Unemployment statistics in Russia. Unemployment rate Forecast unemployment rate

Unemployment is a widespread phenomenon. There is not a single place in the world where this phenomenon does not occur.

It affects all spheres of human life, provoking changes in production.

The calculation of the unemployment rate is carried out by analyzing the ratio of the number of citizens who are not able to get a job, while being able to work, to the number of employed persons. Within the Russian Federation, the number of unemployed, since 2014, has been steadily growing.

Fundamentals of unemployment - concept, analysis, accounting

The economic development of the country, in part, is expressed in the unemployment rate. It is a socio-economic phenomenon in which the active part of the population cannot find a job, is recognized as if "superfluous", among the main labor mass.

The International Labor Organization has defined the unemployed. Thus, a person who does not have a permanent job is recognized as unemployed, is in search of work and can readily start it. It is very important that this person was officially registered in the unemployment fund.

It is noteworthy that the number of unemployed in each of the periods varies depending on the change in the cycle and the pace economic growth, on how much the labor productivity indicator has increased or decreased, as well as on the level of the professionally-skilled structure and the demand for labor.

Evaluation of indicators, which exert an influencing pressure on the unemployment rate, is produced by:

1. Calculation of the coefficient of employment of the population.
2. Definitions of the unemployment rate.
3. Conclusion of the percentage of natural unemployment.

The first coefficient determines the specific number of the adult population that is directly employed in the production process on a national scale. The second indicator is the number of unemployed as a percentage of the number of workers. The last indicator is the percentage ratio between the unemployed and the workers at the moment of economic prosperity.

It is important to understand that the rate of unemployment or its rate, may change constantly due to the influence of production. Depending on the cycle, namely, the growth or recession of the economy and the volatility of production, technical progress, depending on the qualifications of employees, the professionalism of hired personnel. If the trend of the unemployment rate falls down, then there is an expansion and rise in production, otherwise, there is an increase in the indicator. Moreover, the dynamics of GNP and unemployment are inextricably linked.

Unemployment can considered in these aspects:

1. Forced.
2. Registered.
3. marginal.
4. Unstable.
5. Technological.
6. Structural.

At forced or voluntary unemployment, as a rule, the worker himself seeks to work with certain level wages and certain conditions, but can not get a job. Or the employee does not want to work on conditions of low wages (voluntary unemployment). The second option tends to increase during an economic boom, or vice versa - it decreases during its recession. The scale and duration of this type of unemployment depend on the professionalism and qualifications of workers, on the socio-demographic group of the population.

At registered unemployment part of the unemployed population is looking for work and is registered with the employment fund.

marginal unemployment characterized by the lack of work among the weakly protected segment of the population and in the social lower classes.

At unstable varieties of unemployment, the decisive factor will be a temporary problem associated with stopping the growth of production.

Hidden the type of unemployment is not officially recognized unemployment, but seasonal, one that occurs only in certain sectors of the economy, as workers are needed in such production.

There is also technological unemployment, which is caused by the adjustment of the production process through the use of the mechanism. With this type of unemployment, as a rule, productivity increases there, but less costs are required to improve the skills of employees.

There is a type of unemployment institutional . This type can be characterized as a combination of trade union or state intervention in the establishment of wages, which should be formed on the basis of market demand.

Unemployment may occur Consequently:

1. Apply measures to improve the economic structure. This implies the manifestation and implementation of equipment that entails job cuts. That is, "machine" production displaces human labor.
2. Fluctuations for a certain season. This means that the level of a certain production has a place to increase or decrease, depending on the season, in each individual industry.
3. The cyclical nature of the economy. At economic downturn go crisis need to use human resource may go down.
4. Changes in the demographic picture. The growth of the working population in this case leads to the fact that with an increase it entails a proportional decrease in the need for labor.
5. Political influence on the sphere of wages.

The emergence of such a socio-economic condition as unemployment inevitably entails such consequences:

1. Economic changes.
2. Non-economic changes.

The first case entails:

• reduction in funding revenue federal budget, by minimizing tax receipts - ;
• costs are rising as a public burden on funding and disbursements, . Retraining of workers, etc.;
• the standard of living goes down. In particular, people who have lost their jobs lose their wealth, respectively, their quality of life becomes lower;
• output is reduced due to the fact that there is a backlog of actual GDP from potential.

Non-economic changes mean an increase in the criminal situation in the country, an increase in stress in society, as well as provoking social and political unrest.

, according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization, the unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed by the number of the active population.

Official statistics

Statistical observation is based on a thorough analysis of the dynamics of the indicator over the years and months. Statistical observation has confirmed official data. The basis of these data is the published information of Rosgosstat.

As of January 2019, the number of unemployed in the country amounted to about 800 thousand people. At the same time, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation predicts that the number of officially unemployed in 2019 will grow by almost 40% and reach 1.1 million Russians.

If we consider the situation in individual regions, it should be noted that in Moscow lowest unemployment rate- 1.3%, relative to Ingushetia, in which the figure was 26.2%.

Estimated unemployment rate on years allows us to say that since 2011 the indicator has become lower. So, at the beginning of 2011, this level was fixed at a value of 7.8%. In 2014 and 2015, the unemployment rate tended to rise due to massive layoffs.

Beginning with recent months 2013, in the first half of 2014, the unemployment rate stubbornly held on to one place, then a gradual decrease in the unemployment rate began until mid-summer 2014. By the end of 2014, the unemployment rate began to reach 5.3%, by 2015 this level was fixed at 5.8%.

On average, the unemployment rate in Russia has been gradually decreasing since 2011. So at the beginning of 2000, the indicator was 10.6%, then by 2001 it dropped to 9%, the following years it had the following expression - 2002 - 7.9%, 2003 - 8.2%, 2004 - 7.8%, 2005 - 7.1%, 2006 - 7.1%, from 2007 to 2008 the unemployment rate fell to 6%, in 2009-2010 - the level was 8.2%, and since 2011 the level has gradually decreased.

Statistics for this indicator are presented in the following video:

Hidden unemployment and its level

With the development of an economic phenomenon that involves the preservation of the workplace for a specific person, while maintaining formal relationships with the employer, but not giving him the opportunity to actually be employed in production, there appears hidden unemployment. As a rule, it occurs in times of crisis, when the actual labor force is not a necessity.

As a rule, the hidden unemployment rate does not exceed the range of 7 to 10 million people. This indicator tends to steadily increase.

Social protection of unemployed citizens and promising areas of work

Citizens who have actually experienced such an economic phenomenon can take advantage of receiving assistance from the state emergency service, have the right to take part in certain types of work, receive financial assistance in the form of unemployment benefits, etc.

During the crisis, during the growing number of unemployed, IT programming employees are valued more than ever. It is important to note that this particular field of activity is in demand at all times, since the development of technical progress and the design of various systems are valuable not only in the vastness of the country, but throughout the world.

Developers based on Android and iOS are no less popular. Following them in popularity are specialists in the field of transport logistics, car service, middle managers in sales, cashiers and workers. Among the latter are loaders, nurses, turners and farmers, postmen. Among the professions that are becoming unclaimed, as a rule, accountants, cooks, drivers and property managers are singled out.

Reasons and prospects

Theories of the development of unemployment There are many, but they can be summarized in three main ones:

Regardless of the reason for the appearance, the very essence of unemployment is a disaster, since the country, in macroeconomic terms, bears a huge burden, both economic and social. In addition to the fact that the instability of the population of the psychological and social aspects is developing, there are problems of a political nature. Because the people want constructive solutions and action by the government. Moreover, without having a permanent and stable source of income, a person resorts to breaking the law. This means that social tension is increasing, the crime situation is increasing, and so on. The country receives less GDP production.

FROM unemployment can only be fought in a complex by taking a variety of measures. In particular:

1. Creation of institutions that will provide assistance in retraining and retraining, improvement of existing ones.
2. Establishing the process of providing information to the public about vacancies.
3. Implementation of a policy to prevent the development of unemployment.

The rules for calculating the unemployment rate are set out in the following video:

Experts note that in the Russian Federation it was not always high percent unemployed. The highest unemployment rate was in the 1990s. This is primarily due to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

According to unemployment statistics in Russia, in 1992 there were 3.9% of the unemployed in the Russian Federation of the total number able-bodied population. But after 6 years, this figure increased to 8.9%. The main reason for unemployment at that time was the restructuring and closure of many state institutions and factories.

1999 became one of the crisis years for Russia. During this period, the unemployment rate for women reached 46.1% and 53.9% for men. The main reason for this situation lay in the public debt RF and the low cost of raw materials that were imported abroad.

From 1992 to 1999 the number of unemployed increased by almost 2.4 times.

Since 2000 the employment situation has improved slightly. The country was gradually recovering after the collapse of the USSR, implementing large projects that began to provide jobs for Russians. In 2000, there were about 20 regions with an unemployment rate below 15%.

The unemployment rate in the Russian Federation in 2018 is 4.9%

The fight against unemployment

The peak of the fight against unemployment in Russia falls on 2009. During this period, the government organized public works for unemployed citizens, and employment services began to issue loans to start a business. Also in 2009, the organization of courses for the retraining of employees was introduced.

Unemployment in different countries peace

Table: unemployment rate in Russia and other states

Causes of unemployment

Experts identify several reasons for unemployment in Russia:

• The first reason is technological progress. Today, many processes at enterprises and factories are performed by modern equipment. If we compare the technological level today and 20-30 years ago, we can conclude that the use of new technologies significantly reduces the need for labor.
• Economic factor. During the economic crisis, workers are laid off due to the unwillingness or inability to pay their labor on the part of management, so mass layoffs occur labor resources.
• The growth of the working-age population.
• Low pay.

Varieties of unemployment

Types of unemployment:

1. Friction. This type of unemployment is characterized by the time spent looking for a new job.
2. Structural. This form of unemployment is characterized by technological changes in production. In other words, a person, having retired from another industry, cannot find a job in another area.
3. Cyclical - arises as a result of the economic crisis.
4. Seasonal is due to the fact that many enterprises, in the absence of a need for labor, simply dismiss employees, and do not send them on vacation or reduce wages.

Separately from all forms, there is hidden unemployment in Russia. This type of unemployment occurs when a person is not officially employed, but at the same time maintains an employment relationship with employers and regularly receives a salary for his work.

Video: unemployment in Russia

Find out from the video:

• how many unemployed in Russia;
• what is hidden unemployment;
• mechanisms to combat unemployment.

Unemployment benefit amount

Unemployment benefits in Russia are paid to those residents of the Russian Federation who are registered with the employment service.

The amount of unemployment benefits in 2020 is calculated based on past wages. Maximum size allowances - 4,900 rubles.

If a person is registered for the first 3 months, then he receives a payment of 75% of. If he is registered for 7 months, then the allowance will be 60%. If a person remains unemployed for a year, then in this case the amount of the benefit will not exceed 45% of his last average salary.

Analysis of unemployment in 2019

According to statistics in April 2019, the working-age population Russian Federation amounted to 76,000,000 people, 72,300,000 of which are economically employed, that is. The rest of the population are unemployed.

In 2020, Rosstat predicts a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.7%.

Unemployment rate in different districts of the Russian Federation

Table: employment in Russia by districts in 2019

Table: employment in Russia in 2019 by region

Based on data from sociologists and statistics.

Sergey Antonov

loves statistics

In this article, we will tell you what the average unemployed person looks like, based on Rosstat information.

Who is considered unemployed

Statisticians refer to the unemployed people of working age who simultaneously satisfy three criteria:

1. They have no income-generating occupation.
2. Tried to get a job within the last four weeks.
3. Ready to start work next week.

Students, pensioners and the disabled are also considered unemployed if they meet these criteria.

3.97 million

of the unemployed was officially registered by Rosstat in 2017

According to Rosstat, there are almost 4 million unemployed in Russia. For comparison, employed - 72.1 million people. That is 18 times more. But this is official data.

There is also the so-called hidden unemployment: we are talking about people who do not seek to find a job. This also includes those who are fictitiously employed: the labor is in the organization, but the person does not go to work. In 2017, Oleg Shein, a member of the State Duma Committee on Labour, Social Policy and Veterans Affairs, said in an interview that there were about 28 million hidden unemployed in Russia. In this article, we analyze the official data of Rosstat and do not take into account hidden unemployment.

Gender, age and marital status

The average unemployed person is a single man. Statisticians counted 2.1 million men who have problems with employment and 1.9 million women. This gender disparity has persisted for the last ten years.

The average age of the Russian unemployed is 36 years. True, most often, citizens aged 20-24 experience problems with employment - this age group accounts for 18% of all unemployed, counted by statistics. In second place are people aged 25 to 29 - 16%, in third - from 30 to 34 - 13.5%. Apparently, the older a person is, the easier it is for him to find a job.

Education and work experience

More than a quarter of the unemployed in Russia completed only 11 classes. The average Russian unemployed person has no vocational education. True, even a university does not guarantee that a person will find a job: there are almost 820 thousand unemployed Russians with a diploma of higher education - this is a fifth of all unemployed.

Despite the lack of education, our average unemployed already has work experience. Moreover, he ended up without a stable source of income of his own free will - more than a year ago he wrote a statement of his own free will. The last place of work - in the service and trade. Apparently, he was simply tired of being a seller.

Where does he look for work and when will he find it?

The most popular way to find a new place is to ask friends, relatives or acquaintances. At the same time, our average unemployed person solves his problem via the Internet: he leaves his resume on job sites and looks through vacancies.

But he does not trust employment services: for some reason, this method of finding a job is not very popular among Russians - only every fourth unemployed person turns to the state for help. Word of mouth and communications are more reliable. Moreover, the average unemployed will find a new job. True, not quickly: according to statistics, this usually happens only after 8 months.

To the unemployed, in relation to the standards of the International Labor Organization (ILO), include persons of the age established for measuring economic activity population who, during the period under review, simultaneously met the following criteria:

• did not have a job (profitable occupation);
• engaged in job search, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment service, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly applied to the administration of the organization (employer), used personal connections etc. or took steps to start their own business;
• were ready to start work during the survey week.

Schoolchildren, students, pensioners and the disabled are counted as unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start it.

The unemployed registered with state institutions of the employment service include able-bodied citizens who do not have a job and earnings (labor income), living in the territory of the Russian Federation, registered with the employment service at their place of residence in order to find a suitable job, looking for a job and ready to start her.

Unemployment rate— the ratio of the number of unemployed in a certain age group to the number of the corresponding age group, %.

Unemployment rate formula

Unemployment rate is the share of the unemployed in the total.

It is measured as a percentage and is calculated using the formula:

Unemployment statistics in Russia by years

The unemployment rate (the ratio of the total number of unemployed to the economically active population, %) is shown in fig. one.

Rice. 1. Dynamics of unemployment in Russia from 1992 to 2008

The minimum unemployment rate for the analyzed period was in 1992 - 5.2%. The unemployment rate reached its maximum value in 1998 - 13.2%. By 2007, the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, and in 2008 the unemployment rate increased to 6.3%. It should be noted that the problem of unemployment is most acute not in general major regions, and at the local level: in small and medium-sized cities with a concentration of military and light industry, on unfinished construction sites large enterprises, in the mining settlements of the Far North, "closed" zones, etc.

Statistics and structure of unemployment in Russia

In a sociological study of unemployment, it is necessary to take into account its structure, in which they distinguish (Fig. 2):

• open unemployment - it is formed by status unemployed registered at labor exchanges, in employment centers at the place of residence. In 2009, their number was 2,147,300;
• hidden unemployment, which covers non-status unemployed, i.e. persons who do not have a job or are looking for it, but are not registered on the stock exchanges and employment centers. Their number in 2009 was 1,638,900 people.

The form of unemployment determines economic behavior the individual and his, the level of individual and social mobility for, employment and professions.

Rice. 2. Structure of unemployment

Rate and extent of unemployment

In 1999 (i.e., after the 1998 crisis), the total number of unemployed reached its maximum for the entire period of economic reforms and amounted to 9.1 million (Table 1). In the second quarter of 1999, the negative trend towards an increase in the total number of unemployed in Russia was overcome. By 2008, it had dropped to 4.6 million people; At the same time, there were approximately 1.6 million officially registered unemployed.

The threat of job loss, unemployment in society since 1992 is the most stable among other types of threats to the security of the individual in Russia.

According to sociological research by VTsIOM, the threat of rising unemployment in Russian society was noted by: 24% of the population in 1996 (February), 27% in 2000 (November), 28% in 2003 (October), 14% in 2007.

One of features of unemployment in Russia- its gender structure. The proportion of women among the registered unemployed in 2006 was 65%, and in a number of northern regions - 70-80%.

The financial and economic crisis has led to increased tender competition in the labor market and increased discrimination against women in the registered market.

Table 1. Dynamics of changes in the structure of the Russian unemployed in 1992-2009

Regarding unemployment in Russia, we can say the following:

• unemployment remains high;
• in the socio-professional structure of the unemployed, the share of students, pupils and pensioners has significantly decreased since 1992, but in 2009 there has been an upward trend;
• the number of unemployed in rural areas increased sharply: from 16.8% in 1992 to 32.4% in 2009;
• female unemployment has changed its vector.

Among the status unemployed, the majority are women, among the non-status - men.

Unemployment is acquiring a gender-symmetrical age. Thus, among men, the average age of the unemployed is 34.2 years, among women - 34.1 years. In general, the average age of the unemployed in Russian society is slowly decreasing: from 34.7 years in 2001 to 34.1 years in 2006.

The structure of Russian unemployment has also changed in terms of educational level, but the unemployed remain the most educated among the unemployed capitalist countries (Table 2). The educational asymmetry in the gender structure of the unemployed indicates that women predominate among the Russian unemployed with a high educational status, while men are the main low-skilled part of the unemployed population.

Table 2. Gender and educational structure of the Russian unemployed in 2009, %

Features of the marital status of the Russian unemployed are visible from Table. 3. Most of the registered (status) unemployed are married women. There are 1.5 times more widowed and divorced among unemployed women than among men. Among the unemployed, there are significantly more unmarried men than unmarried women.

Table 3. Gender and family characteristics of the Russian unemployed at the end of 2009, %

The highest share among the unemployed by age falls on young people aged 20-24 (21.8%). Here the gender feature does not play a significant role (22.3% among men, 21.2% among women). General dynamics of the unemployed by age in the gender groups is shown in Fig. 4.3.

Rice. Fig. 3. Age and gender structure of unemployed Russians: 1 — men; 2-women

The group of the highest risk and the threat of becoming unemployed are young people aged 20 to 29 years. The highest growth of unemployment is characteristic of rural youth (2 times higher than in 1992).

Table 1 shows how the two components of the object of economic sociology, "employed" and "unemployed", are statistically related to each other in the category of "economically active population". 4.

V financial and banking sector labor market to financial crisis The year 1998 was very dynamic and expanded rapidly, but after the financial crisis it drastically declined and became seriously deformed, which was accompanied by a reduction in the number of employees (especially in the banking sector) and increased downward social mobility of specialists.

Social Negative consequences unemployment associated with the transition of an individual from one status state (employed) to another (unemployed) manifest themselves: in the form of increased depression, a decrease in the level of social optimism, a break in established communication ties, changes value orientations, transition to a marginal state. The main thing is that the individual is deprived of the material base of his development, the level and quality of his life are falling.

Table 4. The structure of the economically active population of Russia in 2008, million people

Duration of unemployment(or the duration of the job search) is an important socio-psychological indicator and represents the time during which a person who has lost his job is looking for a new job opportunity, using any means for this.

The most widely used forms of job search are:

• appeal to the state, to the commercial employment service;
• submission of advertisements to the press, response to advertisements;
• appeal to friends, relatives, acquaintances;
• direct appeal to the administration, the employer - Internet search and initiative distribution of resumes to the addresses of potential employers - a form of employment used mainly by the unemployed age groups from 20-24 to 40-44 years old.

The average duration of the search for a new job was: 4.4 months. in 1992; 9.7 months in 1999; 7.7 months in 2008. This is a rather long period, which is explained by competition in the labor and employment market, as well as its limitations, especially in the regions.

According to the FSGS, in the second quarter of 2018, unemployment in Russia amounted to 4.8%. This is one of the lowest rates in the history of the Russian Federation. Compared to 2017, the statistics show increase in employment by 0.7 points. If we draw parallels with the crisis year of 2009, then the level of unemployment has almost halved altogether: in that year, the unemployment rate was 8.3%.

The unemployment rate is made up of the following values:

• The number of economically active population (EAP). The number of economically inactive citizens includes disabled, elderly or minors;
• Next, the unemployment rate itself is calculated in Russia: those from the EAN who are not employed are unemployed.

• Suppose we need to calculate the percentage of unemployed from 1000 people living in this particular region. From the total population, it is necessary to subtract economically inactive citizens - for example, there are 280 such people in the region;
• Among the remaining 720 people, 120 citizens do not work. We calculate the percentage of the total, we get the unemployment rate of 16.67%.

This is the method of counting Federal Service State Statistics (FSGS). Among economists, it is customary to use statistical data obtained from the FSGS, because. they are transparent and mathematically correct.

The dynamics of employment in Russia, according to the FSGS reports, shows that the unemployment rate in 2019-2020 is declining compared to previous years: on average in the country, it decreased from 5.5% in 2018 to 4.7%.

At the moment, statistics are available from the current reports only for the third quarter of 2019, but these data are enough to fully understand the situation: according to the FSSS reports, since September 2019, there has been no sharp deterioration in the situation in the field of unemployment.

Unemployment rate by age.

Unemployment depends on education.

Slices by region

Of course, employment dynamics vary by geography, demographic indicators region, etc. Therefore, the answer to the question of how many unemployed there are in Russia must always be clarified: whether we mean general federal values ​​or broken down into regions.

As of 2020, traditionally low unemployment is shown big cities federations, as well as highly urbanized regions. For example, Central Federal District, including Moscow and the Moscow region, shows an unemployment rate of 3.1% of the total number of able-bodied citizens (hereinafter - data for the second quarter of 2018).

Northwestern Federal District, including St. Petersburg and Leningrad region, lags slightly behind with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. V Volga Federal District unemployment rate is 4.7%, in other federal subjects indicators are approaching the general federal values.

And, conversely, more than 60% of all unemployed are in villages, villages and poorly urbanized regions: for example, the “leader” in this area is North Caucasian Federal District with an average of 11%. Individual subjects - for example, The Republic of Ingushetia- set new records: in this republic, the level of unemployment was 26.2%, Tyva Republic catches up with an indicator of 18.8%.

You can find a complete list of statistical data that takes into account the characteristics of the regions and their employment rates in the table below.

Dynamics of unemployment

At the moment, it can be argued that the number of unemployed in Russia has been steadily decreasing since 1999. Splashes of unemployment were observed only in the crisis years: 2009 and 2015.

The causes of unemployment in Russia are associated, as a rule, with the fall in oil prices - the main export commodity countries that make up the bulk of the federal GDP: if prices fall, the unemployment rate rises, but the opposite is also true.

Therefore, we could observe disastrous statistics on employment in the period from 1991 to 1999, when a barrel of oil cost $20-25 (compared to the current $60-65). This also explains the spikes in unemployment in 2008 and 2015.

According to official sources, the level of unemployment is falling due to low requirements for business - in particular, due to low minimum wages and the legal "flexibility" of Russian legislation. So, for example, many heads of enterprises in Russia register employees for the “minimum salary”, i.e. paying by employment contract only part of the real income, everything else is paid in an envelope.

Everyone, except the employee, remains a winner: the employer saves on tax deductions, FSGS receives data on high employment. An employee, on the other hand, receives low social protection due to the fact that receiving a salary in an envelope automatically means the risk of fraud on the part of the employer. Not quite legal employment leads to other problems: formalization of bureaucracy, concealment from the state of real statistics.

AND from here we can conclude about the so-called. "hidden unemployment". These are people who are officially listed as employed, but in fact do not receive income. In this case, the employer uses legal loopholes and, for example, sends the employee on long unpaid leave. As a result, a person actually does not work, but does not fall into the unemployment statistics.

Therefore, the dynamics of employment in the country as a whole is as follows:

• Official unemployment is declining. Since 2018, it has fallen by 0.7 points to a value of 4.8%. Note: these figures also include problem regions with traditionally low employment;
• As a result of the crisis, the shadow sector is growing, followed by hidden unemployment. Unlike European countries, in the Russian Federation the calculation of the level of employment is carried out without taking into account hidden unemployment, as a result, the unemployment rate in the country is one of the lowest in the world. But these data do not reflect the real situation. And these realities, unfortunately, show the disappointing state of the labor market.

Forecast of what to expect in 2020

We can expect the continuation of the trends observed in modern Russia: Unemployment, both real and official, is unlikely to increase. In this regard, the opinion of the director of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting of the RANEPA Tatyana Maleva, who studies the current labor market in the country, is very indicative (quote from an interview with RIA Novosti):

“Yes, Russia has low unemployment - one of the lowest in the world. But in economic theory there is a clear correlation: with a low standard of living, low unemployment costs the population low wages. And vice versa: if salaries are high, and the standard of living as a whole falls across the country, unemployment increases greatly - we see this in the example of modern Spain. In other words, if the standard of living falls but employment does not, the level of wages».

Unemployment in the world.

Based on official data, registered unemployment will not increase, at least not fast. However, since 2014, the standard of living has been steadily falling, which leads to two consequences:

• Although official statistics will not register this, the rate of hidden unemployment and the role of the shadow sector will increase;
• Finally, wages in real terms (ie, in terms of a food basket that can be purchased in Russian rubles) will decrease even more significantly.

Conclusion

So, what is the unemployment rate in Russia? The Russian Federation is characterized low level employment in poorly urbanized regions and, conversely, in large metropolitan areas there are still many vacancies. By 2020, the employment rate has increased by another 0.7 points, which is a very good indicator overall.

However, official statistics do not reflect the real situation on the labor market due to the widespread use of "shadow" payments. Therefore, in 2020, one should not expect a sharp drop in officially registered employment in the country; an actual drop in this indicator is also unlikely. Will become a problem in the near future unless the reduction of wages in real terms.