What does the dollar exchange rate depend on? What affects the dollar exchange rate? Reasons and factors for strong influence on the currency What affects ruble quotes

A few months ago, oil suddenly began to become cheaper, the dollar and euro rates first crawled, and a little later jumped up, making our ruble cheap, and this was the beginning of a crisis from which Russia has not yet emerged. Cheap ruble It’s beneficial for the state, but not for ordinary citizens. Let's figure out what determines the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and euro. It is equally interesting to find out whether it is possible to predict the rise or fall in price of the Russian currency.

Educational program for dummies

Let's try briefly and in simple words conduct an educational program, as they say, for dummies, about how Russian ruble becomes more expensive and cheaper.

Price movements on currency exchanges They only seem chaotic, but in fact the value of the ruble, dollar and euro depends on a number of circumstances that are completely man-made.

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The factors on which the currency price in Russia depends can be divided into external and internal.

Let us list the reasons that externally influence the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar:

• World oil prices– in Russia today almost everything depends on the sale of oil. Being actually a raw materials appendage of the civilized world, our country is directly dependent on oil trading, and since the price per barrel is set in dollars, the higher it is, the higher the price of the ruble against the dollar.

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But when oil prices fall, Russia experiences a loss of profits and is immediately followed by a devaluation of the ruble to avoid a decrease in the ruble equivalent of revenue from oil sales.

• The value of the dollar in relation to the currencies of other countries– as soon as the US dollar depreciates, for example, against the euro, its price also decreases against the ruble.

Now let’s look at the internal factors on which the dollar/ruble exchange rate in Russia depends:

• Demand for foreign currency– fluctuations in the value of securities on stock market lead to increased demand for stable currency, that is, per US dollar. And along with demand, the price of the dollar rises. In order to prevent the situation from developing into a crisis, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is conducting currency interventions, knocking down the excessively increased dollar exchange rate.

• Political and economic situation in Russia– the value of domestic money largely depends on the mood in society and its trust in the authorities. During crises, the population begins to buy dollars and euros, believing that in this way they will protect their savings from loss, thereby provoking an increase in the price of foreign currencies and collapsing the value of the ruble.

Do not hurry!

In our review, it is important for the teapot to understand one thing: you should not immediately succumb to the whipped-up hysteria and run to the exchange office to buy dollars and euros, trying to get rid of the depreciating rubles. The ongoing crisis is largely to blame for those same currency speculators who artificially inflated the price of the dollar in the wake of panic rumors about falling oil prices.

Someone suddenly became rich, and the vast majority of the Russian population had to tighten their belts, finding themselves broke, with suddenly cheaper salaries, with which they can buy less and less.

The Greek events returned Russians to anxious thoughts about the fate of their savings. What and how can influence the ruble exchange rate in current situation? This question worries literally everyone today.

In general terms, the ruble exchange rate is set on the Moscow Exchange; it is determined by supply and demand for the dollar and the euro. But there are a number of factors that influence this process. About them we'll talk below.

Factor 1. Oil price

It is impossible to overestimate its importance, since world prices for raw materials have a huge impact on Russian budget. After all, more than half of its revenue consists of profits generated by the export of raw materials, including oil. According to Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Dmitry Tulin, the course national currency very dependent on the state of the current account of the balance of payments. The current account, in turn, is affected by the prices of oil and other raw materials that make up Russian exports. Thus, the increase in world prices for black gold in the 2000s allowed the ruble to strengthen against the main world currencies by 20 - 25%. In 2014, after the collapse of oil prices, the ruble to dollar exchange rate dropped by almost half.

Factor 2. Sanctions

This factor appeared recently, but it was it that largely influenced the fate of the ruble in 2014. As Anton Soroko, an analyst at the Finam investment holding, explained, last summer the West imposed sanctions against Russia, which were expressed not only in a ban on trade operations, but also in the need to repay external debt without refinancing.

Previously ours large companies took out loans abroad, due to more low rates and more favorable rates euro and dollar. It was more convenient for businesses to re-borrow money rather than repay loans in full. At the end of the term of one loan, another was taken out to cover it (also abroad), that is, there was no need to withdraw funds from circulation. The ruble exchange rate was unaffected by these manipulations. But with the introduction of sanctions, our companies lost this opportunity. Now for repayment external debts they had to buy dollars and euros on the domestic market, which led to a currency shortage. This deficit was largely contributed to by many companies purchasing foreign currency for future use, due to fears of a further appreciation of the exchange rate.

Due to the rush demand for the dollar and euro, their rates increased. The Central Bank was forced to spend. It came to the introduction of special auctions at which companies and banks borrowed foreign currency at a small interest rate. This is what partly helped save the situation.

Factor 3. Benefits from devaluation

Due to the decline in oil prices, the revenue side of the Russian Federation budget has decreased significantly. However, the government has a mechanism to mitigate the consequences of this reduction due to the ruble exchange rate. With a weak ruble, every dollar that comes into the country is worth more, and treasury expenses are still made in rubles. This reduces the shortage.

IN recent months the value of the ruble was 50 - 60 rubles per dollar. However, here you need to know when to stop, since with an excess, inflation will begin to rise, because our economy is dependent on import supplies. That's why, weak ruble cannot be seen as a solution to all budget problems. But the economy as a whole can benefit from it.

Some government officials say that, despite all the negativity, for some industries the sanctions have become an incentive for development. First of all, this concerns Agriculture, whose products previously could not compete with imported ones, since imported products were cheaper. Now everything has changed. There are positive results in some other areas as well.

According to experts, the Central Bank is now counteracting the sharp strengthening of the ruble by purchasing currency on the exchange to replenish international reserves. The regulator denies this. However, the dollar exchange rate was below 50 rubles for only a few days in May, and then began to rise again.

Factor 4. The situation in the global economy

Due to globalization processes, countries have become interdependent, therefore, some news from other parts of the world concerns us directly. Firstly, the situation around Greece, which is also facing exit from the eurozone. Next, the largest last years collapse in Chinese. And finally, negotiations between Iran and the West on the fate of sanctions.

Someone will ask, well, what does Russia have to do with it? However, the answer is obvious. For example, China is the largest oil consumer in the world. The crisis in this country will lead to a sharp decrease in purchases of raw materials and a drop in the price of “black gold”, and, as a consequence, to a depreciation of the ruble.

With Iran the situation is different. When sanctions are lifted from him, he will double the supply of oil for export. There are enough Iranian raw materials to increase supply on the world market. Well, the consequences of such a development of events are clear.

In Greece, the situation is much more complicated, but for the ruble the situation in this country is still threatening. Experts explain that the Greek crisis is fraught with investors leaving risky assets, and the ruble, as a commodity currency, is one of them. To save their savings, investors invest in US and Japanese bonds, which causes the dollar and yen to rise. In the future, demand for safe assets, represented today mainly by the dollar and gold, will increase. This will lead to a devaluation of the ruble. In a word, the ruble benefits from the prosperity of oil-consuming countries and problems in exporting countries, and not vice versa.

Factor 5. Stock speculation

Everyone knows that there are professional players in the foreign exchange market who make money from exchange rate fluctuations. It happens that people join these gambling games large banks. Especially if there is a good reason or even several. Since large players invest in the foreign exchange market large amounts, then they are quite capable of influencing the ruble exchange rate by changing the balance of supply and demand. The rest of the small speculators are trying to predict the development of the situation, further increasing the fluctuations.

According to a representative of one of the forex companies, at the end of last year all clients bought only dollars; at that time only a crazy person could make other bets.

Managing the dollar exchange rate is an extremely difficult task, because on the world market their number amounts to tens of trillions. With the ruble it’s a different matter; for this you only need a few billion “greens”. Everyone remembers how George Soros collapsed in the 90s British pound sterling by as much as 15% in just a day! It would be possible to pull off even more scams with the ruble. If not for the Central Bank.

The regulator has levers to influence the ruble exchange rate. However, he extremely rarely intervenes in exchange rate formation, only if he sees an inadequate fall or strengthening of the Russian currency. Then currency interventions come into play. That is, to strengthen the ruble, currency from reserves is sold; to reduce its price, on the contrary, currency is bought up. This is how the Central Bank acted in the 2000s, when the price of oil was sky-high. It was during those blessed times that we filled our capsules.

However, according to experts, the actions of the Central Bank are not always timely. A striking example is the end of last year, when the regulator allowed a currency panic.

What conclusion do we draw?

Today there are enough reasons for both the weakening of the ruble and its strengthening. It is very difficult for ordinary tourists and investors to foresee all situations, therefore, the most reasonable thing is to keep money in different currencies. This is the most reliable way to ensure peace of mind and preserve the majority of your savings in any crisis.

About 100 years have passed since the time when the whole world began to follow the course American dollar. People watch any of his rise or fall with close attention.

What does the dollar exchange rate depend on?

What reasons determine the price and growth of the dollar, the ratio of the value of currencies different countries? Why does it sometimes become cheaper? You will find answers to these questions below. The reasons for the ups and downs will be discussed in this material.

Changes specified cost, first of all, depend on the lending system, which dictates its conditions to the whole world. To be more precise, the country’s economic system, which repays loans taken from American banks.

Also, the dollar equivalent directly depends on the amount of American gold, that is, the greater the amount of gold the state has, the more confidently the monetary unit of the named country is held on the banking exchanges. This principle applies to any currency and country. A striking example is the African states, where the number precious metals much more and its production is carried out by private companies.

The behavior of a currency is so unpredictable that even the most advanced experts cannot predict 100% how it will behave.

Oscillation data American money to the ruble are not chaotic, they have certain prerequisites and reasons.

Reasons for price fluctuations

The reasons can be divided into the following groups:

• internal;
• external.

External factors

The main external factors influencing the growth of the dollar are the world oil price. Since Russia is an oil appendage of the world, its economy directly depends on the price of this strategic raw material. There is a direct relationship: the higher the price of oil in dollars, the lower the exchange rate of the American currency to the Russian ruble. This condition is the main and decisive factor influencing the exchange rate of the American currency to Russian currency. If the price of oil begins to fall, then Russia begins to lose profits from oil sales. It is forced to carry out the process of devaluing its own money so that the ruble equivalent of revenue for the cost of oil does not decrease or does not decrease very noticeably.

An important “external” factor is also to other currencies. Provided that if the American monetary unit becomes cheaper against the euro, then it becomes cheaper against the ruble.

Internal factors

The main internal factor influencing fluctuations of the dollar against the Russian ruble is the demand for currency in Russian Federation. If there is a fall in stock market prices, investors move from stocks to more reliable assets. As a result, the demand for currency increases, and along with the demand, the exchange rate also increases. This process can often be resisted by currency interventions of the Central Bank of Russia.

Another reason is the general economic and political situation in Russia. During periods of crisis, confidence in local currencies decreases, the population begins to buy dollars, as the most stable and reliable monetary unit. This leads to a significant increase in the exchange rate of the American currency against the Russian ruble.

Parameters affecting the dollar exchange rate

The main parameters affecting the price of the US dollar relative to other currencies:

• the volume of current emissions, this indicator directly affects the value of the monetary unit;
• the economy of the country, which is called the issuer. The stronger the economy of the United States of America, the less likely it is that the value of its currency will decline.

The main thing is still the second parameter, especially when it comes to comparing the economic situations of other countries.

The main reason for the rise and fall of the exchange rate is the volume of dollars issued. The greater the number of them produced, the less valuable they are. This is the main idea of ​​the market law of supply and demand. Due to the emergence of demand for American currency, it has become expensive monetary unit th powerful market economy peace.

According to financial experts, 61% of money issued in the global economy is dollars. Millions of financial transactions are carried out using dollar currency. Large volume of issued financial resources leads to the fact that inflation can be colossal.

We can conclude that it is the economy of the United States of America that determines the exchange rate of the dollar currency. The more stable the economic condition of enterprises, the higher the level of industry, the more powerful the economy, the more stable the monetary unit. How less debts borrowing state, the stronger its currency. Behind in cash Such a territory is undoubtedly worth not only its obligations, but also its resources.

The above conditions are violated by the USA. Since June 2011, the US economy has been weakening. Evidence of this process is the increase in the unemployment rate. The index is falling industrial production. Thus, the dollar becomes the currency of a weakening economy. As a result, their prices become cheaper and their exchange rate falls.

All of the above parameters, reasons and factors in relation to the American currency show its gradual depreciation. This is also affected by inflation, which is typical for the modern market.

Experts argue, analyzing the events of the last 10 years, that the dollar is currently in its weakest position. This process will not go unnoticed in relation to ruble policy, which also depends on the price of oil.

When talking about the ruble exchange rate, the Bank of Russia never gives forecasts on the exchange rate. He cannot answer the question of how much the ruble will cost in a day, week or month. At the same time, the regulator largely influences how much the currency will cost. Central Bank experts explained to The Village how the exchange rate is formed, what factors influence it, what happened to the ruble last year and what is happening right now.

How are exchange rates formed?

There are different modes exchange rate, but in most countries it is determined by market processes. In some places, Central banks interfere in exchange rate formation a little more, in others a little less.

If the intervention of the Central Bank is minimal, the rate is called free floating. Manage the exchange rate central bank maybe through buying or selling foreign currency(this is what interventions are). If external factors push the national currency rate up too much, the Central Bank accumulates its reserves in foreign currency. Conversely, when the exchange rate sharply declines, the Central Bank is forced to spend its reserves. If negative factors are long-term in nature, reserves can be wasted very quickly, and as a result, the exchange rate will still not be able to be maintained.

If Central Bank there are a lot of reserves, he can generally fix the exchange rate, that is, declare that he is ready to buy and sell any amount of currency at a pre-announced rate. In this case, no one will exchange currency at a different rate, although this is not prohibited. Fixed exchange rate policies were popular in the last century, but most countries have now moved away from them.

The ruble exchange rate was strictly fixed in 1995–1998, and was flexible, but strictly controlled in 2000–2008. It was after financial crisis 2008, when maintaining the ruble exchange rate cost Russia about a third gold and foreign exchange reserves, it was decided to move from course management policy to management interest rates and inflation targeting by 2015. ( We have already talked about what affects inflation. - Approx. edit.).

How the ruble fell

On schedule, by the end of 2014, the ruble began to float freely.
From this moment on, the Central Bank no longer had any obvious or hidden goals for the exchange rate, and foreign exchange interventions (that is, purchasing a large amount of currency to maintain the exchange rate) were resorted to only in cases of threats. financial stability. When and how the Central Bank’s currency interventions took place, you can see.

The abolition of the existing currency corridor was announced on November 10, and in fact, the Central Bank’s foreign exchange interventions ceased on December 16.

On this day, the exchange rate fluctuated by 27%. For comparison: around the same time, Switzerland refused to peg the exchange rate to the euro, and jumps in the franc exchange rate within one day reached 31%. The sharp fall in the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and the euro was very painful, but it was impossible to postpone the transition to a floating exchange rate.

What happened then with the ruble exchange rate is now often called devaluation.
But strictly speaking, this is not so. Devaluation is a planned and controlled decrease in the exchange rate of a currency in a controlled manner by the Central Bank. IN modern history In Russia this happened twice. The first time was in August 1998, the second time was during the global financial crisis in 2008, when the Central Bank, through massive interventions, pursued a policy of gradual devaluation.

What factors influenced the ruble exchange rate

The ruble has been under unprecedented pressure since February-March 2014. The difficult geopolitical situation and the introduction of financial sanctions have led to an increase in the risk premium for investments in Russian assets. All this, together with negative investor sentiment, increased pressure on the ruble exchange rate. It was possible to stabilize the situation in March only thanks to massive foreign exchange interventions, that is, at the cost of a significant reduction in Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves.

It was possible to stabilize the situation in March only thanks to massive foreign exchange interventions, that is at the cost of a significant reduction Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves.

Subsequently, a steady downward trend in oil prices was added to the negative factors, and the peak period for payments on external debts approached the end of the year. All this caused an even greater depreciation of the ruble and created panic about the exchange rate and inflation. They were fueled by expectations of a decline investment ratings Russia and Russian companies, fears of introducing capital controls and so on. Against this background, the rate dropped to a level that was significantly lower than the fundamentally justified one, or, more simply, determined by oil prices.

In December, the Bank of Russia partially compensated for the worsening situation with a sharp (first to 10.5%, then to 17%) increase key rate and reducing to a minimum interest rates on transactions providing foreign exchange liquidity on a repayable basis. Simply put, if the Central Bank used to sell foreign currency, now it lends it.

How the ruble grew

After the dramatic period of late 2014 - early 2015 was over, the ruble exchange rate stabilized at a new equilibrium point. This happened for several reasons:

Oil prices stopped falling and even rose by a third compared to the minimum level in 2014.

Fears of restrictions on the movement of capital by the Russian authorities have gone away, and a round of downgrading of Russian country and corporate ratings has passed quietly.

Some bad news foreign policy almost not.

The Central Bank's policy of providing liquidity (currency repo auctions) has reduced the cost of currency for Russian borrowers.

Inevitable slowdown Russian economy turned out to be significantly lower than experts' expectations. The Central Bank believes that it will be much less than, for example, in the post-crisis period in 2009, since the ruble exchange rate took the main blow.

When Russian assets that had fallen in price again turned out to be attractive among investors, the ruble began to win back its fall from last year.

What will happen next

The influx of investment cannot continue indefinitely; sooner or later it will weaken. This will happen when the exchange rate strengthens so much that the yield on some assets decreases too much and ceases to compensate for the depreciation of the ruble expected by investors due to inflation. That is, the appreciation of the ruble will stop, and the exchange rate will stabilize around the new values, which, in fact, is already happening.

Most likely, there will be no more sharp currency fluctuations, but the ruble will continue to fluctuate up or down.

Due to the fact that the yields on Russian foreign currency assets reached the level of last fall, the Central Bank adjusted the rates on foreign currency repo transactions. This decision reduced the difference in returns between investing in dollar and ruble assets. At the same time, the ruble depreciated somewhat. Changes in interest rates on the Central Bank's foreign exchange and ruble operations will continue to have some impact on the ruble exchange rate, along with other factors. Among them are changes in oil prices, the introduction or lifting of sanctions, the dynamics of inflation expectations, the exchange rate monetary policy other countries and so on. Most likely, there will be no more sharp fluctuations in the currency, but the ruble will still continue to fluctuate up or down.

We thank the experts of the Central Bank and First Deputy Chairman Ksenia Yudaeva for their assistance in preparing the material.

18.06.2014 81 734 48 Reading time: 15 min.

In this article I want to tell you what does the exchange rate depend on?, and consider the main factors influencing exchange rate . As you know, the exchange rate is one of the most important countries, and is very important for effective exchange rates. Therefore, any person who wants to tidy up and secure personal finance, must have a good understanding of what the exchange rate depends on in order to quickly predict its changes and apply them in practice in order to improve their own financial well-being.

Factors influencing the exchange rate

Trade balance of the state

The trade balance is the ratio of exports and import operations. When exporting goods and services, foreign exchange earnings come into the country, and when importing goods and services, on the contrary, foreign currency leaves the country. Therefore, if trade balance negative, biased towards imports (the country imports more than it exports), this always puts pressure on the national currency, its exchange rate decreases, since the country develops a foreign currency shortage. And, conversely, when the trade balance is positive, biased towards exports (the country exports more than it imports), the national currency always strengthens, since the country has a surplus of foreign currency.

However, a positive trade balance is not always good, especially if its balance (the difference between exports and imports) is very large. An overvalued currency of a country is just as bad as an undervalued one, and maybe even worse. Indeed, in this case, the cost of its goods increases, and they become uncompetitive in the market. foreign markets. In such a situation, the country's Central Bank takes actions aimed not at strengthening, but at reducing the exchange rate of the national currency. For example, 2-3 years ago this happened in Japan.

The trade balance is one of key factors affecting the exchange rate. Ideally, a country's trade balance should be close to zero (that is, exports should be approximately equal to imports) - in this case, the exchange rate will be most stable.

Macroeconomic indicators of the country

This includes indicators such as the inflation rate, unemployment rate, gross domestic product etc. Each country calculates its own the most important indicators, but the main ones are always similar. All these data characterize their directions of development of the state’s economy and have an impact on the exchange rate. Eg, high inflation and unemployment always has a negative impact on the exchange rate of the national currency, while production growth, on the contrary, supports and strengthens the national currency.

The exchange rate is affected by both actual and forecast indicators, and particularly sharp jumps in rates can be observed during the period when the indicator is released, if its actual value does not coincide with the forecast one.

Policy of the country's Central Bank

The policy of the Central Bank is one of the fundamental factors. Here we should consider several areas of action carried out by the central banks of states, which have a strong impact on the exchange rate.

Issue of money

In most cases, additional emission stimulates a depreciation of the national currency, because its money supply is growing, which means the value of money is falling. But not always: for example, the US Federal Reserve System practically “non-stop” prints new dollars, and they still continue to remain the strongest world currency, since they competently use other instruments of monetary regulation that restrain dollar inflation.

Currency interventions

When the Central Bank needs to strengthen or weaken the national currency, it conducts, that is, sells or buys large quantities of foreign currency on the interbank foreign exchange market of the country at a low or high rate, thereby reducing or increasing its value. All this happens at the expense of the state’s foreign exchange reserves, so the larger the country’s foreign exchange reserves, the more opportunities the Central Bank has to regulate the exchange rate.

Currency interventions tend to have a temporary effect. For a permanent strengthening or weakening of the exchange rate, the influence of other factors will be required.

Discount rate

Another regulator of the Central Bank - or the refinancing rate - is the percentage at which the Central Bank can issue loans commercial banks. The lower it is, the more accessible credit resources are, the more loans are issued to the economy, the more goods and services are produced, and therefore the more stable the exchange rate of the national currency. Experience shows that countries with the lowest interest rates have the most strong currencies in the world.

Operations with debt obligations

If the Central Bank wants to increase the exchange rate of the national currency, it issues and sells to legal and individuals their debentures(so-called government domestic loan bonds or treasury bonds) - securities, which involve receiving a fixed income and the opportunity to make money on the growth of their value. Thus, he removes money supply national currency, it becomes smaller, which means its value increases. The profitability of such bonds is directly dependent on how much money the Central Bank plans to collect, and their reliability is guaranteed by the state.

When it is necessary to reduce the exchange rate of the national currency, the Central Bank, on the contrary, begins to buy up its obligations, increasing their value, thereby increasing the money supply.

Verbal interventions

Many central bank policy instruments can have an impact on the exchange rate, even if they are not actually applied, but are so-called. “verbal”, that is, voiced only in words. For example, the Central Bank declares that it plans to conduct a large foreign exchange intervention, traders in the markets, in anticipation of a strengthening of the national currency, begin to buy it, and the rate rises naturally, even without actual implementation this intervention.

The Central Bank is the body in the state that is entrusted with maintaining a stable exchange rate of the national currency, therefore it always has a number of effective levers in reserve, which it uses as necessary and possible.

Large investment projects and foreign trade contracts

Speaking about what the exchange rate depends on, it should be noted, so to speak, the future plans of the state, which are directly or indirectly related to the inflow or outflow of foreign currency. The implementation of such projects may have an impact on the trade balance, and this is the main factor influencing the exchange rate.

Implementation of large investment projects can plan both outflow and inflow of currency; large export contracts imply an influx of foreign currency earnings, and import contracts imply an outflow. If this is planned (for example, contracts have already been approved and signed), further actions may affect the exchange rate.

Public confidence in the national currency

The extent to which the population trusts their country's currency greatly influences the exchange rate. If people prefer, it means that there is always an increased demand for it, which will have a negative impact on the exchange rate of the national currency. And this demand, if it exists, is very difficult to stop. Even if the Central Bank begins to apply its regulations, for example, restricts the sale of foreign currency, introduces additional commission fees for these operations, prohibits foreign currency deposits, etc., this often leads to the opposite effect: a black market for currency begins to operate, where it is sold at even higher prices , panic begins among people, a currency rush begins, which leads to sharp jumps in the exchange rate.

During a period of panic, a situation always arises when (even with large commissions) in order to retain currency position, which further fuels the black market and inflates the exchange rate to unimaginable limits. Surely you all periodically observe a similar situation.

By creating a rush demand for currency, people themselves provoke its growth. The preferences of the population and panic sentiment are very important factors influencing the exchange rate. In some situations, they are even the only ones! (that is, there are no other serious prerequisites for the growth of the foreign exchange rate, but it is growing solely because of panic). As a result, this always leads to an equally rapid drop in the exchange rate, and all those who bought currency at the peak of the panic find themselves at a loss. Therefore, always think carefully and do not panic in the absence of other factors affecting the exchange rate!

Currency speculation

It often happens that major participants interbank (or even global) foreign exchange market they deliberately “shake up” the exchange rate in order to obtain speculative earnings. Seeing such a case, the Central Bank may intervene in the process, imposing certain sanctions on these participants, but still this situation is far from uncommon, and everyone involved has probably observed it more than once.

The so-called “currency swings” can have a very serious impact on the exchange rate, but it will be short-term, so this situation can be used to earn money, but in no case to transfer your savings from one currency to another.

Force majeure

And finally, speaking about factors affecting the exchange rate, we cannot fail to mention force majeure circumstances. For example, military actions, serious protest movements, mass strikes, terrorist attacks, etc. also always have a serious impact on the exchange rate of the country in which this occurs. This impact can be either short-term in nature, if the circumstance is quickly eliminated, or protracted, if it continues for a long time, or has led to irreversible consequences in the economy and financial sector, requiring long-term recovery.

For example, everyone probably remembers that when a major terrorist attack occurred in the United States on September 11, 2001, the dollar exchange rate fell sharply around the world. However, this drop turned out to be short-lived.

I have only briefly listed the main factors influencing the exchange rate. Of course, you can consider each of them in more detail, but this information will already be enough to navigate currency pricing and learn to correctly predict changes in exchange rates, which will allow you to avoid mistakes and will have a positive impact on the state of your personal finances.

That's all. The site strives to ensure that your financial literacy has always met the requirements of current realities. Stay with us and stay tuned for updates. See you again!

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