Whether to buy dollars now in March. Five reasons to buy the dollar right now. Alternative point of view

The period of a relatively strong ruble continues in the foreign exchange market. A number of factors keep it afloat, contrary to previous gloomy forecasts by analysts. Forecasts, as usual, are guided by the main “friend” of the Russian currency - oil. They have become more optimistic lately. Does this mean that the ruble has strengthened for a long time? Or do you need to urgently stock up on currency for your summer vacation?

With oil up

Experts have been talking about the overvaluation of the ruble for a long time. The ruble is destined to fall - this is evidenced by the unfavorable situation for Russia in the commodity market (oil is growing now, but it has become much cheaper over the past two years), and sanctions, and economic cycles. But forecasts are meaningless without specifying more or less specific dates.

On the eve of the April summit in Doha, it seemed obvious that if the negotiations failed, the ruble would seriously sink. After all, it was no less than a joint freeze of oil production by OPEC countries and exporters not part of the cartel. After the failure of the negotiations, the Russian currency really weakened somewhat (from 66.5 to 68 rubles per dollar), but then grew sharply (to 62.5 rubles per dollar). Over the next month, the rate moved abruptly, then dropping below 64 rubles, to rising above 66 rubles.

Of course, there were reasons for the relatively high ruble exchange rate. And mostly unforeseen: forest fires in the Canadian province of Alberta, where oil production facilities are located, terrorist attacks on oil pipelines in Nigeria, and a decrease in oil reserves in the United States. In addition, a period of tax payments has begun in Russia, when companies sell foreign currency earnings. All this worked as temporary factors for the strengthening of the ruble. Although the strong ruble is still unprofitable for the main exporters and the budget.

But now, when people have already got used to the exchange rate in the region of 65-66 rubles per dollar, statements have been made in support of the Russian currency.

First, Energy Minister Alexander Novak on May 29 stabilization of the oil market next year. “The rebalancing of supply and demand in the oil market has begun, and by the end of 2017 we will see the end of the cycle and the recovery of the market,” he said.

According to the minister's forecast, in the second, third and fourth quarters, oil supply will be below the 2015 level. And only by the end of 2016, we will again reach this level. Novak allowed a short-term rebound of quotations down, but the overall dynamics is aimed at growth.

In general, the official noted, his department did not change the forecasts for the oil price, since there is no reason for this. That is, in 2016 - $ 40-50 per barrel, in 2017 - $ 60-65.

The next day, May 30, the head of Sberbank, German Gref, said that with an oil price of $ 45 (which corresponds to the average annual forecast of a number of experts), Russia's GDP will show a slight increase next year. Moreover, the head of the country's largest bank expects that by 2020 the oil price could reach $ 60 per barrel, and even $ 80 by 2024.

All this promises a bright future for the ruble. Nevertheless, a number of negative factors may affect the Russian currency in the short term. And this must be borne in mind.

Trend is changing

Mikhail Krylov, director of the analytical department of the investment company Golden Hills-Capital AM, believes that now is a good time to buy foreign currency. But very soon the balance of power in the market will change in no way in favor of the ruble. There are a number of reasons for this.

“Firstly, on June 2, a meeting of OPEC representatives will take place, at which the issue of reducing or freezing production will once again be decided. But, most likely, oil exporters will not come to an agreement, ”he says. The expert explained that everything depends on the position of Saudi Arabia, and she is afraid to take any steps to limit production without coordination with the main competitor - Iran.

It would seem that the situation is similar to the one that developed in April at the summit in the Qatari capital of Doha. The only difference is that the upcoming meeting in June will not be attended by Russia and other countries that are not part of the cartel. However, the result, according to the analyst, will be different for the Russian currency. “A sharp revaluation of raw materials after the OPEC meeting could bring down the rate to 73-75 rubles per dollar,” Krylov said.

In favor of the dollar and the expected increase in the US Federal Reserve rate at the next meeting on June 14-15. “This will lead to sales in high-risk assets, which include oil and the ruble. The strengthening of the dollar on the world currency market will additionally affect, ”says Bogdan Zvarich, an analyst at the Finam group of companies. In his opinion, the ruble will weaken in June. It is possible that the dollar will rise in price to 70 rubles, the euro - to 76-77.

Mikhail Krylov also points to a factor that can support the Russian currency. “Targeting inflation by the rate of the national currency leads to its improvement in terms of purchasing power parity, and this, in turn, increases the rate,” the expert explains. In other words, a decrease in price growth contributes to the fact that market participants are pledged to a more or less stable situation in the economy. And here a lot depends on the policy of the Central Bank in relation to rates. “If the rate does not decrease for about six months, we can see the rate at 50 rubles per dollar by the end of this period,” Krylov noted, making a reservation that the Central Bank will most likely reduce the key rate in accordance with its own promises.

Better not to twitch

Despite the increased interest of Russian citizens in the exchange rate, it is still worth understanding that all these fluctuations in quotations are not so important. Anyone who is going on vacation abroad will buy currency anyway. With the volumes that are usually required on vacation, the exchange rate difference, even by one percentage point, is not critical (although, of course, it is more pleasant to buy currency at a good rate).

Those who are counting on a successful speculative operation should remember that the exchange rate, as well as oil prices, can change under the influence of completely unexpected factors that are impossible or very difficult to calculate in advance. Of course, we are talking about those who have a brokerage account and they perform operations with currency on the exchange, and not about those who change cash at an exchange office - you will lose more on the difference between the purchase and sale prices than you will gain from the rate change. And we must not forget that the small speculator usually loses.

Investing in foreign currencies is a common way of making money among Russians. In order to increase your capital in this way, you do not need a lot of knowledge and money. It is enough just to exchange rubles for dollars and wait for the prices of the American currency to rise in order to exchange them at a favorable rate.

Experts believe that this way of "earning money" is unlikely to justify itself this year. Some experts are confident that in the long term, the Russian economy will collapse, and this will lead to a rise in the dollar's price.

Government data indicate the opposite situation: the Russian economy is gradually recovering from the crisis. The opinion about whether it is worth buying dollars this year remains controversial among the expert community.

There are a number of advantages and disadvantages to investing in the dollar. Among Russians, this way of earning money has gained the greatest popularity, since the ruble is often steadily weakening against the dollar.

At the beginning of 2018, the dollar, on the contrary, fell, while oil prices rose, which, as a result, affected the strengthening of the ruble.

Among the main advantages of investing in the American currency are the following:

• Availability. Any Russian who wants, even not with the largest capital, can buy dollars, and in the long run, get an increase in the total amount.
• Investment liquidity. At any time, the depositor can exchange for rubles and thus get his money back in the form of national currency.

The main disadvantages of such investments are:

• The dollar exchange rate can be difficult to predict. The banknotes bought at the peak of growth in the future may not meet the expectations of investors, since the peak is usually followed by a sharp decline. It is recommended to buy dollars at a time when they are cheap.
• Loss on exchange rate differences. Banks usually sell currencies for more than they buy. Therefore, in the future, accordingly, you will have to "pay" for this.
• Keeping money in the form of foreign currency can only bring a one-time profit, and not be a source of stable income.

Experts believe that this type of investment is often not even able to recoup the inflation rate. Together with the dollar, prices in Russia begin to rise, which ultimately makes the benefit from the acquisition of the American currency equal to zero.

Most experts are confident that this year we should expect a strengthening of the national currency, and not an intensive rise in the dollar. Nevertheless, with a great desire to invest in foreign currency, it is better not to rush into this matter.

Stepan Demura's opinion on the purchase of the dollar now

Renowned economist and critic Stepan Demura believes that the Russian economy is doomed to failure. In the future, the dollar will rise in price up to 200-300 rubles. for a unit.

The expert made such a forecast in response to the speech of Vladimir Putin in March. According to Demura, the president is clearly disingenuous, speaking about the incredible prospects of the domestic currency in the future.

The critic was skeptical about the election promises of Vladimir Putin, who said that Russia's economy will grow in the future higher than in the whole world. Stepan Demura is sure that if the president did not fulfill the previous promises, then there is no point in listening to the current ones either.

In case the Russian economy is facing a collapse, it is really reasonable to buy dollars. However, you should also be careful here. It is better not to risk your capital by listening to experts' suggestions.

It is important, first of all, to be aware of current events, and now the dollar, as you know, does not differ in particular intensive growth. Perhaps it makes sense to buy the American currency in order to catch the peak of the price dynamics of the dollar exchange rate in the future and get the expected benefits.

The protracted depreciation of the US dollar brought it to the level of 65 rubles, which we have not seen since last autumn. DP found five reasons to buy the dollar now and two not to.

The main reason for strengthening ruble since the end of January this year, of course, is the rapid rise in oil prices. The price of black gold in less than 3 months has added more than 50% (see "Prices of the Dollar and Oil") and caused a fierce demand from investors, both foreign and Russian, for ruble assets, primarily bonds.

Interest is in debt securities on the part of foreign investors is associated with the difference in interest rates: if in many developed countries the yields on government bonds are negative, then in Russia they are on average double-digit, that is, more than 10% per annum. The only reason not to take advantage of this difference to earn money was the risk of the ruble weakening. But as soon as the upward trend began in the oil market, investors stopped paying attention to this risk. As a result, since January 27, the RF Ministry of Finance has placed federal loan bonds in the amount of over 300 billion rubles.

At the same time, capital outflow from Russia decreased - an important factor of pressure on the ruble exchange rate. Russian borrowers began to spend less hard currency to pay off foreign debts. The maximum amount of payments, almost $ 22 billion, fell in December last year, and in the following months the payment schedule is more lenient (see "Repayment Schedule"). In addition, the population began to travel less abroad and buy currency in connection with this. Under these conditions, the ruble had no chance not to strengthen. However, now, after the ruble has strengthened against the dollar and the euro by more than 20%, most of the factors supporting it can be considered won back. It's time to think about buying currency.

Rapid rise in prices for oil at the end of winter was caused primarily by its oversold: by the end of January, the price of Brent crude fell from its maximum level by more than 5 times, to $ 27.1 per barrel. Meanwhile, the overproduction of oil in the world, which so frightened the participants in the commodity market, is gradually decreasing due to the reduction in shale oil production in the United States.

Five reasons

In recent weeks euphoria in the oil market, expectations were fueled by a meeting of oil producers in the capital of Qatar, Doha, where representatives of cartel members and some other countries, including Russia, are going to agree on freezing average daily oil production at the level of January 2016. The meeting was scheduled for April 17, and today, following its results, many experts expect a downward correction in oil prices. This should happen in any case: if the oil producers succeed in reaching an agreement, then the stock exchange rule "buy on rumors - sell on facts" will work. And if there is no agreement, oil prices will fall due to disappointment with this fact.

Second reason to fall ruble can be considered a reversal of the dollar on the international foreign exchange market. For example, in relation to the euro, the dollar has lost 6% in about a month since March 10, but, having reached a minimum on April 12, it began to strengthen and won back about 2% in a couple of days. The dollar demonstrates similar dynamics in relation to many other currencies.

The ruble is still pretty strong is holding near the reached maximum, but if the dollar continues to grow against all currencies in the Forex market, the Russian dollar will also not stand aside. Expectations for the Bank of Russia to cut the key rate on April 29 also play against the ruble. For such a decision, all the conditions have developed: inflation in the country is approaching 7% in annual terms, and the key rate remains at 11% per annum, although the Central Bank claims that inflation targeting is the main priority in its monetary policy. The fourth reason for the weakening of the ruble may be the resumption of foreign currency purchases to replenish gold and foreign exchange reserves. The Central Bank plans to resume this practice, which was stopped in July 2015, said at a press conference on March 18, the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina.

Finally, it's worth remembering that the weaker the ruble, the easier it is for the state to fulfill its budgetary spending obligations. According to preliminary estimates of the RF Ministry of Finance, in January-March 2016 the budget was executed with a deficit of 712.9 billion rubles, or 3.7% of GDP. Such a deficit is partly due to the overvalued ruble exchange rate: the current cost of a barrel of oil in rubles (approximately 2,900) is lower than that set in the basic version of the RF budget (3,150). And at the end of January, when the price of oil was at its lowest, the price of a barrel of Brent dropped to 2,200 rubles. In the future, after the expected correction, oil growth may resume, but not at the same pace as in the last 2.5 months. "Since we do not expect a strong rise in oil prices sufficient to offset the seasonal contraction in the current account balance, at least in the second quarter of 2016, our forecast assumes a weakening of the ruble to at least 70 rubles per dollar towards the end of the first half of the year," says Denis Poryvay, analyst.

Take or wait

Of course, if everyone the above arguments did not arouse objections from market participants, the dollar rate would have already been above 70 rubles. However, on the morning of April 15, the forces of buyers and sellers of the dollar came to equilibrium at 66 rubles. Perhaps the players on the foreign exchange market do not exclude a final rise in oil prices after the meeting in Doha. It often happens on the stock exchange that the movement, which is obvious to the majority, begins with a sharp jerk in the opposite direction in order to "drop" so-called "weak hands" from promising positions - doubting or overly indebted players who are unwilling or unable to suffer losses. If, suppose, before the downward movement, oil rises to $ 48-50 per barrel, the dollar may well drop to 63 rubles or even 60.

Another consideration playing against buying the dollar at the moment - the approach of the period of tax payments. At the end of each month, exporting companies usually sell hundreds of billions of rubles worth of currency in order to transfer these rubles to the budget. Thus, they put some pressure on the dollar and euro rates.

First of all, the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate is determined by oil prices, all other factors are of secondary importance. Capital outflow from Russia has slowed down, in my opinion, primarily due to the fall in oil prices, since the inflow of petrodollars to the country has decreased, which could then be withdrawn. Foreign investors see that many Russian assets look attractive, primarily because of their low prices, but they are mostly afraid to invest because of high country risks.

Economy

In recent days, the MICEX index has not only set new highs, but also crossed the 2,200-point mark, and the ruble has strengthened rapidly. What is the reason for the positive wave on the Russian market, can it be considered a Christmas rally and is it worth buying dollars? Permanent expert GOROBZOR.RU comments Vadim Boltyrov, Director of BCS Premier in Ufa.

- There are new records on the MICEX, the ruble is getting stronger at the beginning of the week. What factors contributed to this?

- The MICEX index climbed above 2200 points. This level was designated as an optimistic growth target back in 2015. It was reached mainly due to the rise in oil prices above $ 55 on positive news.

Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia announced its readiness to cut production more than it was agreed on November 30. Oil-producing countries that are not part of the cartel, including Russia, joined the agreement and agreed to cut production by 558 thousand barrels per day. Thus, the cumulative volume of reduction will amount to 1.8 million barrels per day, which has caused a wave of optimism: investors hope that this will be enough to restore the balance in the oil market.

Additional support to our market was provided by macroeconomic reports from the United States and China, indicating continued high demand for commodities, as well as the decision of the European Central Bank to extend the asset repurchase program. Rosneft's deal to sell a 19.5% stake to a consortium of foreign investors was a clear positive signal for the market's attitude to Russian risk - it demonstrates Russia's resilience to Western sanctions.

- Can we talk about the New Year rally? What constraints do you see?

- The pre-New Year rally has already been largely implemented. The growth continues for five consecutive weeks. A number of indicators signal overbought stocks. The risk / return ratio for many instruments and the entire MICEX index as a whole is no longer very attractive for entry at current levels. In other words, the market is currently at its highs, so that many even very confident growth ideas carry the risk of running into a correction.

In the medium term, before the New Year, quotes can reach the two strongest resistance levels: 2260 and 2295-2300 points. However, it is important to keep the constraints in mind.

The main such factor is the Fed meeting this week, and not the decision itself (the rate hike is practically guaranteed), but the expected signals from Janet Yellen regarding the acceleration of the pace of tightening of monetary policy.

- The US dollar is already worth less than 62. However, there is no excitement in the banks, and according to statistics, the demand for currency is still falling. How can this be explained? Is now the right time to buy dollars?

- Physical demand for currency is declining for two main reasons. The first is precisely the strengthening and stabilization of the ruble against the dollar and the euro. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has strengthened by 12%; since the end of spring, fluctuations in the main currency pairs have decreased. The second reason is the decline in real incomes of the population - in the three quarters of 2016, they fell by 5.5%. Simply put, the population has few free resources to buy currency.

If we talk about buying a currency in order to diversify savings, then the current levels are quite suitable for a partial formation of a currency position. Its optimal share in the structure of savings of a person living and spending money in Russia is 40%. It is advisable to keep at least 60% in rubles. If we are talking about buying currency for consumer purposes, for example, to travel abroad on New Year's holidays, then you should not wait for a special moment - under current conditions, the chances that the exchange rate will be lower than the current one by the time of the trip are approximately equal to the chances that a less favorable course will be established.

MOSCOW, February 27 - RIA Novosti, Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble, which has renewed its maximum for more than 2.5 years against the dollar, may soon be corrected downward, which makes it attractive to buy the American currency at the levels of 55-56 rubles, experts interviewed by RIA Novosti say.

The exchange rate dynamics of the forex market and external factors in the form of sanctions risks may prevent the ruble from developing success, analysts believe, arguing their recommendations.

The dollar rate against the ruble on Tuesday morning dropped to the minimum of the year and then renewed its minimum since July 2015 - around 55.5575 rubles.

By 14.55 Moscow time, the dollar exchange rate "tomorrow" was increased by 24 kopecks - to 55.94 rubles, the euro - by 33 kopecks - to 68.90 rubles.

Ruble strength factors

Judging by the market reaction, the revision of the rating of Russia by the S&P agency upward was not fully incorporated in the prices, which was reflected in the sharp strengthening of the ruble, and the instability of the dollar's position in Forex and the resumption of the rise in oil prices reinforced the "bullish" bias, the analyst of the GC says. InstaForex Igor Kovalev.

“The peak of the February tax payments to the budget in Russia also contributed. All this created the conditions for purchases of the Russian currency, which, due to the combination of such powerful factors, outstripped all its colleagues in the segment of emerging markets,” he added.

The strengthening of the ruble was facilitated by an increase in the sovereign rating of the Russian Federation, a jump in oil prices, as well as cold weather in Europe, which caused an increase in fuel consumption, including Russian gas, says Georgy Vashchenko, head of operations in the Russian stock market at Freedom Finance.

The ruble exchange rate was positively influenced by the increase in the sovereign rating of Russia by the S&P agency and payments to the budget of the mineral extraction tax, says Tom Levinson of Sberbank KIB.

Against the backdrop of these payments, the supply of foreign exchange from exporters was very significant, and the volume of foreign exchange trading at the Moscow Exchange reached $ 6.2 billion on Monday, he added.

The short-term appeal of the dollar

Speculators have expectations that the USD / RUB pair may break down the 55 mark this week, says Vashchenko from Freedom Finance Investment Company.

However, the prospects for further strengthening of the ruble look uncertain, says InstaForex's Kovalev. First, the Brent quotes, having met local resistance in the region of $ 67.75 the day before, moved to a correction and are trading with a bearish bias in the morning, partly under the influence of technical factors, supplemented by the statement of the head of the IEA that by next year the United States will become the largest world oil producer, he says.

“Secondly, much will depend on the further dynamics of the dollar in Forex. this year, this will be enough to revive the demand for the dollar everywhere. Thus, today the dollar-ruble pair may show expectant consolidation, and then strengthen slightly, with possible attempts to return above 56, "Kovalev said.

On Tuesday, the dollar will remain in the corridor of 55.5-56.25 rubles, said Vaschenko of the Freedom Finance Investment Company.

The USD / RUB pair should hold on Tuesday near a multi-year low of about 55.6, estimates Levinson of Sberbank KIB.

Already from Wednesday, the ruble will begin to experience pressure against the background of increased interest in the main reserve currencies, said Alexander Vyunitskiy, general director of NPF Soglasie-OPS JSC.

"Internal factors supporting the Russian currency (tax period) by this time will naturally be exhausted. The ruble will not strengthen until the end of this week and the downward adjustment of oil prices. Therefore, the dollar by the end of this week may well go into the range of 56.5-57 , 5 rubles ", - he estimated.

The sanctions topic can add negative to the Russian foreign exchange market, believes Denis Davydov from Nordea Bank.

“The day before, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin noted that new anti-Russian sanctions could be imposed within 30 days. included in the current configuration of the sanctions. In the meantime, the short-term target for the USD / RUB pair is 55.4-56, "he added.

Thus, today's renewal of the almost three-year bottom with the dollar can be used to buy the American currency, if such operations were planned, says Sergei Suverov, head of the analytical department of BK Savings Management. In the near future, there are prerequisites for a weakening of the Russian currency: sanctions, a possible suspension of the growth of oil prices, he argues.

"However, until the end of the year, high volatility of the ruble is not expected. Therefore, from an investment point of view, in this period the ruble yield may turn out to be higher than the dollar yield," added Suverov.