Exchange rates for December. Nervous December. What awaits the ruble, dollar and euro in the last month of the year? . Factors behind the fall of the ruble

The exchange rate of foreign currencies in relation to the Russian one in last days attracts increased attention from the public of our country in view of the sharp fluctuations that, although characteristic foreign exchange market, but every time they happen unexpectedly.

The Bank of Russia significantly lowered the rates of major world currencies on Tuesday, December 13. The dollar exchange rate dropped by 1.72 rubles to 61.58 rubles, the euro fell by 2.14 rubles to 65.07 rubles. The cost of the bi-currency basket (0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros) decreased by 1.91 rubles compared to the previous figure, after which it stopped at 63.15 rubles.

If you look at the situation that developed on the Moscow Exchange last night, it becomes clear that the dollar and euro had a very difficult time in the battle with the ruble, when many factors pointed against foreign currency. In particular, according to data at the time of closure trading session, namely at 23:44 Moscow time, the dollar fell by 1.43 rubles, and the euro by 1.14 rubles. Accordingly, these currencies were worth 61.06 rubles against the ruble at that moment. and 64.91 rubles.

As for oil prices, they do not think of stopping their growth, which has been taking place for several days in a row. According to the latest data, the cost of a barrel of Brent “black gold” reached $55.79.

Exchange rates: forecast for the dollar exchange rate for December 2016

Current significant strengthening Russian currency occurs mainly due to the rising price of oil, which the day before reached the 57-dollar mark, if we talk about a mixture called Brent. This figure is a record for Last year. As you know, “black gold” moved up in value so dramatically after the OPEC countries managed to reach an agreement with those states that are not members of the cartel so that the level of production began to systematically decline from January 1, 2017. Many experts called this deal historic, highlighting the huge role in its achievement of Russia, namely President Vladimir Putin.

From the forecast of the expert community for December 2016, several conclusions can be drawn: most likely, they note, the strengthening of the Russian currency will soon stop and the ruble will begin to weaken. Current growth is allowing US shale producers to secure more lucrative contracts. For this reason, pressure will start on quotes, which will entail a reverse reaction - the dollar will begin to rise in price. In turn, the euro in such realities will continue to decline and may well reach the level of the value of the American currency.

At the same time, experts note that further growth of the domestic currency may be facilitated by the US Federal Reserve's decision on the rate, which will be announced this week. From the American regulator in this moment many expect a rate increase, which should happen with a probability of almost 100 percent. In addition, next year the rate may be adjusted upward at a much more confident pace than in 2016.

Forecasts for the end of 2016, which were given by economists before and after the August fall of the ruble, differ significantly. Previously, leading experts in Russia and many Western countries believed that the ratio of 60 rubles/dollar was the most likely.

But after the collapse of the yuan, the fall in the cost of a barrel of oil, and the return to the Iranian market, it is difficult to say how much the dollar will cost against the ruble in December. Its cost is determined depending on many factors. But most of all it is affected by the price of oil. Analysts are afraid to make accurate assumptions. They say that one should not exclude a situation in which it could depreciate to $30. per barrel. But at the same time, they say that its cost may increase to 65 USD. And this could lead to the strengthening of the ruble and maintaining the exchange rate at the level of 50 rubles/dollar.

The last scenario, according to many, is quite likely. After all, the August reduction in price will lead to an increase in demand for this resource, and against the backdrop of the stock market collapse of the American exchange, to an increase in the cost of oil. But analysts do not give accurate forecasts as to what the exchange rate will be, because in the current situation it is impossible to make long-term assumptions. No one has a clear understanding of what could happen in the oil market even over the next one or two months.

A good forecast for the dollar exchange rate for December 2016 in Russia is provided by Raiffeisen specialists. They believe that a ratio of 65 rubles/dollar will be quite likely. Sberbank CIB specialists also give this forecast.

Economists from the Financial Group BCS are more optimistic. They make the most favorable assumptions, believing that a dollar can be purchased for 50 rubles. But only a few support this position.

Many expect the dollar to fall by the end of the year and the associated rise in oil prices. If such a forecast comes true, then the domestic currency will regain its position and remain at the level of 60.5-62 rubles/dollar. But these expectations will be justified if oil prices rise to at least $50. Also, the possibility of developing this scenario is evidenced by the fact that the New York and Chinese stock markets are in an unstable situation at the end of summer.

Some brokers take the position that in December 2016 the ratio may be around 70-88 rubles/dollar. It would be possible to make more accurate forecasts if the price of oil is known. The optimistic forecast assumes that oil will cost $50 per barrel, while the pessimistic forecast assumes it will fall below $40.

Alfa Capital analysts say that if last news will not change, and the price of oil will remain at the level of August, then the year can be closed with a rate not exceeding 68 rubles/dollar.

In general, forecasts for December cannot be called pessimistic. Most experts believe that the dollar exchange rate will no longer be in a fever, and it will consolidate its position in the range between 60 and 70 rubles. Of course, these forecasts will be valid if oil does not fall in price to $30 per barrel by December. You can also hope for an improvement in the situation if the government decides to support the ruble. In this case, even a drop in oil will not have too much of an impact. Gold and foreign exchange reserves The federation, according to analysts, should be enough to prevent the situation from destabilizing.

Forex analysts are confident that the dollar/ruble pair will experience short-term fluctuations in December.

The head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, said that privatization will not affect the foreign exchange market.

Another factor that could lead to destabilization in the market is an increase in geopolitical tensions. Instead of lifting existing sanctions, the US and EU countries are planning to introduce new sanctions. New sanctions will arise as a result of the conflict in Syria. Another factor that will not allow the currency to strengthen is the unresolved conflict in Ukraine.

Experts are confident that the gradual weakening of the ruble will only have a positive effect on the state’s economy. As a result of the depreciation of the currency, the country reduces the budget deficit, and Russian entrepreneurs gain a competitive advantage.

In general, almost all dollar exchange rate forecasts for December 2016 are pessimistic. The price of the American currency in the last month of the year will fluctuate in the range of 62-68 rubles.

This forecast for the dollar exchange rate for December 2017 will come true only if the price of oil does not fall to 30. Until November 15, the cost of black gold only increased - to 45.42 dollars per barrel.

If the cost of black gold reaches 50, then the ruble may reach 62. At the moment, the rise in the cost of oil is due to the efforts of OPEC countries, which are aimed at reducing production. Today, Qatar, Venezuela and Algeria are looking for ways to regulate contradictions between large oil-producing countries. Earlier, the Minister of Economy of Saudi Arabia called on all OPEC members to come to a common denominator to reduce oil production. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for November 30, 2016.

There is still instability in the EU. Eurozone countries still cannot cope with the consequences of Brexit. The euro/dollar pair continues a downward trend, which will last until the end of 2016.

Euro exchange rate forecasts for December 2016 similar in that this month the trend towards a depreciation of the euro will continue. At the moment the EU has a lot of problems, including emigrants. To improve the current situation, the ECB kept the interest rate at a record low and also kept the quantitative easing program in operation.

At the moment, European countries are not experiencing the most better times. Inflation based on results current year is 0.2%, which is 10 times lower than the target value of two percent. GDP growth in the next three years will remain at 1.6%, which also scares many experts. The threat of deflation is prompting the ECB to continue measures to improve the economy. The bank's discount rate remains low, but the deposit rate is minus 4%.

dollar exchange rate forecast for December 2016

A negative rate has a negative impact on the banking industry. As a result, many credit institutions are not in the best position. Deutsche Bank is also in a deplorable state, and this is already a threat to the entire stability of the system. Experienced experts say that to support financial sector Huge sums may soon be required, which will negatively impact the economy.

The EU is also suffering because of the UK's exit, as well as because of the huge number of emigrants, which only increases the divisions between EU members. Experts claim that after the UK finally leaves the EU, trade volumes will decline sharply. This development threatens the continued existence of the European Union, which, of course, affects the mood of investors.

Fresh euro exchange rate forecast for December 2016 year says that in the future the euro will continue to depreciate. According to APECON, in December the euro will cost 64-68 rubles. If the price of oil also increases in the future, then the cost of the euro in December could be 64 rubles.

dollar exchange rate forecast for December 2016

Despite numerous attempts by APECON to reduce oil production, there is still a lot of black gold on the market. In addition, the previously reached agreement between major oil-producing countries is under great threat due to the position of Iran and Iraq. Experienced analysts do not rule out another collapse in oil prices, which, of course, will deal a blow to the Russian economy and lead to a devaluation of the national currency.

In December 2016, the euro exchange rate in relation to all world currencies will decline. But what will happen to our currency at the end of the year depends on the future price of oil. The latest forecast for the euro exchange rate for December 2016 states that in December the euro will cost 62-68 rubles.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not a guide to action.

The Bank of Russia has established official courses major world currencies on Monday, December 19. The dollar rose in price by 11 kopecks compared to Friday - to 61.75 rubles, while the euro fell by 13 kopecks - to 64.48 rubles.

The cost of the bi-currency basket (0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros) on Monday is 62.9797 rubles.

At the same time, world oil prices started the week with growth. This is evidenced by the data electronic trading as of 8:28 a.m. Monday.

Thus, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, futures for WTI oil for delivery in February increased by 0.85% to $53.4 per barrel. February Brent crude futures at London Stock Exchange ICE Futures rose 0.65% to $55.57 per barrel.

Dollar and Euro exchange rate forecast, expert opinions:

The ruble exchange rate in the coming week will continue to depend on oil prices, according to experts interviewed by News. In addition, the ruble will be helped by tax payments and the factor of selling the Rosneft stake - the transaction was carried out in euros, but rubles need to be transferred to the budget.

At the end of last week, the Russian Central Bank expectedly left the rate unchanged, which in the short term will also help strengthen the ruble.

Also, according to statistics, the number of Russians wishing to holiday abroad new year holidays, is decreasing every year, which means the demand for cash dollars and euros is also falling. Thanks to all these factors, experts believe, by the end of the week the dollar will trade around 61-62 rubles, and the euro at levels of 64-65 rubles.

As for the “main friend” of the ruble - oil, then, according to expert forecasts, this week “black gold” will trade in the range of $54-56 per barrel. In the days remaining before the holidays, only weekly statistics from the United States, and specifically data on commercial oil reserves, can affect the price of oil futures. An increase or slight decrease in the volume of these reserves can lead to a decrease in oil prices, and a decrease, on the contrary, can lead to an increase. Also this week, statistics on American GDP for the third quarter are expected, the growth of which could raise the dollar exchange rate against world reserve currencies, including the ruble.

To summarize, we can expect that, given favorable factors, by the end of the year the price of oil may try to test the level of $60 per barrel. In this case, experts predict that by the New Year the dollar will go to the range of 60-62 rubles, and the euro - 63-64.5 rubles.

Is it worth accumulating this currency now, in what case can it bring you profit, and how high this profit will be - we will find answers to all these questions in this material.

How much will the dollar cost in December 2016?

In December 2016, the dollar is predicted to strengthen and, accordingly, increase in price. According to the most conservative forecasts, this currency will rise after a slight November decline of 1.5%.

Accordingly, the average price of the dollar for this period will be 66.31 rubles. According to the same forecasts, the minimum value of the dollar for December will be 65.55 rubles.

There may be several reasons why the price of the dollar will rise during this period. However, among the main analysts for this period, they name the end of the year with its conclusion of new contracts, which means a new round of excitement for the dollar.

In addition, it is during this period that a large number of mutual settlements are usually carried out in foreign currency, so as not to leave a debt at the beginning of the next period. At the same time, which is also important, the population usually spends a large amount of foreign currency in preparation for the New Year holidays.

That is why a situation is being formed in the market in which selling the dollar is the simplest and most profitable for all groups of currency holders. But buying it remains not very profitable.

Speaking about one of the most common and important international currencies, it is impossible to ignore the second one - the euro.

Forecasts for it are not as rosy as for the dollar, but they have the same trend - after a slight subsidence in November, this currency is expected to strengthen again, although the dynamics, unfortunately, will also remain negative.

How long exactly? Speaking of which, financial experts agree that this currency will slow down its rate of decline by about 1.2%.

Thanks to this, at the beginning of the month the value of the euro will be fixed at 73.07 rubles. But at the end of the month, the main currency of Europe can be purchased at 72.12 rubles.

This dynamics is caused by an increase in the number of transactions with foreign partners that will be paid in euros, as well as an increase in the level of currency sales, also associated with preparations for the New Year and Christmas holidays.

A further decline in this currency is not expected in the near future. However, it is likely that with any negative events on the European stock exchange or in the economies of some countries that are part of the EU, the rate of decline of the euro may increase even more.

At the moment, it is not worth buying this currency even at the rate that, at first glance, is the most attractive for the year. The fact is that analysts cannot yet determine when the next round of growth will begin. European currency, and whether there will be one at all.

So the possibility remains high that the euro will sink even more, and you will not receive the expected profit from trading it. But in current period It is very profitable to buy currency for your expenses while traveling in Europe, especially since they are organized quite often during holidays.

Having figured out what it will be, we can move on to the question of the benefits of investing in this currency or investing money in euros in order to determine whether you should accumulate such funds in a given period. Or at the moment it is worth choosing for yourself completely different investment options that are available to a wide number of people.

Is it worth investing in currencies during this period?

In December, investments in currencies, be it the dollar or the euro, will hardly be called successful. Due to further exchange rate fluctuations, you may lose your investment. Unfortunately, a similar situation will be faced by those who decide to deposit dollars or euros during the same period.

Such investments are in view low interest rates By foreign currency deposits may also result in losses. However, here we need to make a small clarification: if you make a deposit for six months or more, you can still expect a profit from a dollar deposit - this currency is predicted to grow in the spring, and by the summer it will bring you a certain income.

As for the euro, there are no such bright prospects here; perhaps no one will guarantee you the stability of such a currency. Even deposit accounts in this currency, due to their undervaluation interest rate, will probably not bring you the expected benefits in the coming year.

Today they call the best in this field securities, and . With them you can be more free to determine the timing of your investment.

In addition, by choosing the right strategies for working with such assets, whether for beginners or amateurs, you will never go bankrupt and at any time you can easily change the direction of investment if you have such a need.