892-1938); normal, or so-called large, industrial cycles with a period of 8 to 12 years ("Zhulyrara cycles"), called the name of the French economist K. Zhilura (1819-1908) for his study of industrial oscillations in France, Great Britain and USA: small cycles, or "Kitin cycles" (by the name of the American economist opened - J. Kitina (1861 - 1932), a duration of 3-4 years and covering the term that is necessary for the mass update of fixed assets.

Phase cycles

In the classic version, the economic cycle develops of four phases: Recession, depression, rise and boom. The final and source phase in the development of the cycle is overproduction of products compared with demand. In turn, overproduction occurs due to excessive investments (this leads to the surplus of capital) compared with.

Penazine capital It leads to excessive facilities, the growth of commodity reserves, slowing the turnover of capital and as a result - the fall in the income of entrepreneurs and their employees. In turn, it leads to a decrease in total demand for investments and consumer goods and services, and ultimately - to fall in GDP / ND growth rates and even reduce it with all the ensuing consequences - a fall in shares, increasing unemployment, etc. Becoming phase recession.

IN phase depression The decline in production is stopped, but remains even high, the decline in the norm of the loan interest stimulates the demand for capital, it creates prerequisites for capital accumulation. There is a new phase in the cycle movement - climbThe entrance of which the investment is grown is reduced by unemployment, the demand is growing, there is an increase in the rate of profit and interest rates. The rise of the economy often develops into boomwhen the volume of production exceeds the pre-crisis level. Everyone is involved, unemployment reaches a minimum level. accompanied by a general increase in wages and prices. As a result, actual GDP exceeds potential GDP. Becoming inflationual break. Rising business activity stops. Outside of boom, the issue of sales occurs, production is declining, GDP growth rates are sharply reduced (Fig. 23.2).

Fig. 23.2. Model of economic cycle

The terminology of the phase cycle may vary. So, the decline is often called a recession, the rise - restoration, and boom - prosperity.

Evolution of economic cycles

Industrial cycles clearly manifested themselves at the beginning of the XIX century. In 1825 in England, which at that time was the economic leader, the first economic crisis broke out. In the future, economic crises were repeated periodically after 8-12 years, gradually accepting world character.

In the first half of the XX century. The most prolonged and deep was the global crisis of 1929-1933. The fall of GDP reached in some countries more than 40%.

The post-war economic cycles were greatly influenced by HTR and state anticyclic regulation of the economy, and then the "new economy". As a result, the nature of the cycles is changing, including the depth of crises and the duration of the main phases, the gap between which has decreased from 8 to 4 years. Moreover, the most destructive crisis of the mid-70s.

In the 90s. In developed countries, wave-like fluctuations in the production process were observed without a deep decline in production, the sharpness of crisis manifestations decreased, factors opposing the lamination of production were increased. This was especially manifested in the dynamics of GDP and industrial production.

From the late 90s. XX century In the development of the US economy, Japan and the European Union countries, there was an alternation of recession periods, stagnation and low growth rates with revival periods. So, in 1999 and 2000. The average annual GDP growth in the United States was 4.1%, and in 2001 increased by only 1.2%. In 2002, GDP growth rates in the United States were noticeably accelerated, but the weakening of economic activity was observed during these years in most developed and developing countries. 2003 marked by the global economic downturn. According to UN forecasts, in the coming years, the rise in the global economy will occur unevenly and slowed down.

The economy of any, even the most developed country is not static. Its indicators are constantly changing. The economic decline is replaced by the rise, crisis - peak growth values. The cyclicality of development is peculiar to the market type of economic management. The change in the level of employment has an impact on the purchasing power of consumers, which leads, in turn, to a decrease in or increasing food prices. And this is only one example of the interconnection of indicators. Since today most countries are capitalist, then such economic conceptsAs a decline and lifting, suitable for describing and developing world economy.

History of study of economic cycles

If you build a curve of the GDP of any country, then it can be noted that the growth of this indicator is not constant. Each economic cycle consists of a period of falling social production and its lifting. However, its duration is not clearly defined. Vibrations of business activity are poorly predictable and irregular. However, there are several concepts that explain the cyclicality of the development of the economy and the time frame of these processes. The first to periodic crises drew attention to Jean Sissondi. "Classics" denied the existence of cycles. They often associated the period of economic downturn with external factors, for example, war. Sismondi drew attention to the so-called "panic of 1825", the first international crisis that occurred in peacetime. Robert Owen came to similar conclusions. He believed that the economic downturn occurs due to overproduction and absentment due to inequality in income distribution. Owen performed for state intervention and socialist way to conduct economy. Periodic crises, characteristic of capitalism, became the basis of the work of Karl Marx, who called for the Communist Revolution.

Unemployment, economic downturn and role in solving these government problems are the subject of studying John Meinard Keynes and its followers. That is this economic School Systematized the ideas about crises and proposed the first consecutive steps to eliminate their negative consequences. Keynes even tried them in practice in the United States during 1930-1933.

Major phases

The economic cycle can be divided into four periods. Among them:

• Economic lift (revival). This period is characterized by increased productivity and employment. The inflation rate is low. Buyers seek to make purchases that were postponed during the crisis. All innovative projects pay off quickly.
• Peak. This period is characterized by maximum business activity. The unemployment rate at this stage is extremely small. Production facilities are maximally downloaded. However, negative moments begin to appear: inflation and competition increase, the payback period of projects increases.
• Economic recession). This period is characterized by a decrease in entrepreneurial activity. Falls the volume of production and investment, and unemployment is growing. Depression is called a deep and long recession.
• Bottom. This period is characterized by minimum business activity. At this stage, there is the lowest level of unemployment and production. During this period, it is consumed that oversuetting of goods that was formed during peak business activity. Capital from the sphere of trade flows into banks. This leads to a decrease in the interest on loans. Typically, this phase is not extended. However, there are exceptions. For example, "Great Depression" lasted as much as ten years.

Thus, the economic cycle can be described as a period between two identical states of business activity. It is necessary to understand that despite the cyclicality, in the long run, GDP tends to grow. Economic concepts as a decline, depression and the crisis do not disappear anywhere, but each time these points are all higher.

Properties of cycles

The economic oscillations under consideration differ in both nature and duration. However, they can be distinguished by several general damn. Among them:

• The cyclicity is characteristic of all countries with market type of management.
• Crisis are the inevitable and necessary phenomenon. They stimulate the economy, forcing it to go to all the large levels of development.
• Any cycle consists of four phases.
• The cyclicity is due not to one, but a variety of different reasons.
• Due to globalization to today's crisis in one country, inevitably reflects on the economic situation in another.

Classification of periods

The modern economy allocates more than a thousand different cycles of business activity. Among them:

• Short-term cycles Joseph Kitina. They last about 2-4 years. Named in honor of the scientist who opened them. The existence of data initially explained changes in gold reserves. However, today it is believed that they are due to delays in obtaining firms necessary for the decision-making of commercial information. For example, consider the saturation of the market in goods. In this situation, manufacturers must reduce production volumes. However, information on the saturation of the market does not come immediately, but late. This leads to a crisis due to the appearance of surplus products.
• Medium-term cycles of Clemana Zhulor. They were also named after an economist who opened them. Their existence is explained by the delay between the adoption of decisions on the volume of investment in fixed assets and directly creating production capacity. The duration of the cycles of Zhulur is about 7-10 years.
• Symeon's rhythms blacksmith. They are named after the Nobel laureate, who opened them in 1930. The scientist explained their existence by demographic processes and overlapping fluctuations. However, modern economists consider the main cause of the rhythms of the Blacksmith to update technologies. Their duration is about 15-20 years.
• Long waves They were discovered by scientists, in honor of which were named, in the 1920s. Their duration is about 40-60 years. The existence of k-waves is due to the important discoveries and associated changes in the structure of social production.
• Forreser cycles lasting 200 years. Their existence is explained by the change in the materials used and energy.
• Toffler cycles lasting 1000-2000 years. Their existence is associated with indigenous changes in the development of civilization.

The reasons

Economic decline is an integral part of the development of the economy. The cyclicity is due to the following factors:

• External and internal shocks. Sometimes they are called impulse effects on the economy. These are technological breakthroughs that can change the nature of the economy, the opening of new energy carriers, armed conflicts and war.
• Unplanned increase in investments in fixed assets and stocks of goods and raw materials, For example, due to changes in legislation.
• Changing prices for production factors.
• Seasonal nature harvest in agriculture.
• The growth of the influence of trade unions, and therefore an increase in salary, and an increase in the guarantees of employment.

Economic Growth Recession: Concept and Essence

Among the modern scientists, there is still no consensus on what to consider the crisis. In the domestic literature, the time of the USSR dominated the point of view, according to which economic decals are characteristic only for capitalist countries, and with the socialist type of management, only "difficulties of growth" are possible. To date, there is a discussion between economists as to whether crises are characterized by the micro level. Essence economic crisis It is manifested in exceeding the offer compared with cumulative demand. The decline is manifested in mass bankruptcies, the growth of unemployment and reducing the purchasing power of the population. The crisis is a violation of the system balance. Therefore, he is accompanied by a number of socio-economic shocks. And for their permission, real internal and external changes are necessary.

Functions of crisis

The decline in the economic cycle is progressive by its nature. It performs the following functions:

• Remedy or high-quality conversion of outdated parts existing system.
• Approval of initially weak new elements.
• Testing system for strength.

Dynamics

During its development, the crisis is experiencing several stages:

• Latent. At this stage, the premises are only brewed, they still do not break out.
• The collapse period. At this stage, the contradictions are gaining strength, old and new elements of the system come into confrontation.
• The period of mitigation of the crisis. At this stage, the system becomes more stable, the prerequisites for revivaling in the farm are created.

Conditions of economic recession and its consequences

All crises affect public relations. During the recession state structures become much more competitive than commercial, labor market. Many institutions are becoming more corrupt, which further aggravates the situation. Also increasing popularity military service Due to the fact that young people get harder to find themselves in civilian life. The number of religious people is growing. The popularity of bars, restaurants and cafes in crisis falls. However, cheap alcohol people start buying more. Negatively reflects the crisis at leisure and culture, which is associated with a sharp drop in the purchasing power of the population.

Ways to overcome recession

The main task of the state in the context of the crisis is to solve the existing socio-economic contradictions and the help of the least protected segments of the population. Keynesians advocate active interference in the farm. They believe that economic activity can be restored by state orders. Monetarists stand for more market approach. They regulate volume cash. However, it is necessary to understand that all these are temporary measures. Despite the fact that crises are an integral part of the development, each company and the state as a whole should have a developed long-term program.