Inflation forecast for the year of the Ministry of Economic Development. Inflation rate of the Ministry of Economic Development by years. What categories of citizens can count on income indexation

In the Ministry of Economic Development, specialists have calculated since the fall of 16, what will be the inflation forecast for 2018... From the statement of the Deputy Minister for Economic Development Aleksey Vedev, a 4% inflation rate should be expected in the next two years. He also noted that in order to mitigate the situation, the Central Bank of Russia will maintain a moderately tight monetary policy.

The Russian economy, as determined by the Ministry of Economic Development, will gradually improve by 2018, and it is expected to rise in all indicators of various spheres.

How experts explain inflation

The concept of inflation is understood as a phenomenon when the channels of monetary circulation are overfilled with an excess amount of money, and this is reflected in commodity prices, which inevitably increase.

This event was called an economic phenomenon in the 20th century, despite the fact that there were facts of price growth before, especially in wartime.

The emergence of the term is associated with the reform in the national monetary system and the transition to paper notes, which are depreciated in excess of them.

Modern inflation is influenced by a complex of different factors, for example, one can say about the rapid growth of production of various kinds of goods, its structural complexity, the universality of the price system, social transfers, the emerging monopoly in some enterprises led to changes in pricing, price competition has decreased.

Efficiency in production usually increases not from lower prices, but from the growth of the profitable masses, as well as from the profitability of everyone involved in the production chain.

A prerequisite, but more often already inflation itself, can be considered price dynamics in the direction of its increase.

Forecasts Ministry of Finance and Central Bank

Official inflation forecast for 2018- this is 4 point and 8 tenths of a percent.

Savings rates, according to analysts of the Central Bank, will be reduced in the next couple of years, as well as the decline will gradually acquire an inflationary level.

Consumer demand will be restored, and the volatility of the ruble will return to the characteristics of the indicators of the 14th year.

Our responsible government agencies cope with the opinion that it will be possible to achieve 4 percent inflation from this year, and I would like to fix this figure. At the Central Bank today, this is a priority guideline in work.

About international rating agency forecast

Having analyzed the situation in the Russian economy, Fitch Ratings expressed its views on the rise in prices for goods and services this year and next. An international rating agency determined that inflation in 2018will be 5 and a half percent, such a forecast can be seen in the news feed on the analytical organization's portal.

The same year will be even more sad for the citizens, since here analysts provide information on the six percent inflation rate.

About the average annual ruble exchange rate, Fitch Ratings experts say that this year the dollar will be equal to 65 - and rubles, and in 2018 - already to 60 - and. The 2017th year should bring GDP growth by 1 and 3 tenths of a percent, and from next year - by 2 percent. Consumer spending this year will increase by a couple of percent, in 2018 this figure will rise by another half percent.

About indices - deflators reported by the Ministry of Economic Development

Many compatriots worry about economic expectations of how Russia will develop in the future. But the economic system today is rather unstable, therefore it is not easy to give exact data, any figures are given approximate.

The price trends analyzed by government experts are called deflators. They are needed by specialists to calculate prices at a specific time in each industrial sector. Therefore, the Ministry of Economic Development of the country will indicate a different price index for construction contracts and works, for agriculture, for retail and wholesale trading companies.

Inflation forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2018 speaks of its decline, gradually inflationary rates, according to preliminary data, will fall until 2030. Already in the next new year, life will become a little easier for the people of Russia. The percentage indicators in the tabular version can be seen on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development.

From there, it can be seen that the interest rates on inflation indicators in 2018 are lower than in this year, and then the situation will only be optimized, with all industrial areas expecting an economic upturn.

About predictive deflator indices with a long-term perspective by 2030, you should know that they are developed taking into account the conditions that affect the goals and objectives.

The indicators depend on many economic factors, mainly on inflation and oil prices, which periodically undergo changes, therefore, you need to periodically refer to information sources that reflect the latest data.

An econ and forecasting price growth

Rosstat published data on price growth, where it can be traced that the 15th year before last was sad with high rates, that is, about 13 percent, and already in the 16th year, price growth acquired a lower percentage, the figure fell to 5, 4.

If we consider the previous several years, there are sharp leaps, sometimes upward, then downward:

1. 14th year - 11 and 4 tenths of a percent.
2. 13th - 6 and a half percent.
3. 12th - 6 point and 6 tenths of a percent.
4. 11th - 6 point and 1 tenth of a percent.
5. 10th and 2009th years - 8 and 8 tenths of a percent.
6. 2008 - th - 13 and 3 tenths of a percent.

Inflation forecast chart for 2018 for Russia calculated by the figures for this year and the assumptions of the following:

Today, most experts and government officials speak positively about macroeconomic indicators. Stabilization is approaching, ending the fall and strengthening of the native Russian currency.

The optimism is reduced by the gold and foreign exchange reserves, which have been greatly reduced in the country today. If the sad trend continues, currency transactions will be revised, this currency will be distributed among the banks of the country to regulate supply and demand. It will also be needed to partially repay foreign loans. Then the dangerous volatility that can be reflected in the price volatility of the foreign exchange market will be eliminated.

Inflation forecast in Russia for 2017 - 2018 denoted by approximate figures of 4 - 5 percent. The President of the country said that the government will try to get closer to these very favorable and possible data in order to improve life and economic conditions in the country.

Hard times come sooner or later in every country. Rising prices, lower wages, higher unemployment rates, the closure of many social programs and other unpleasant moments have befallen ordinary Russians in recent years. But our compatriots do not lose heart - they continue to believe that the economic crisis will end, and Russia will once again take a leading position in the world community.

As it turned out, all these hopes are already starting to come true. The state is slowly but surely recovering, and inflation forecast for 2018 shows that the most difficult times will be left behind.

The government periodically provides the public with reports that track the stabilization in the foreign exchange market, as well as the revitalization of the banking sector. Many analysts are confident that the country will get out of the economic hole, and numerous reforms will be an additional incentive for this.

What should Russians prepare for in 2018?

Today, this issue is of great concern to all residents of Russia. Despite the fact that every time in the news some information about the economy of the state and about decisions to resume it slips through, our compatriots try to follow the news on the Internet, intending to see encouraging news.

This time, the Ministry of Economic Development has pleased the Russians with an optimistic forecast for 2018. The statements of experts from this department say that next year the inflation growth will noticeably decrease - up to 4%.

Of course, such a positive forecast caused a lot of controversy, because not all analysts agree with such calculations. This mistrust is quite justified, especially if you look at the trend of growth in the cost of food products and services - prices increased by 12%.

It is worth noting that the forecasts were based on the “baseline” inflation scenario for 2018, which was based on the average price of Urals oil and the average annual value of the US currency. The Ministry of Economic Development is confident that this scenario is likely to be realized in the future financial period. Although "optimistic" is not excluded from the types - oil prices will increase, and the national currency will strengthen.

One can only assume how fluctuations in the oil and foreign exchange markets will affect inflation indicators, so Russians are trying not to build castles in the air regarding the country's welfare for the next few years.

We all know the saying "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." It is by this principle that the majority of citizens live, because it is impossible to guarantee a quick disposal of, which has left an indelible mark on many areas of the life of our contemporaries.

In the process of calculating the expected inflation rate in 2018, the experts took into account the sanctions imposed on Russia. Probably, in the future, many of them will be canceled, which will improve the economy of the state as a whole, and within a short period of time.

The truth of the above forecast is added by the fact that the Central Bank is working hard and fruitfully in the direction of reducing inflationary growth. Alas, now it is still difficult to notice the fruits of this activity, because tangible results are expected only next year. Even the unemployment rate is starting to decline gradually. According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, its fall will end at 4.5%.

Inflation forecast for 2017-2020

Believe the official data or not?

We all would like to see a prosperous Russia again in the near future, so most citizens try not to lose heart and believe in better times. All forecasts made by leading experts in the field of economics cannot be considered final.

In addition, experts from the IMF spoil the whole rosy picture, who argue that in the period under review, the economic condition of our state will only worsen: prices will continue to rise, respectively, and the inflation rate will also increase.

Inflation rates: are they really that important?

Why are people interested in inflationary growth or decline indicators at all? You can understand economists: on the basis of these data, they make calculations regarding certain benefits, subsidies, etc. But even an ordinary Russian, thanks to information on inflation rates, will be able to understand how well and efficiently the country's economy is functioning.

A low percentage of inflation will contribute to the fact that the cost of oil will increase, respectively, the amount of taxes from its sale will increase, and this will have a positive effect on the federal budget of the country. The treasury will gradually begin to fill up, increase, and the well-being of citizens will improve.

If the optimistic forecasts for inflation in Russia for 2017-2018 come true, the oil price is expected to rise from $ 55 per barrel to $ 75 per barrel. On the positive side of this news, the tax on oil sales will allow us to finally pay off some of the external government debt, as well as increase the level of social subsidies and benefits for the population.

In the end, I would like to add that during the year such a phenomenon as “creeping” inflation is possible. A slight increase in inflation indicators has its advantages, and the main one is the stimulation of the banking sector. As you can see, in any situation you can find positive moments, the main thing is not to despair, but always hope for the best.

The last few years can hardly be called simple for the citizens of the Russian Federation: a constant rise in food prices, an increase in tariffs, and the cancellation of several social programs. But, the government convinces us that we should not despair, and the data confirms that today the most difficult times are behind us.

What inflation in 2018 will be, and what the official forecast is prepared by the Ministry of Finance, we will find out in the article.

What to expect for the country next year

Of course, all residents of the country are very worried about what to expect for Russia in 2018, how the economic situation will change, and will life really become easier? The Ministry of Economic Development really pleases with its forecasts. According to independent experts, the inflation index in 2018 will decrease significantly. It is expected to drop to 4%, which will significantly affect the federal budget for 2018.

Such a high estimated inflation rate in Russia has caused a lot of controversy, and not all experts agree with it, and in some respects they are right. After all, if you look at the cost of food products, then their predicted cost differs from the real one by 12%.

Planned inflation for 2018 is calculated based on a baseline that has been in effect for several years. It is based on the cost of oil and the value of the dollar. The given inflation rate for 2018 will be relevant in the Russian Federation only if nothing changes.

But, no one excludes a positive turn, in which the expected oil price will begin to increase, which means the country's welfare will improve, the national currency will strengthen its positions. Of course, well-known experts do not want to talk about such lofty goals, because it is almost impossible to plan such.

In addition, when calculating the inflation rate in Russia in 2018, the sanctions imposed against our country were taken into account. But, most likely, some of them will be removed, which will positively affect the official results.

Why it is important to know the inflation rate

Most of the country's citizens, although they are interested in the level of inflation in Russia, and the economy as a whole, do not fully understand what a big role it is assigned to:

• The level of social payments to the population depends on how much inflation in 2018 will be in percent. Based on the percentage of inflation, economists perform all the necessary calculations, which are then applied to the whole of Russia.
• Based on the inflation rate for 2018, you can tell how well the economy is doing.
• If inflation is low, then, over time, the price of oil will start to rise. At the same time, taxes from its sale go directly to the treasury, this money will cover the deficit, the inflation rate will significantly decrease.
• If inflation in Russia decreases, then the welfare of its citizens will begin to grow, therefore, life will be better.

According to Rosstat, the forecast price for a barrel of oil next year will reach $ 75, which would be an excellent option compared to the current price.

Such revenues to the budget will allow you to quickly reach the planned income level, and will make the life of ordinary citizens much easier.

What the government says

According to the president, the country is already emerging from the economic crisis it is facing. In order to maintain the financial situation of the country's residents, salary indexation was carried out whenever possible.

Today, according to the Ministry of Finance, next year the forecasted inflation rate will be at 4%, this is the expected and forecasted level of the coefficient. This means that the estimated amount of various social benefits will also increase by 4%. So far, the government cannot significantly raise the salaries of its citizens, but the real concern for everyone is visible.

But, according to the Ministry of Finance, there may be an increase in inflation in 2018, this phenomenon is called creeping. They bring their positives:

• Most citizens, by habit, keep the accumulated money at home, hiding it in a secluded place. During the growth of inflation, they begin to fear the depreciation of savings, and donate their capital to the bank. Thus, there is an active stimulation of the banking sector, and a large currency turnover.
• Residents who have a loan are trying not to wait until the planned payment arrives, but to close the debt as quickly as possible in order to take a new acquisition exactly at the moment when it became cheaper.

Through the efforts of the country's government, inflation in Russia amounted to 5.6% in 2017, and in the next will drop to 4%, which undoubtedly indicates a gradual stabilization of the economy in the country and an improvement in its welfare in general.

Based on such optimistic forecasts, we can confidently say that the crisis has subsided, and very soon, life will become much easier for all of us.

Back in the fall of 2016, representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade calculated what exactly the inflation forecast for 2018 should be. According to the statements of the deputy of the publicized department, Alexei Vedev, during the current and future period, the inflation threshold will not exceed 4%. To mitigate the situation, the Central Bank will maintain a moderate toughness of the current monetary policy. It turns out that an improvement in the state of the economy is expected soon, which means that all its spheres will soon show the long-awaited rise. But in order to understand whether Russia will have money inflation in 2018, one will have to consider the statements of experts and specialists.

Professionals' opinions

Before starting to talk about the possibility of manifestation of the noted process, you should give it a clear designation. So, inflation is the overflow of money circulation channels with an excess amount of money. A reflection of this process can be found in the prices of goods, which inevitably begin to rise. This process acquired its own name only in the 20th century, although the facts of price growth were observed earlier. The emergence of the term itself is tied to the reform of the monetary system and the forced transition to paper bills.

Modern inflation depends on a number of different factors:

Rapid growth in the production of a variety of goods with their own structural complexity;
social transfers;
the versatility of the pricing system;
changes in pricing due to the monopoly of individual enterprises;
reduced price competition.

Efficiency of production usually depends not on a simple decrease in prices, but in connection with an increase in the profitable mass and income of each participant in the production chain. The beginning of inflation can be called an increase in the price of products or services.

Forecasts of the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the rating agency

According to official information, the planned inflation rate for 2018 is 4.8%. In the near future, the inflation rate should decrease, as well as the savings rates of the Russian Federation. As a result, consumer demand will gradually recover, while the volatility of the national currency will return to the 2014 levels.

According to the officials of the listed departments, by the end of this year it will be possible to achieve an inflation rate of 8%, and it would be nice to fix this level in 2018. For employees of the Central Bank, such a guide is considered a priority.

The international rating agency Fitch Ratings decided to conduct a detailed analysis of the situation with the Russian economy. The final decision of the department's specialists reads as follows: inflation in 2018 in this territory will reach 5.5%. For ordinary citizens, this time will be even more sad, since for them the inflation threshold will last up to 6.5%.

In an average annual expression, the dollar exchange rate is as follows:

• 2017 - 65 rubles;
• 2018 - 60 rubles.

Despite the sad consequences, Russia's GDP should increase by 1-3% by the end of this year, while in 2018 its position will be able to strengthen thanks to another 2%. Therefore, there is hope to see increased consumer spending (literally by a few percent), in order to be higher by another 0.5% in the future.

Development of the situation with deflators in the eyes of the Ministry of Economic Development

Many residents of Russia cannot calm down in any way regarding the future of their native country. After all, the life of every person here depends on the further course of economic affairs. But the economic system of the Russian Federation is currently considered so unstable that it makes no sense to talk about any specific forecasts.

The deflators themselves, which will be discussed later, are nothing more than price trends. They are used by government experts to accurately calculate prices at a specific time for a particular region and each industrial sector. Therefore, the forecasts from the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade will indicate a completely different price index for the construction sector, agriculture or retail. According to the same department, by the end of 2018, the inflation rate should gradually fall. According to preliminary information, this process will be observed until 2030. Therefore, it remains to be patient quite a bit - literally in a few months life will become a little easier.

Forecasting price growth

A few weeks ago, Rosstat published information regarding price growth, which clearly shows the following patterns: in 2015, price indicators turned out to be too high (by 13%), while in 2016 their percentage dropped to a more acceptable 4-5%.

Against the background of previous years, serious jumps in price growth in different directions are also noticeable:

2008 - 13,3%;
2009 - 8,8%;
2010 - 8,8%;
2011 - 6,1%;
2012 - 6,6%;
2013 - 6,5%;
2014 - 11,4%.

The 2018 inflation forecast is based on the current period and the forecast for the next. As a result, the following picture emerges:

In 2017, the inflation rate is in the range from 2 to 6%; at the same time, its minimum value will turn out to be real closer to the end of the current period (not less than 3.9%);

In 2018, the inflation rate will be located opposite the 4.5% mark; its minimum value should not exceed 3.2%, while the maximum - 2.8%;

2019 will not move too far from the level of its predecessor, because the average inflation rate at this time will be 4.6%, with variability from 3.65 to 5.25%.

It remains only to summarize the announced information in the semblance of the final forecast. At the moment, most political and economic leaders insist that the situation in Russia will develop in a positive way in a few months. Stabilization is on the way, after which it will be time to stop the fall of the Russian currency with its further consolidation.

But if you look at the current state of the state's gold and foreign exchange reserves, optimism somehow disappears by itself. The sad trend with a reduction in the monetary reserve will continue further, therefore, it is necessary to revise foreign exchange transactions, as well as distribute the existing amount of funds to all banks in the Russian Federation. This is the only way to manage the current supply and demand. Of course, one should not forget about the need to repay foreign obligations in order to eliminate dangerous volatility.

It only remains to add that the forecast for inflation in Russia for the near future is kept at the level of 4-5%. According to President Putin, the Russian government will do everything possible to bring closer and fix the state of the economy in such, the most favorable conditions. Only then there is a hope of waiting for an improvement in life and the entire economic component of Russia.

Inflation in 2018 in Russia will slow down to 4%, which is in line with the government's baseline forecast. The slowdown in price growth will allow the Central Bank to continue lowering the rate, which will lead to a further reduction in the cost of credit resources. However, a new period of devaluation may become an additional driver of inflation next year.

The economic crisis has led to a rapid devaluation of the ruble and a corresponding rise in prices. Inflation on an annualized basis reached 13%, which led to a significant decrease in the level of welfare of citizens. As a result, the Central Bank was forced to increase the key rate, increasing the cost of ruble liquidity. Recovery of the domestic economy after the crisis allows the regulator to move to a gradual rate cut.

In June 2017, the Central Bank cut the rate to 9% in response to a slowdown in inflation. At the end of the year, the growth in prices will slow down to 4%, which is in line with the target level, the representatives of the regulator emphasize. This trend will remain relevant in 2018, since fundamental factors contribute to the stabilization of the domestic economy.

Despite the cold season (spring-summer 2017), which led to an increase in prices for fruits and vegetables, the Central Bank is confident that prices will stabilize in the medium term. Experts note the factors, the influence of which may lead to a new acceleration of inflation. The dynamics of the oil market, the pace of economic recovery and trends in the foreign exchange market will determine whether inflation in 2018 will be in line with the forecast of the Central Bank.

Drivers of inflation in 2018

The optimistic forecasts of the Central Bank are based on the expected stabilization of oil prices and the recovery of economic growth. Next year, GDP growth will reach 1.5%, according to representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development. Under a more favorable scenario in the commodity markets, the growth of the domestic economy will accelerate to 1.7-2%.

The key factor for the resumption of economic growth is the stability of oil prices. The cost of a barrel of "black gold" should not fall below $ 50, experts say. The agreed measures of the OPEC representatives will ensure a moderate increase in oil prices.

However, the oil market remains unbalanced, which could lead to new shocks next year. Experts do not exclude a decrease in prices to $ 25-30 per barrel if suppliers fail to fulfill their obligations to cut oil production. In addition, countries that are not limited by quotas will be able to take advantage of market conditions and increase their own oil supplies.

The fall in oil prices will have a negative impact on the development of the domestic economy. As a result, the projected 1.5% GDP growth next year is under threat. Also, the government will be forced to weaken the position of the domestic currency, responding to a decrease in budget revenues.

Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank, notes the impact of fluctuations in currency quotes on the inflation index. In 2018, the base forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development allows for the weakening of the Russian currency to 70 rubles / dollar, which will lead to an acceleration of inflation. The rise in the dollar exchange rate will affect the rise in prices for imported goods, which occupy a significant share in the consumer basket. As a result, it will be difficult for the central bank to reach the inflation target.

A slowdown in inflation will lead to an increase in real incomes of citizens. In addition, the Central Bank will be able to lower the rate level, providing the economy with cheap loans.

Useful inflation

The acceleration of inflation during the crisis had a negative impact on the level of citizens' well-being. The rise in prices began to "eat up" the real income of the population, which led to a decrease in consumption. As a result, the economy has lost one of the growth factors.

In addition, the rise in inflation and the Central Bank's response has led to a sharp increase in the cost of borrowed resources. The curtailment of lending has led to stagnation in various sectors of the economy. Next year, experts predict another decline in interest rates on loans. Including rates on mortgage loans may fall below 10%, which will lead to a revival in the real estate market.

A decrease in the inflation index to 4% will lead to a reduction in budget expenditures. As a result, the government will be able to reduce the cost of annual indexation of payments (including the increase in pensions), which will reduce the deficit of the state treasury. In this case, the authorities will be able to redirect part of the resources to the development of infrastructure projects, which will give an additional impetus to the Russian economy.

Next year, inflation will consolidate at 4%, which is in line with the forecasts of the government and the Central Bank. The domestic economy continues to recover from the crisis, which leads to a slowdown in price growth.

Experts point out the factors that may hinder the implementation of this scenario. First of all, this is a drop in oil prices and a subsequent slowdown in the economy. In addition, the weakening of the ruble will have a negative impact on inflation indicators.

A slowdown in inflation will lead to an increase in real incomes of citizens, a decrease in budget expenditures and a reduction in the cost of loans.

Watch a video on what inflation is and what types exist: