What will happen to the ruble August. What will happen to the ruble in August - we are waiting for an unpleasant surprise. What can support the ruble

From August 7 to September 6, the Central Bank was supposed to buy a currency in a record volume - by 383.2 billion rubles, but managed to buy only 96 billion rubles. Against the background of volatility in the foreign exchange market from August 9, the regulator did not buy a currency within six shopping days, as in April. On August 17, the procurement resumed, but the return of the Bank of Russia to the foreign exchange market coincided with the weakening of the ruble exchange rate caused by the expectation of the new wave of American sanctions, and pushed the Russian currency down. Moreover, the Central Bank has increased the daily purchases of the currency in the market due to the weekly "idle time" to execute the procurement plan.

At the auction on August 22, the dollar rate exceeded 68 rubles, the euro - 79 rubles. On August 23, the trend continued: the dollar rate rose to the maximum values \u200b\u200bto the ruble from April 2016, reaching 69 rubles.

From the regulator, care from the market is an absolutely adequate and justified step, the director of the analytical department "Loco-Invest" Kirill Tremasov: the ruble under the current macroeconomic situation is cut off from its fundamental value, the dollar is unnecessarily expensive. "There is no need to spend budget money, buying a markedly revalued asset," he noted. According to Tremasov, the Central Bank was afraid of repetition of the situation of 2014. "He struggled for the" grieving "of inflation and inflation expectations near Target, and here, due to the speculative devaluation of the ruble, everything at one point can go to the Nammark," said the expert.

When the Central Bank returned to the market, it was the pressure on the ruble, and now the Bank of Russia, in fact, is forced to recognize the fact that the negative impact on the ruble exchange rate mainly has the presence of the Central Bank in the market, says the analyst of the FINAM GC. Alexey Korenev.

To blame whether the regulator is to blame

If the Central Bank had not returned to the purchases of the currency on August 17, the situation with the ruble course would be different, the analysts respondents were confident. Break in procurement in the middle of August allowed the ruble to return to a fairly comfortable corridor (65-68 rubles per dollar), reminds Korenev. "If the purchases did not resume, we would observe the stabilization of the Russian currency at the level of 67 rubles," Raiffeisenbank analyst Denis is gone.

According to the analyst "Opening a broker" Timur Nigmatullina, a panic in the foreign exchange market in recent days was actually man-made - to increase the ruble interventions of the Central Bank the Ministry of Finance from the placement of OFS. Oil on the market costs $ 74 per barrel, but due to the actions of the Central Bank, the course corresponds to oil at a price of $ 40 per barrel, it indicates.

It will strengthen the ruble

Now the principal moment is that the Central Bank not only stopped procurement, but also warned that it would not be carried out until the end of September, which is an important verbal intervention, indicates Korenev. These promises were enough to stop panic on the market and stop the uncontrolled fall of the ruble. The market believed that the Central Bank will make a long break in procurement, which will remove some psychological pressure from members of the trading, analyst believes.

If, related to the poisoning of the squeak, will be adopted in November, it will be a strong fall of the ruble (above 70 rubles per dollar). If the sanctions are soft enough, then the Central Bank should have enough strength to keep the course of the Russian currency at a sufficiently comfortable level, it suggests Korenev. At the same time, according to the expert, it is impossible to exclude such a situation in which in the case of sharp fluctuations in the CB's foreign exchange market will be forced to sell dollars.

The impact on the ruble decision of the Central Bank will be short-term, considers the investment strategist "BCS Premier" Alexander Bakhtin. The measure of the regulator is rather not support, but the exclusion of a factor that would aggravate the already intense atmosphere in the market. The future of the ruble will primarily depend on the situation in the oil market and the further development of sanction rhetoric, much will also depend on the impact of the Fed policy on the dollar and the threat of trade wars between the United States and China, the analyst argues. By the end of the year, you can expect a course in the corridor of 65-70 rubles. For the dollar, he predicts.

The scenario that can be considered basic (the adoption of US sanctions for the scripts, the rejection of the more stringent Senate Package of sanctions, the preservation of the unchanged budget rule and the stabilization of the situation in emerging markets), suggests that by the end of the year the dollar will be in the region of 61.8 rubles, optimistic Nigmatulline. With the negative development of events (the crisis in Turkey, the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the fall in oil prices, the adoption of sanctions of the US Senate) Dollar can reach 70.4 rubles. A complete refusal of purchasing currency within the budget rule by the end of the year could strengthen the ruble to 57-58 rubles. For a dollar, but such a scenario is unlikely, an expert is arguing.

Fate of the budget rule

According to the norms approved by the Government in December 2017, monthly currency purchase volumes are established by the Ministry of Finance by the formula and are equal to additional oil and gas revenues of the budget, that is, income from excess of actual oil prices over the base price of $ 40.8 per barrel. Purchase currency, which is then sent to the National Welfare Fund (FNB), is engaged in the Central Bank.

The Central Bank by law is an independent institution, and one of its independent purposes is "protection and providing the ruble sustainability". The Bank of Russia noted that his approaches to monetary policy do not change in the conditions of the budget rule. In particular, the Central Bank retained the ability to determine the amount of day operations for the purchase of currency "in order to maintain financial stability."

"The decision of the Central Bank (about the moratorium on the procurement. - RBC) It will not affect the implementation of the currency procurement plan within the budget rule. At the same time, the currency sources for replenishing the account of the Federal Treasury of the Central Bank determines independently, "on Thursday, the representative of the Ministry of Finance. The rules of the government for settlements in connection with additional oil and gas income is not specified, where the Ministry of Finance should procure the currency on a budgetary rule, that is, it can be purchased both in the domestic market and directly at the Central Bank. In 2014, the Treasury directly bought foreign currency for the Central Bank for the reserve funds that existed then.

According to Denis Raiffeisenbank analyst, Denis is glowing, the chances of performing an annual currency purchases plan are now small. "By the end of September, the situation will not be particularly changed: the elections in the US Congress will be only in November, therefore the risk of new sanctions remains. Plus, the Fed rate will continue to rise, stimulating capital outflow from emerging markets, in particular from Russia. In this situation, the Central Bank will be difficult to resume the purchase of currency without increasing risks for financial stability, "explained to go through.

The implementation of a currency procurement plan by the end of the year will depend on the market situation, says the chief economist in Russia and the CIS Bank of America Merrill Lynch Vladimir Osakovsky. But even if the plan for procurement on the market will not be fulfilled, then this will not have any serious consequences - the Central Bank has the opportunity to sell the Ministry of Finance to the currency directly. Fear of non-compliance with the currency purchases plan is not worth it, the head of operations in the monetary and currency market of Metallinevest Bank Sergey Romanchuk agrees. "Nothing terrible if the Central Bank does not replenish the currency reserve, because now it is not a primary task. It is much more important to remove the excess volatility of the ruble, "he concludes.

Commenting on the decision to leave a key rate at a constant level of 7.25%, adopted by the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation following the meeting on Friday, July 27, Director of Analytics Kibe Bank "Opening" Dmitry Harlampiev notes that it coincided with expectations of experts and forecasts of all respondents Bloomberg market participants (100% of respondents). In the official commentary, the regulator pointed to the preservation of low actual inflation, the formation of a trend for its return to the target level of 4% and temporary exceeding target, but already in 2019.

Dmitry Harlampiev points out explicit signs that the central bank, taking into account the changed conditions, transfers expectations on the transition to a neutral monetary policy for 2019 (previously such a transition was predicted for 2018), without specifying in this case to reduce the potential or target range of neutral rates.

"According to the latest available data, the neutral range of the real interest rate is 2-3%, while not being a constant, - writes in its comments by the Opening Cyb Bank analyst analyst. - The deflationary factor at the present stage is almost zero change in prices for food products, while in the case of a non-food market there is a moderate acceleration of prices, primarily in the segment of petroleum products. Own prediction regarding the dynamics of CPI and GDP for the current year of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation preserves in a constant form - 3.5-4.0% and 1.5-2.0%, respectively. "

Meanwhile, the market is given obvious intelligence risks associated primarily with uncertainty about the scale of secondary effects from accepted tax solutions (raising VAT rates by 2% from the beginning of 2019). It tries inflationary expectations - in June, this indicator rose by +1.2 percentage points. - up to + 9.8%. There are also risks in the context of external factors - the growth of profitable markets, topical geopolitical risks, the total growth of volatility in the global financial market.

"Taking into account the developing conditions," expert summarizes, "we tend to the fact that the regulator will refrain from reducing the key bet in 2018 and the first" step "is possible not earlier than the end of the 1st quarter of 2019."

Positive Week for the Russian ruble, which may reach 8% by the end of the year

The lead analyst "Opening a broker" Andrei Kochetkov believes that the Russian market has spent a positive week, but again it may be under pressure from political news, as the Russian issue in the pre-election rhetoric continues to use in the US Congress.

As for the external attributive conditions, the kochetkov draws attention to the growth of the American economy, which accelerated to 4.1% of growth in the second quarter, which fully justifies the rather rigid position of the Fed. This week, the American regulator will hold a regular meeting, which is not waiting for changes in monetary policy, but will very carefully study the final statement.

Japan will begin a week with the publication of retail statistics. The Eurozone will receive a report on business and consumer confidence, as well as indices of business climate and economic expectations. In the US, data will come out on unfinished real estate transactions. In Russia, "LUKOIL" will close the registry for participation in the erect. TGK-1 will report on the RAS for the II quarter and half of the year, as well as RusHydro.

Information that is able to interest the cities and regions of Russia, the replenishment of the budgets of which depend on the revenues of metallurgical companies: the prices for reinforcement steel in China have reached a maximum of five and a half years on concerns of reducing production. The PRC authorities continue to strengthen the struggle with air pollution, which involves a significant reduction in dirty industries in a number of key cities, including Tangshan and Changjow.

Kochetkov draws attention that the Russian market was able to strengthen its position last week. However, the activity of buyers was held back by the regular statements from Washington, where they continue to play the Russian card in the pre-election company of the current year. The head of the International Committee of the Senate even allowed the adoption of new restrictions before intermediate elections to Congress in early November. "If it were not for the risks of new troubles from the United States, the Mosbier's index could already be higher than the mark of 2400 p. - Expert believes - and the ruble leave the range of 61.5-64.5 to the side of 60 rubles per dollar. At the beginning of August, the ruble may be under low pressure due to seasonal factors. In particular, we are talking about a high tourist season, as well as about the conversion of dividends by non-residents. On the other hand, the consolidation regime is most likely, both in the stock market and the currency session. "

Timur Nigmatullin colleague indicates that on Monday, the US dollar on the Moscow Stock Exchange loses about 0.1% and is traded near the mark of 62.8 rubles, while in the center of the USD formed after the April sanctions of the US "Bokovik" with the oscillation range within 60-65 rubles .

"Meanwhile, in our opinion, the current price levels are significantly overestimated by the fundamentally reasonable meanings due to aspects of the budget policy of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the ratio of interest rates of central banks of the two countries and the total macroeconomic conjuncture," the expert is sure.

Analysts "Opening a Broker" predict the gradual restoration of the balance in the foreign exchange market previously observed during the 2017 and 1st quarter of 2018. The direct effect of the imposed sanctions is objectively insignificant across the Russian economy, the risk of new harsh sanctions, incl. against the Russian public debt, negligible small. As the rhetoric of the US political authorities is weakened (in fact, we are already observing this process) non-residents will return to the ruble public debt, which will create prerequisites for the transition of the dollar / ruble to the usual range of fluctuations 55.5-61. Our basic forecast for the end of 2018 is 57.7 rubles per dollar.

Bank "Opening" comes with customers to contact

The Bank "Opening" became the first bank that offered its customers a new information informing service - the Messenger of the Social Network VKontakte (VC), the Press Service of the Bank reports. Now customers will be able to not only receive information about all operations on their card account in the channel usual for them, but also ask their questions to the Bank's experts and get an answer online.

In addition to the VK messenger, in the "Opening" will also continue to be informed via SMS, Viber and Push notifications in a mobile bank. The ability to connect to VC will be all customers who have received the appropriate notification in the messenger. At the same time, if there is no connection to the Internet, operation notifications will continue to come across SMS.

"I would like to emphasize that the confidentiality of information transmitted through the messenger will be saved. VKontakte is one of the most popular social networks among our customers, and we want to provide users with the opportunity to communicate with their bank where it is more convenient, "said Alexey Pevgov, director in the direction of the Discovery Bank projects.

Prepared Sergey Avdeev
Plane

Barclays analysts made an alarming outlook. There is a chance, very soon the ruble will sound healthy to the dollar and the euro. We learned the secret details of the new US sanctions against Russia - read below (valued until the end of the page) that everyone awaits us. This is where the real reversal of events is very interesting!

The new bill, providing for the introduction of sanctions against Russia, may affect some of the largest banks of the country, which potentially makes more damage than any other actions of Americans.

"The most radical version of sanctions on transactions with Russian banks, in which all state banks are sanctioned will have significant consequences for the entire Russian economy, which may be even more painful than government debt tightening measures," said Lisa Yermolenko, economist Barclays Capital in London. "These offers are currently being discussed and will probably need to clarify them, given the potential consequences."

One of the provisions of the project contains a call to the United States "prohibit all transactions in all the interest of ownership of one or several Russian financial institutions. It lists some of the largest creditors of the country: Sberbank, VTB Bank, Gazprombank, Promsvyazbank, Rosselkhozbank and Vnesheconombank. The list also includes a bank of Moscow, which was combined with VTB in 2016, and Vnesheconombank is mentioned twice in the text without explaining the reasons.

Draft

The requirement of the proposal for sanctions on the issues of the new sovereign debt of Russia attracted the attention of investors, although the US Department of Finance in February opened against this idea, warning that it would have a wide market effect.

With President Donald Trump, calling for more close relations with Russia, the prospects for passing the draft law remain uncertain. Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress called for tough measures against Russia after last year's summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Of course, this is just a project version, and it is quite reasonable that hawks in Congress will begin negotiations on the new legislation with the most severe conditions after the recent meeting of Presidents and Putin," said Yermolenko. "But even in this document it is clear that you need to go further than before to inflict damage to Russia."

The last round of US sanctions, introduced in April, weakened the ruble and lowered the prices for public debt. This time in August can be even worse. The Bank of Russia accelerated preparations for more stringent measures by the United States after the introduction of these restrictions. In the following months, Russia has sharply reduced its stocks of US treasury securities.

But with all this, Americans are afraid to drive Russia into corner, because then it may be too late. Putin reacts very restraint to all attacks, but patience is not infinite. Sooner or later, Americans will have to put in place, and it will already hurt for the United States. None arsenal and newest weapons of Russia have canceled, they are fully prepared for action. Americans understand this.

The Russian currency collapsed to a two-year minimum. The official dollar rate established by the Central Bank for tomorrow, grew by 2.69 rubles, to 66.28 rubles. The euro went up even stronger - by 3 rubles, to 76.82 rubles. National currency is cheaper due to the threat of new sanctions by the United States.

What is Washington expands sanctions?

The regular package of anti-Russian sanctions states are injected for the so-called. "Case of Skiplays" - despite the fact that no evidence of Moscow's involvement in the poisoning of the citizens of Great Britain Sergey and Yulia Skriplabia is not, the United States accuses Russia in violating international law. New sanctions imply restrictions on deliveries in the Russian Federation of dual-use products. They should enter into force on August 22.

But that's not all. Washington gives Moscow a three-month term for the fact that our country has proven that it will not be used by chemical weapons. In addition, Russia must start UN Observers to their chemical enterprises. Otherwise, the states will introduce more stringent sanctions. In particular, Congressmen propose to block American accounts and assets of a number of Russian banks with stateships (Sberbank, VTB, Vnesheconombank, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, Promsvyazbank). In addition, Americans may prohibit their investors to invest in Russian debt obligations (OFZ - federal loan bonds).

"The" Case of Scriptles "excites the minds of American politicians, and they again took up pressure attempts to Russia. New sanctions are a bright example. In order for us to life with honey, it is necessary to all Russians and, first of all, to harm the Russian business. For this there are sanctions. And they will certainly work, and I have no doubt that there will be more new sanctions against our country. No wonder in the US National Security doctrine, such countries as Iran, China, DPRK and Russia are named the main enemies and threats of American security and democracy, "says head of the Analytical Department of the International Financial Center Roman Blinov.

Why does the ruble get cheaper?

The current weakening of the ruble partly is associated with the panic sales of Russian bonds of the federal loan, which are selling, above all, Western investors noted analyst of the investment company "Freeda Finance" Valery Bezuglov.

In addition, on the eve of more than 3%, oil quotes fell. Brent's raw materials (from its cost depends on the price of the Russian Urals grade) decreased by 3.71%, to $ 71.88 per barrel. The WTI grade oil fell by 3.99%, to 66.41 dollars per barrel.

What will happen to the ruble on?

The surveyed AIF.RU experts admit that in the future the Russian currency will continue to weaken. According to expert "BCS Broker" Ivan Kopeikina,the dollar can strengthen up to 67 rubles, euro - up to 78 rubles.

"It is necessary to understand that the ruble is the currency of the developing country, and it moves from devaluation to devaluation, with periods of five to ten years, and the reason for these devaluation is the weakness of the raw material economy, in the outflow of capital based on internal policies, in low performance Labor and the dominance of state and state-owned companies in the economy.

And in the conditions of sanctions, all these conditions are additionally aggravated, as the economy is forced to calculate almost exclusively on their own forces, its own limited financial resources. I believe that by September the ruble, most likely, will be released in a new range to the dollar, 65-70 rubles, and the only thing that will restrain it - this is a suspension of the currency purchases, which the Central Bank announced, "adds director of the Expert Group Veta Dmitry Jarsky.

The expectations of new sanctions against the Russian State Dome, against Russian companies, the exit of foreign investors (Carrie traders) from ruble assets can be pushing downwards.

On the ruble will be crushed and failed down oil, which cannot be held above 75 dollars per barrel Brent and will slide down 70 dollars per barrel.

"We will add to this a panic among the population, which will definitely raise the demand for cash currency, and even more devalue the ruble," explains the jar.

What can support the ruble?

Maintain the ruble will be two things - high prices for oil and the Russian Central Bank, Kopeykin says.

"Bank of Russia, for example, may, as in 2014, use the tools of the so-called" fine tuning on the absorption of ruble liquidity "or at all raise the rate at the near meeting," the expert indicates.

In turn, Valery Bezuglov believes that most pessimism in the foreign exchange market has already occurred. "Following the results of yesterday, the bonds demonstrated the growth rate of 10-20 basis items practically across the entire curve against the background of exacerbation of geopolitics. Most of the pessimism in the foreign exchange market has already occurred, since all the information on potential new sanctions has been disclosed by the investment community. However, by the end of the week, high jumps in the foreign exchange market will be saved. On the horizon of two weeks, the dollar will be sold at 65-66 rubles, "he summarizes.

In the United States, a bill containing a number of new anti-Russian measures was introduced to the Upper Chamber of Congress. This, as well as pessimism in the oil market, explains a sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate. On the eve of Forex, the dollar rate to the ruble rose to its maximum from November 2016 - 65.09 rubles. In the morning on Friday, August 9, the ruble trades on the Moscow Stock Exchange in the range from 66.0 to 66.5 rubles / dollars.

As the RIA Novosti Agency reminds, in finding new reasons to enhance the pressure on Moscow, US senators decided to play a "British map": the so-called "scripty case", in whose poisoning in March, London is unreasonably accused of the Russian state. The states fell on the side of their ally, Slavs from the country 60 Russian diplomats, but formally did not conclusions about the involvement of the Russian Federation to poison.

It is possible that this position will turn into a new package of anti-Russian sanctions, which, in the event of a law, will be divided into two stages. The first part involves a complete ban on exports to Russia electronic devices and components of a double value. The second packet will be introduced into force in three months, "if Russia does not give guarantees not to apply chime buildings in the future." At the same time, it should be recalled that the Russian Federation is the most stringent executor of agreements on its non-use and non-proliferation. Restrictive measures may include a decrease in the level of diplomatic relations, a ban on flights to the United States of the Russian airline Aeroflot and almost complete cessation of American exports.

As for the oil, the raw material segment was put on the Russian statistics in the United States, where, last week, oil reserves dropped by 1.4 million barrels when analysting analysts at 2.8 million barrels. As a result, the cost of Brent fell to $ 71.8 per barrel, and the exchange rate is up to 65.55 rubles per dollar and 76.13 for the euro.

Attack on the ruble

It is clear, the expert of the International Financial Center Vladimir Rozhankovsky is indicated that everyone is now waiting for devaluation. But yesterday yesterday with the ruble is a staged trick. "I'm on the market - since 1996, for the ruble I follow since 1991. It is able to distinguish a fundamental attenuation from the adjusted attack, "says the analyst. - In the morning in the region of 11: 00-12: 00 At the same time an article appeared in RBC about the ultimatum of American senators Putin: with new sanctions, it is possible to postpone if Russia promises more firmly to fulfill the Convention on the Non-Proliferation of Chemical Weapons (there was a "creiplery case" and Syria) . But already at 19:00 Moscow time it was announced that the United States implies sanctions against Russia because of the "scripold case", which is devoid of logic. Finally, at about the same time, information appeared that Senator Rand Paul brought a letter from Donald Trump to Moscow. Obviously (although it is not yet unusable) that the aforementioned absurdity is connected with the fact that there was a leak of information that the letter of Trump Putin is already on his table, so American politicians had to break the whole logical chain, all the plans. "

What are the forecasts regarding the ruble restoration? Favorable, I am sure Vladimir Rozhankovsky. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has a good tested medium-term mechanism - ruble-dollar swaps. Today, according to the analyst, in no case cannot begin stock exchange currency trading without careful preliminary selection of applications for the purchase of currency. In such applications, the purpose of the purchase of currency should be clearly spelled out and the purpose of purchasing currency is, especially in the amount of over 250-300 million dollars.

Difficulties and adaptation

As for specifically American sanctions, then the leading analyst Forex Optimum Ivan Kapustyansky is confident, the new package is formal, as well as the reason itself - an attempt to poison in London of ex-colonel GRU Sergei Skripal. Double-use goods will fall under the ban. In fact, such goods were already prohibited for sale in Russia by previously introduced sanctions, but there are some positions that will be added, for example, avionics. However, in 2015, Russian aviation producers talked about the start of import substitution in this area.

The second package of sanctions is tougher, but again not deadly, the expert is sure. Diplomatic relations between the Russian Federation and the United States are already at a minimum, while Russians adapted and beneficially receive visas in the CIS countries. The abolition of direct flights Aeroflot will also not affect citizens significantly. You can safely get through Europe to the United States.

The toughest measures concern the ban to invest in the public debt of Russia and the prohibition of transactions in US dollars by state banks of the Russian Federation. In fact, this is the scenario of Iran. In this regard, Ivan Kapustyansky considers, of course, transaction costs will grow sharply and Russia will hold settlements in the euro, but in general the situation is also not fatal. At the same time, the United States will not be able to fully isolate the Russian Federation. Since really has limited pressure levers.

The volatility in the foreign exchange market of the Russian Federation will persist, analyst believes. At the same time, the "aromaticization" of sanctions will continue, the ruble will be under pressure. However, current sales are still panic. Against this background, the dollar / ruble pair can reach 70, and the euro / ruble to 80 rubles is predicted in Forex Optimum Ivan. However, the same strong increase in the future can also be leveled by a drop back. By the end of the year, at the current situation, the ruble will remain under pressure, especially if oil starts to decline. It is possible that by the end of the year, the dollar / ruble will reach 68-70 and stabilizes, and the euro / ruble will suit the range of 78-80 rubles.