Euro exchange rate forecast for the 1st quarter. Forecasts of dollar and euro exchange rates for the fall. Bet on strengthening

The European currency retains good potential for further strengthening, which is reflected in the euro exchange rate forecasts for the fall of 2017.

Improved macroeconomic dynamics in the eurozone has an impact on investor behavior. In addition, a decrease in political uncertainty has a positive effect on the position of the European currency.

Bet on strengthening

During 2017, the European currency strengthened against the dollar by 5.9%, which is becoming a stable trend. Investor preferences are associated with positive election results in European countries, which reduces risks for the continued existence of the EU. In addition, the restoration of the growth rate of the eurozone economy will allow the ECB to move on to winding down the quantitative easing program. At the same time, the dynamics of the US economy in 2017 lags behind analysts’ expectations, which negatively affects the position of the dollar.

HSBC representatives emphasize the change in investor sentiment regarding the US currency. If previously speculators preferred to bet on strong dollar, the lack of real reforms announced by Donald Trump was reflected in the outflow of capital in favor of the euro. As a result, quotes of the European currency have overcome the level of 1.11 dollars/euro and will continue to move towards the level of 1.15.

Barclays analysts also expect a gradual strengthening of the European currency. American banks recovered more quickly from the 2008 crisis, which led to the strengthening of the dollar in previous periods. However, increasing uncertainty for American economy in 2017 will contribute to the weakening of the dollar in the medium term.

In 2017, the ECB will be able to move to reducing purchase volumes financial assets aimed at stimulating economic development. Despite keeping the rate at zero, the winding down of the quantitative easing policy will strengthen the position of the euro in the near term. At the same time, the increase in the Fed's key rate will lag behind analysts' expectations, which will play against the dollar.

A negative factor for the euro remains the lack of consensus with the UK on the final terms of Brexit. Foggy Albion and the EU cannot agree on the final amounts of compensation, as well as the further format of trade relations and migration policy. As a result, the eurozone economy may suffer additional losses, which will affect investor activity.

In the fall of 2017, the euro/ruble exchange rate will also begin to rise, analysts predict. At the same time, the scale of changes in currency quotes will depend on the volatility of the oil market.

Euro vs ruble

in autumn current year The euro will continue to strengthen its position against the ruble, experts predict. Against the backdrop of the positive dynamics of the European currency, changes in the value of the ruble will be caused by price fluctuations in the oil market.

Despite concerted measures by OPEC aimed at limiting oil production, oil prices will not be able to overcome the level of $50 per barrel. Oil consumption volumes are growing at an insufficient pace to level out existing surpluses. At the same time, exporters who have not joined the agreement continue to increase their supply of “black gold,” which maintains existing imbalances. First of all, oil prices remain under pressure as a result of growing shale oil production in the United States.

In addition to oil, Western sanctions and a decrease in the attractiveness of domestic assets have a negative impact on the position of the ruble. The outflow of speculative capital as a result of a reduction in the Central Bank rate will reduce the value of the ruble in the near future. In addition, the domestic budget deficit remains high level, which forces the government to look for additional sources to finance existing expenses. A moderate weakening of the ruble will increase the state treasury's revenue from energy exports, which will make it easier for the government to meet budget targets.

Summer is not ending well for the ruble. If in June 1 euro could be bought for 63.5 rubles, then in August the rate reached 72 rubles. In dollar terms, the same figures were 56.5 and 60.7 rubles, respectively. Respected experts gave their forecast for the fall.

Analyst at BCS Financial Group Ivan Kopeikin

September will be one of the most difficult months for the ruble, as Russian companies will have to pay external debts on total amount$9 billion. Less was paid in June-July.

The following external factors are also expected to impact in the fall:

• Meetings of the ECB and the Federal Reserve will be held, at which decisions may be made on a gradual tightening monetary policy. The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are going to improve the attractiveness of their currencies, which could play against the ruble, especially considering the Bank of Russia’s policy aimed at lowering the key rate.
• Challenges to US tax and infrastructure reforms remain ongoing. It is unclear how much of Trump's campaign promises will be fulfilled. If reforms continue to stall, the dollar may come under increased pressure, which will help the ruble feel more confident against the US currency.

So, the forecast for the end of autumn is as follows: 61.5 rubles/dollar and 72 rubles/euro.

Investment analyst at Global FX Sergey Kostenko

Among the positive trends for the ruble are oil prices above $50 per barrel and active sales by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The latter is partly due to the large difference between the refinancing rate (9%) and (4%). This situation contributes to the demand for debt securities among non-residents.

There are more negative factors:

• Worsening balance trade balance Russia in the second quarter
• Growing geopolitical tensions. The instability associated with the North Korean crisis has a negative impact on the volume of purchases of developing countries' currencies.
• Expansion of American sanctions.
• Shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. The support that the Federal Reserve is going to provide to the dollar will lead to capital outflow foreign investors from the Russian market.

Most likely, negative factors will outweigh positive ones, and the ruble will continue to depreciate. We should expect upward dynamics of the dollar/ruble pair already in last days August. At the end of the tax period, the exchange rate will return to 60 rubles/dollar, and the weakening of the ruble will continue in the future.

Forecast: 65 rub./dollar and 75 rub./euro.

Leading analyst at AMarkets Artem Deev

Continued US sanctions pressure limits the influx of speculative foreign capital in the Russian Federation and prevents the strengthening of the ruble. In the fall there will be even more reasons for concern. Investors are already adjusting their policies in connection with the planned rate hike in Europe and the Federal Reserve's plans to strengthen the dollar.

Oil prices can also play a negative role. Recently, the Kuwaiti authorities announced a possible change in OPEC's policy to limit oil production. This issue will be considered at a meeting of exporting countries in November. And Russia may not want to adhere to restrictions on oil production after the first quarter of 2018. The oil market is still oversupplied, and a barrel risks falling below $45.

According to the forecast for the end of autumn Deev I completely agree with Kostenko.

Head of Private Solutions Singapore Castle Family office Stanislav Werner

The Fed is expected to begin reducing its balance sheet in September. After this, the dollar will strengthen and there will be an outflow of funds from developing countries. So far, the ruble is showing stability in anticipation of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation resuming its rate cut cycle at its meeting to be held on September 15. Last 3 weeks consumer prices are decreasing, which allows us to predict a decrease in the key rate by 0.5%.

In addition, two factors are currently playing into the hands of the ruble: taxable period and reasonable oil prices. Therefore, the beginning of September will be positive for the domestic currency: the dollar may fall in price by 0.5-1 ruble.

But then it will be more difficult. Oil prices are now holding up thanks to the driving season in the States and the promise of the Saudi Arabian authorities to reduce oil sales volumes in September. In the future, the dollar may strengthen, which will entail an outflow of foreign capital from the Russian Federation. As a result, the stability of the ruble will weaken, and the exchange rate will turn in the opposite direction.

Most analysts surveyed by InvestFuture predict a significant weakening of the ruble/dollar exchange rate in the autumn months. The key negative factors cited by experts are the expected weakening of demand for oil on world markets, a consistent reduction in the Bank of Russia rate, as well as growing geopolitical tensions and the expansion of anti-Russian sanctions.

In the fall of 2017, experts predict that the dollar/ruble exchange rate will strengthen to 65 rubles per unit of American currency. The euro exchange rate may rise above 72 rubles.

Vadim Pischikov (Algebra Investments): “68 rubles per dollar is a completely correct forecast given the current volatility of the ruble. In principle, for the currency of any developing country, a 10% fluctuation in the exchange rate is very moderate. I cannot say that this is the influence solely of sanctions. Very rapid growth in credit markets , on capital markets, shares in developing countries in the first half of 2017 led to the fact that investors simply decided to take profits in anticipation of the reduction of the balance sheet at the US Federal Reserve and rebalance their losses. In addition, there was news that Washington was preparing new sanctions. known back at the end of April, but the ruble did not react very much to this."

Yakov Mirkin (head of department international markets capital of IMEMO RAS): " On the one hand, we have long been talking about the fact that the ruble is too heavy, overvalued, does not correspond to such a weak economy, and that for it a rate of 65-66, maybe 70, is more organic. On the other hand, everyone understood that the wave of carry trade was growing from the second half of last year, and as soon as non-residents, who became more and more in percentage terms by Russian market, they feel an increase in risks - and this may indeed be associated with sanctions - then an increase in the export of capital from the country will begin. Of course, sanctions are another factor in the overall global and macroeconomic picture."

“I agree that there is a tense expectation of some kind of shock in the air, but, from my point of view, this could be with equal probability both a correction in the ruble and a correction in the American S&P 500. There is a lot of political passion in the market news feed: fundamental factors have faded into the background,” says a leading analyst Management Company "Horizon" Vladimir Rozhankovsky.

When will the ruble fall?

Rozhankovsky from Horizon Management Company notes that in the summer, no unusual volumes are visible in the dollar/ruble and euro/ruble pairs. The ruble in the coming months will not leave the range of 59.2-60.8 rubles per dollar, he believes. Meanwhile, the dollar index is already below 94 points, and oil is relatively stable, the analyst points out.

In the absence of cardinal events on the oil market and on the world political arena from the point of view technical analysis The pair may soon move in the trading corridor of 59-60.5 rubles, where significant levels of resistance and support are located, respectively, the trader of operations management in the Russian stock market IR "Freedom Finance" Vladimir Shumakov.

We are not seeing any particular weakening of the ruble, the dollar/ruble pair remains in the range of 58-60, the maximum of July 11 at 61 is still far away, the analyst also notes "VTB 24 " Alexey Mikheev.

As for the euro/ruble pair, it actually updated the maximum of this year, almost reaching 70, but this is due to the fact that in recent days at the international foreign exchange market The euro-dollar pair has reached its highs of the year (the 1.16 mark is shown), Mikheev points out.

According to Mikheev from VTB 24, a new wave of ruble weakening should be expected in the midst of autumn, when demand for oil falls due to seasonal reasons. In the meantime, time after time, data show a reduction in US oil reserves, which supports its price, he notes. In the fall, the dollar-ruble pair may well rise to 63-65 rubles per dollar, the expert predicts.

Will the dollar soar in winter 2017?

The US Treasury intends to sharply increase the issuance of government debt in the fourth quarter, according to the forecast plan published by the US Treasury Loan Committee.

From October to December, the American budget plans to raise a total of $501 billion on the market with the help of government bonds.

According to the plan, placements in a record volume for 9 years will begin in the second half of October. The Treasury intends to collect almost a quarter of the total amount - $114 billion - in the first two weeks, until October 31. In November, the issue volume will be $243 billion.

The final quarterly figure - more than half a trillion dollars - is “simply mind-blowing,” says analyst Alexey Mikheev: more was raised per quarter only in 2009 financial year, during a crisis.

The result of these operations will be “the withdrawal of a colossal amount of dollar liquidity from the market,” which will cause “a colossal growth of the dollar,” says Mikheev.

Demand for the US currency will come from banks - the Fed's primary dealers: they are the main buyers of US debt securities at auctions, and also control 73% of the forex market.

"These are such largest banks like Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Citigroup, Goldman, Sachs & Co., Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, UBS Securities, etc.,” Mikheev lists.

Euro-dollar parity is real and can be achieved in the next six months.

The ECB's trade-weighted euro index fell to its lowest levels since March this year, mainly due to depreciation single currency against the dollar by 4% after the US elections. Investors tuned in to the fiscal support and economic stimulus promised by Trump and bought the dollar across the market. But now Europe can also contribute to the weakening of the euro, with some analysts believing that the euro/dollar may reach a level in the near future.

How big are the European political and financial risks for the euro? Is the forecast of parity between the euro and the dollar in the near future realistic or will it remain only on paper? When asked by Fotrader magazine, Alexander Kuptsikevich, an analyst at FxPro, commented.

Parity is quite possible

- Euro-dollar parity is real and can be achieved in the next six months. However, talk about parity is not new; back in 2015, the EURUSD pair was twice at the same levels as now, but rebounded to the area above 1.14.

The rebound in the pair was helped by the Federal Reserve revising its initially very hawkish plans for four rate hikes in 2016. These expectations turned out to be even stronger than the expansion and extension of the QE program from the ECB, without causing a weakening of the single currency. Quite the contrary, it was a nervous time for the global economy and markets used the euro as a safe haven currency, buying bonds from the region's strong economies. There was a similar movement in the USDJPY pair, so the euro in this case should not be considered as any special safe haven.

Euro to dollar parity will follow immediately after 1.05

But now the probability of a further decline below 1.05 has noticeably increased, after which the next significant goal will be parity due to several factors.

First, the markets clearly felt strong resistance, observed in the pair as it approached 1.15. The EURUSD collapse during the 2014/15 dollar rally started from levels at 1.3950 and fizzled out just below 1.0500 simply because there was no one left to sell euros for dollars. A period was required to consolidate and take root the idea of ​​the couple moving to another psychological level from “obviously more expensive” to “slightly more expensive” than the dollar.

The euro's fluctuations throughout this correction period fit in quite well with a correction near 76.4% of the initial movement and strong (but temporary support) at 100% of the first impulse. Further tracking of Fibonacci suggests the possibility of the pair collapsing to 0.83. This is a very distant goal, and seems feasible only under conditions of very serious suffering in the eurozone in comparison with the prosperity of the United States.

What could serve as a driver for a new round of decline in the near future?

First of all, of course, the change in political sentiment in Europe. From country to country, technocrats are losing ground to populists. And the last ones in this moment tend to blame free trade and common institutions in the absence of the prosperity of their countries.

The single currency's plunge below parity could be a long-term excellent time to buy euros for dollars

Next year there will be elections in France, Germany, and probably in Italy. This largest countries the eurozone, and the example of Britain has been inspiring for the centrifugal forces in these countries. Fears of a change in the political agenda alone will be enough to provoke losses of 7-12% in the single currency.

The most obvious and predictable driver of the euro’s decline is monetary policy divergence. The ECB is still pressing on the monetary easing pedal. The eurozone economy demonstrated resistance to external shocks in 2016, but is very far from the indicators that would force the ECB to curtail incentives.

Inflation has embarked on a growth path, but is unlikely to reach its target even in 2017. At the same time, high unemployment remains at 9.6%, and retail sales grow almost imperceptibly. One of the region’s few growth points is foreign trade. The balance sheet surplus increased significantly in last years thanks to the weakening euro. From developed countries only the eurozone manages to use the weakness of the currency to its advantage, and Britain and the United States were never able to fundamentally turn the deficit into a surplus - they simply no longer had the production capacity. So the euro's weakness is beneficial economic activity in the region, although it does not cause a noticeable surge in inflation. This allows the ECB to exploit such “side effects” of loose monetary policy.

Conclusions in favor of the fall of the euro

My arguments in favor of lowering the euro are clear - the single currency will remain under pressure in the near future. Now I’ll say a few words about the longer term.

The eurozone is still on the path of growth (unemployment is falling, inflation is rising), so already in 2017, the ECB, in my opinion, will announce the end of QE, and when inflation reaches 2%, there will be talk of an increase. This could happen by the beginning of 2018.

The single currency also receives demand due to the growth of the economies of EU countries and the growing surplus foreign trade. We should also not forget that the ECB has historically pursued a tighter monetary policy than the Fed, due to the genetic fear of inflation by the “German bloc”. So I believe the single currency's descent below parity could be a long-term excellent time to buy euros for dollars. True, political risks may cause EURUSD to plunge straight to 0.83, as they did not spare earlier in 2016 British pound. However, the euro will be higher in three years, probably in seven years, than it is now.

Changing the dynamics of currency ratios is a pressing issue that concerns not only economists throughout the country, but also ordinary people. In conditions developing crisis The ruble exchange rate is not able to demonstrate stability. The indicator on the exchanges is constantly jumping, people engaged in business and trade are forced to constantly monitor fresh changes online, analyze the chart, make assumptions.

Permanent uncertainty cannot but affect the mood of society. Worries and constant doubts do not allow you to be confident in the near future and make solid plans. One of the available options is to turn to the opinions of experts who are able to give an objective assessment of the situation in the economy at a professional level and predict further movement exchange rate.

The current situation in the financial market reflects one of the worst scenarios. Half of the year has passed, marking its end with a significant decline in the position of the domestic currency. The collapse of the ruble was not unexpected for analysts, since something similar was expected by the fall of this year. However, events began to develop rapidly, resulting in premature significant changes on the stock exchanges. Such a turn does not mean that it is impossible to make plans regarding currency fluctuations for the rest of the year. The position of the Old World currency in relation to the ruble has similar trends to the position of its American counterpart, but does not demonstrate transparency and evidence.

The current exchange rate today varies around 74 rubles per euro. The ratio of the latter to the dollar is 1.11. But parity is not expected. A slight fall in the euro (1%) was caused by a statement by the head of the European Central Bank about negative expectations regarding economic growth in EU countries.

What are the influencing factors?

The ruble continues to lose its position and sets new record levels, the latter in no way can evoke positive emotions. Factors that influence the foreign exchange ratio in Russia are as follows:

• the cost of gas and oil (at the beginning of the year, profits from energy sales on the Chinese market were able to at least somehow bring stability to the economy);
• investment policy(at the beginning of the year it was expected to receive benefits from investments in the development of the Crimean region and Asian regions);
• Ukrainian crisis (the inability to peacefully resolve the conflict between neighboring countries leads to the impossibility of strengthening national course);
• sanctions policy (organizing exports to Asian countries, reducing import supplies and developing own production in conditions of restrictions from the West, experts consider it a natural way out);
• the situation in Europe (events in Greece, the direction of German economic influence).

Analysis of prospects.

Expert forecasts, including for the fall, indicate that the eurozone currency will continue to strengthen its position, this will lead to an increase in the indicator from 76 to 88 rubles in October, then to a transition beyond 90 (in December). This phenomenon is associated not so much with the strengthening of the European currency, but with the weakening of the national currency, which will continue in the near future. The following factors contribute to this:

• Chinese stock market crash;
• bilateral expansion of sanctions (initiation of measures from both the European and Russian sides);
• fulfillment of external obligations for financial sector, announced by the chief economist for the CIS and Russia Oleg Kuzmin, the amount exceeds $14 billion (planned for September);
• the impossibility of stabilizing the situation in Ukraine;
• exemption from Iran's sanctions restrictions (the likely oil exports from this country in November could bring the market down once again).

The Greek crisis has passed its climax, therefore, today, tomorrow, and beyond, the amplitude between the euro and dollar rates will continue. This opinion is all the more true considering that in the coming days the United States plans to raise key rate financial reserve. This will significantly strengthen the position of American banks, but will lead to a wave of devaluation in relation to other currencies.

If previously devaluation turned out to be an effective measure to maintain national economy, then in the present conditions it has ceased to be relevant. This has a lot to do with the fact that almost everything developed economies highly dependent on large businesses, which include the real estate market, trade relations and manufacturing. All that devaluation leads to today is progressive inflation, an outflow of funds, a decrease in consumer opportunities and a decrease in investments. An economic downturn is the most likely future news.

Sberbank experts predict an increase in the foreign exchange rate due to another weakening of the ruble’s position, also provoked by a decrease in interest rates, as ordered by the Central Bank. In the current situation, in relation to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev outlined the unacceptability of hasty decisions and the lack of need for them.

Position of the euro in global terms.

Analytics from experts on the RBC TV channel are inclined to note the prospect of a decline in the position of the euro relative to the American currency. This is because investors are trying to avoid investing in euros due to the unstable state banking system and the general lackluster development of Europe's economic sectors. Against this background, the dollar seems to be the most attractive option for investment, especially if the project is long-term.

Europe's dependence on the economies of developing countries also has a negative impact on the economy of the Old World. The Europeans themselves tend to blame the United States for this, not wanting to bear objective responsibility for what is happening. The prospects for a further weakening of the euro on world exchanges and in banks are confirmed by the escalation of the crisis in countries belonging to the European Union, as well as the presence of economic conflicts in the central and eastern parts of Europe.

At the same time, not a single expert takes it upon himself to make a fresh and accurate forecast, but the absolute majority predicts a strengthening of the euro against the backdrop of a weakening ruble. Attempts to create plans and strategies for the next year are considered completely irrational, since the world is experiencing instability in all respects: both in terms of geopolitics and in relation to numerous economic factors, affecting currency correlations.