As far as the euro rose. Before and after. What a mansion has turned over one and a half million euros after the lottery winners bought it. Refusal to Euro

Many do not cease to wonder what will happen from the euro in the near future. The unstable economic situation in the world causes people to look for ways to preserve their savings, and converting into foreign currency is considered as one of the possible directions. We focus on the fact that today the experts are in no hurry to give forecasts, since most of them were wrong in the last six months.

Strengthening the dollar against the euro

In March 2015, most analysts talked about strengthening the dollar against the euro. There were forecasts that by 2017 the American currency is fully equal to European. Despite the rollback that could be observed all April, the situation has not yet stabilized. It was finally changed to say that the negative dynamics of the euro finally changed.

The beginning of May was marked for the European currency auction at the level of 1.1. World agencies such as Goldman Sachs, Barclays and BNP Paribas, stated that the "European" will reach this price tag only by the end of 2015. The more optimistic forecast was given by representatives of WELLS Fargo, focusing at the level of 1.22. You can talk about the dual version of the development of events. Two directions are considered: a drop to a level of a 2-hundred minimum and growth to the indicator in 1.22.

European economy

In the first half of 2015, experts expect GDP growth at 1-2%. For Europe, this indicator can be considered more than positive. Customize the world's expected macroeconomic indicators on a positive forecast. This unemployment rate is within 9.5%, which is relatively recently evaluated only by double digits, as well as inflation at 1%.

The fall in the European currency regarding the dollar specialists associate with the more active development of America's economy over the past two years. Despite the expected euro growth in the next couple of years, today the course is constrained by a variety of factors. It can be said about the reduction of industrial production in Germany and in many other major countries. The problem is hidden in the uneven development of EU countries. The northern regions today are only restored after a long stagnation.

EURO fall as the result of the performance of Mario Dragi

Mario Dragi in his last spring speeches has repeatedly talked about what he intends to take all measures to reduce public debts. This can not not affect the euro. Representatives of the agency suggest that the negative trend will also be supported by the relative openness of the European trading area, as well as the presence of deflation pressure. A portfolio investment outflow is fixed, where exactly the euro plays the role of the financing currency.

EU communications with Russia

It is worth noting the fact that the EU has a certain dependence on gas, which is imported from Russia, as well as from importing its goods to the territory of the Russian Federation. Volumes and gas, and imports are declining today in connection with the sanctions that impose a negative imprint on the EU states. Despite the present trend, the euro rate, according to the forecasts of world analysts, will not grow long. Investors no longer hope to strengthen the European currency. As experts say: "The era of the dollar is in full swing." The only thing that remains to be hoped is restricting actions by the Government of America, which will keep the national currency rate at a certain level.

Considering the question of what will happen from the euro in the near future, many experts are trying to impose a situation with Greece on the course process. Analysts of the World Agency STRATFOR consider only two options for the further development of events:

• Greece may leave and Germany will introduce a German brand. This is one of the most negative forecasts for the EU, which will send a pair of "Euro / Dollar" to the long southern swimming. There is a risk of complete wasting of the European currency.
• The second option is the continuation of the partnership and with Greece, and with Germany. Financial support, which will be provided to states, does not destabilize the EU global economy, and only slow down the rapid rates of its growth, which will not be a catastrophic phenomenon.

"One dollar is one euro" as one of the alternative scenarios of events

Considering the question of what will happen from the euro in the next few years, analysts of the Goldman agency voiced the currency rate at $ 0.9 dollars \u003d already by 2017. Specialists do not cease to talk about the threat of deflation and practically zero, and in places and negative growth of the economy. Already from the beginning of 2015, the European national currency fell by 2.6% in relation to currencies of 9 countries of the world. Before parity with the dollar, it remained relatively long, just about 15%.

It is worth recalling that the euro rate has already descended for one level with American currency in 2012. At the end of 2014, the euro lost almost 12% of its cost. According to Chris iggo, the head of the fixed profitability of AXA Investment Management, parity will be able to achieve if the ECB monetary policies and the Fed will remain the same. We mention that in the fall of 2014 the ECB lowered the bet on deposits by 0.2%. Echoes of the Drague report on the purchase of sovereign bonds of the European countries and the next stage of the policy of quantitative mitigation is noticeable today in the fall of the euro / dollar pair.

Temporary recovery

Today's rollback of the euro rate in the northern direction is a direct consequence of actions that the ECB undertakes at the end of 2014. It is about reducing interest rates from 0.15% to 0.05% and reduce the deposit rates, which was previously stated. These record low indicators for the European zone stimulated active lending by the banks of the real, not financial sector of the economy. Only six months later, after the adoption of the fundamental measures of the ECB, the European economy became gradually to recover. Recall that no one guessed about the decline of the bet. Such a scenario was presented only to six economists from the respondents to fifty seven.

Euro and Russian national currency

Despite the fact that the euro forecast for the dollar remains negative, the ratio of the ruble / euro will be completely opposite. European currency in relation to the ruble in the near future will continue its growth. The weak economy of Europe against the background of Russia is in a very advantageous position. The situation is due to the events occurring in the global oil market. In parallel with the fall of the cost of oil, the euro rate will grow. Despite today's rise in price of oil, experts still wait to descend the prices of black gold before the January minimum, so you can count on the second leap of the growth of the euro in Russia. Do not forget that the forecast remains a forecast, and the likely that the ruble will begin to strengthen its positions.

What will happen to the euro price, according to the best world analysts?

The opinions of experts regarding the euro differ and differ in their optimity. Deutsche Bank believes in a fall below parity and stops at the course of $ 0.95 per euro by the end of 2017. The author of the forecast of Georges Saravelos is repelled from the fact that in 2000 the euro / dollar pair was trading at 0.8300. Due to the wave structure of the fluctuations of the course with a frequency of seven-nine years, Deutsche Bank experts do not see anything catastrophic in a situation.

The British Bank HSBC gives a slightly different euro course forecast. Experts of the Financial Institute are confident that by the end of 2015, the euro in a pair with the dollar will bargain at the level of 1.19. Barclays representatives prefer the level of 1.1, which can be seen today, but the Morgan Stanley experts are leaning towards the 1.14 indicator.

At the moment, it is problematic to say how euro behaves in the future. The price today is not stabilized, in fact, as the EU economy itself after the crisis not only the end of 2014, but also 2008-2009. A difficult actual situation does not interfere with believing many analysts in a very promising future of the European monetary unit. It remains only to observe what will happen from the euro on.

Photo: Artem Geodakian / Tass

Pure capital outflow from the eurozone reached the maximum during the existence of a single European currency. This trend will lead to a minimum of euro and dollar courses parity next year, and with a negative scenario - the drop in the euro below the dollar, analysts consider.

Clean outflow of capital from the eurozone for the 12 months ended in September 2016, reached record values, told The Wall Street Journal with reference to the ECB data.

For the reporting period, European investors bought shares and bonds outside the zone by € 497.5 billion ($ 516.5 billion). At the same time, international investors were sold during the year or waited for the repayment of bonds of issuers from the eurozone by $ 31.3 billion. Thus, the net outflow of capital from the eurozone amounted to € 528.8 billion, which was the maximum since the introduction of the euro in 1999.

Against this background, the euro continues to fall in relation to the dollar. A number of analysts surveyed by the publication believed that in 2017 the euro will reach parity with the dollar. In particular, analyst TD Securities Ned Rampeltin expects a decline in the euro course below the dollar in the first months of next year. Analysts Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs expect a parity of currency courses until the end of 2017. In Deutsche Bank, predict that the euro will fall in 2017 at least $ 0.95 against the background of increasing capital outflow from Europe.

On December 14, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the base rate to 0.5-0.75% for the first time since December 2015. It is expected that the rate of increasing the base rate will be accelerated in the future, while the ECB rate is still zero.

In December, before the Fed meeting, according to CONSENSUS ECONOMICS, analysts predicted that the euro will reach $ 1,057 by the end of 2017. But the dollar rate rose 2.5% against the euro after the Fed launched his plans to raise a bet in 2017 three times, and not twice, as the Fed declared in October.

"The last time this was observed for several months in 1979 and 1997, when the dollar rose by 30 and 20%, respectively," said George Saravelos strategist Deutsche Bank. The dollar rally may have serious consequences, accelerating inflation in other countries and reducing US exports.

Refusal to Euro

The head of the investment company BurnBrae Group Jim Melon, the state of which in 2014 was assessed by more than $ 1 billion, previously informed Bloomberg, which enhancing discontent among the residents of the European Union by the Governments of the EU governments will lead to the collapse of the block over the next five years.

According to Mellon forecasts, the euro rate drops below the parity "somewhere next year", but it is not in a hurry to sell European currency, as it hopes to make money on short-term fluctuations.

"Brexit will become a secondary event against the background of problems that are brewing in Europe. Euro at the moment is an extremely uncomfortable tool. I think he will live from one to five years, "Mellon said.

The main event of this week - the US Federal Reserve meeting - remained behind, and now the markets will be focused on the end of the next week on one topic - the British referendum regarding the country's membership in the EU scheduled for June 23 (Thursday).

The dominance of this topic in the information space will be facilitated by the fact that the economic calendar is up to the referendum is extremely zudd.

In the face of uncertainty about the results of the British referendum and its consequences, the demand for asylum assets is growing - government bonds, gold, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, US dollar.

Risky assets, on the contrary, were under pressure - so, oil quotes are already tested by the level of $ 48 per barrel brand Brent. For the ruble, this is definitely a negative, and if the oil does not be able to resist above $ 48, on Friday a pair of dollar / ruble will go to the range of 66.00 - 66.50 rubles. At the same time, an important driver of oil futures on Friday evening will be a weekly report of the Baker Hughes oilfield company regarding the number of operating oil drilling rigs in the United States.

As for the euro, the United European currency is one of the main victims of fears related to the upcoming referendum, and therefore tomorrow I expect its closure in the range of 73 - 73.50 rubles.

From the reports of the next week, only reports relating to the US oil industry are also deserved, the report of the US Department of Energy for Commercial Reserves and Oil Production (coming out weekly on Wednesdays) and the Baker Hughes report on the number of existing drilling rigs (comes out weekly on Fridays).

At the same time, for everyone it is obvious that the outcome of trading in the foreign exchange market will determine the British plebiscite next week. At the same time, not only its results remain in question, but also the possible response to them of financial markets, the scale of which is extremely difficult to predict due to the fact that many players will make decisions under the influence of emotions or speculative considerations.

Today we can only assume that the victory of EU supporters will respond to euros purchases and a surge demand for risky assets, including oil. In this case, the dollar may moderately decrease against the ruble (for 30-50 kopecks), and the euro, on the contrary, to demonstrate a noticeable strengthening, rising to 75 rubles.

In case of victory of Euroschaptics, the reaction will be the opposite, and the initial movements in the foreign exchange market can be very strong. It is impossible to exclude a sharp drop in the euro to 72.50 rubles. The dollar, on the contrary, is able to grow at a mark of 67 rubles against the background of the fall of oil quotes, which can reach $ 47 per barrel.

To begin with, it is worth noting that the euro is a foreign currency that ranks second in the ranking of monetary units for which there are difficult times today. The reasons for the course of the euro course currently there are many, the situation in general was influenced and Greece, which was mired in debt, as in silks, and refuses to repay the debt to direct debtors. Give accurate forecasts, what will be the euro rate to the ruble at the end of 2019, it is difficult, but international professionals still predict the period when the euro falls even more. This will be told in this article.

What can affect the euro rate in 2019

The euro in relation to the Russian ruble depends, above all, on the following factors:

1. Interest rates appointed by the European Central Bank. So, at this time it is reduced to the minimum threshold. In this regard, experts are implemented by additional programs that stimulate QE.
2. The amount of public debt in the European Union. In addition to Greece, the loans were provided to Spain and Portugal. A decrease in the profitability of securities directly proportionally affects the course of foreign currency.
3. In the event that the prices of Russian oil fall sharply, foreign currency will also suddenly rise. This is quite possible in the absence of free capacities in American petrokemale and at regular supplies of black gold from Iran. The oil market does not shine stability, so at any moment the situation may change towards the reduction of the ruble value. For the domestic economy, such oscillations do not mean anything good.
4. Incessant crisis in Ukraine. The war exacerbates further, and the peace negotiations are more like a farce that does not give any results. The neighboring state is trying to influence the Russian Federation with sanctions from the European Union. One way or another, new restrictions force Russian citizens all the tightening belt tighten.
5. Economic instability. A foreign investor leaves the territory of Russia and translates its assets to another territory. More than hundreds of financial and credit institutions can become bankruptcies due to their own insolvency.

What to expect in the fall of 2018

If in the fall of 2015 the euro was 70.38 rubles, then in the second half of January it is expected that the euro will reach the mark of 74.35 monetary sign in national currency.

The highest rates of rubles accounted for April - May 2015, when the euro dropped to a value of 52.9 rubles. In June, a foreign currency has been calculated in 61.95 rubles, at the end of July this figure has changed to 67 rubles. As of August 14, 2015, the euro remained at 65 rubles.

British young couple won 50 million euros in the lottery and bought a chic house for one and a half million. Five years later, he became a refuge for rats and paradise for drug addicts, and the neighbors who did not even see new owners, gather to sue them.

Mattu and Cassie Topem for 28 years. Not so long ago, they worked as a painter and saleswoman in the small town of Steiplford, the county of Nottinghamshire, England. In 2012, their lives changed: they won the Euromillions Lottery 45 million pounds (about 50 million euros). Couple decided to buy a house.

The choice fell on the huge mansion of the 1930s built in the same Nottinghamshire. In the house seven bedrooms, several bathrooms, there is a garden and a huge lawn. It costs this pleasure of 1.2 million pounds (just over 1.3 million euros). This is how the house looked in 2012:

But what he represents five years later:

Topem's neighbors practically did not see them in the territory and complain to journalists on the fact that the once adorable place turned into a garbage and a shelter for drug addicts. Rats began on the territory. Adam Hill, neighbor, told The Sun, in which the once beautiful and well-groomed house turned.

Topems Mount Money, and it would be good for them to spend a little to stop this farce - or at least for safety. In the local group in Snapchat, the house is called "the worst place in Nottingham for Selfie." And so the youth is constantly climbing there. Toilets are broken, rats climbed through the pipes and arranged home there. In the yard - an empty pool, it is also dangerous, someone may seriously suffer.

Two or three times a year, neighbors cause police, but no sense. In the house find syringes. Young people and teenagers who climb there, completely destroyed the interior. Around the site is a four-meter fence, but it does not interfere with anyone from climbing inside through holes.

Cassie and Matt, as the press wrote, eventually decided to demolish the historic building and build a new house there. But so far there is no speech about it.

It's just a jungle. Topami really tried to be unloved them.

TopEm mansion used to be known as a rainbow home. The site in the back is closely adjacent to the house of Bruce Wayne from the movie "Dark Knight: Revival Legends." So the place is not simple. Nevertheless, the new owners were going to fully reconstruct and build an extract for 5 million pounds, which would see the dwelling of telepusiks.