Labor market modeling and forecasting. Mathematical modeling and forecasting of the organized labor market in the region golyatin andrey olegovich Analysis and modeling of the labor market
FEDERAL AGENCY FOR EDUCATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
STATE EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION OF THE HIGHER
PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION
KAZAN STATE TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY
FACULTY OF ECONOMY, MANAGEMENT AND LAW
COURSE WORK
on discipline: "Economic and mathematical modeling"
on the topic: "Economic and mathematical modeling of labor migration and unemployment processes"
Completed: Lobanova E.V.
The work is protected "__" _____ 2011
Supervisor _________________
KAZAN 2011
Introduction
1. Theoretical foundations of the organization and functioning of the labor market
2. Economic and mathematical modeling as a tool for studying labor market processes
3. Unemployment
3.1. The concept and consequences of unemployment
3.2. Registration of unemployed
3.3. Types of unemployment
3.4. Cost of unemployment
3.5. Classical and Keynesian models of unemployment. State measures to regulate unemployment
4. Migration
4.1. Migration theory
4.2. Integration theory
4.3. Conclusions from practice
4.4. Simple migration models
4.4.1. Harris-Todaro model
4.4.2. The “vector of advantages” model
4.4.3. Human capital theory model
4.4.4. Inference from the model
4.5. Impact of labor movement on comparative advantage and welfare
4.5.1. Benefits of the "host" country from immigration
4.5.2. Negative manifestations of immigration for the "host" country
4.5.3. Benefits from labor movement for the country of emigration
4.5.4. Negative consequences for the country of emigration
Conclusion
Bibliography
Introduction
My course work deals with such problems as labor migration and unemployment, or rather, the economic and mathematical modeling of these processes.
Migration as a phenomenon was known as early as the 10th century. Throughout the entire time, it underwent changes due to the fact that the social system was changing, and, consequently, the worldview of people. The states already then made attempts to manage, systematize and record migration processes. And only in our days these attempts lead to positive results.
In my opinion, the problem of migration is very relevant now, because many have the opportunity to freely enter the territory of foreign states. For the most part, people travel to the territory of another country (or their city) in an attempt to find at least a temporary or higher-paying job. The process of internationalization of production, which is actively taking place all over the world, is accompanied by the internationalization of the labor force. Labor migration has become a part of international economic relations. Migration flows rush from one region and country to another. By giving rise to certain problems, labor migration provides undoubted advantages to countries that receive and supply labor.
One of the manifestations of the internationalization and democratization of the economic and socio-cultural life of mankind, as well as the consequences of acute interethnic contradictions, direct clashes between countries and peoples, emergencies and natural disasters are large-scale intracountry and intercountry movements of the population and labor resources in various forms. These are voluntary migrants who enjoy the rights and opportunities provided to them by world civilization and international labor markets to choose their place of residence and work. These are refugees and forced migrants who leave their homes not of their own free will, but under the pressure of "circumstances".
The world community, which until recently did not directly feel the size, characteristics and consequences of migration processes at the international level, faced the need to coordinate the efforts of many countries to resolve acute situations and collectively regulate migration flows.
The current transition to market relations in Russia is associated with great difficulties and the emergence of many socio-economic problems. One of them is the problem of employment, which is inextricably linked with people and their production activities.
The market presents and demands a completely different level of labor relations at each enterprise. However, effective mechanisms for the use of labor resources have not yet been created, new and old employment problems are emerging and unemployment is growing.
Mass poverty and social insecurity of broad strata of the population is our reality.
The transition to a market economy has inevitably led to major changes in the use of labor resources. With the restructuring of the country's economic life, many factors have emerged that affect the qualitative characteristics of the labor market. Emigration of the population to non-CIS countries mainly encompasses highly qualified personnel, specialists who are able to withstand competition in the world labor market. For Russia, it will have a twofold consequence - on the one hand, the supply of labor will decrease, on the other, its quality will deteriorate.
The regulatory role of the state should be to constantly maintain a balance of economic and employment priorities in programs of economic transformation.
The basic concepts when describing the mechanism of functioning of any market are supply and demand. In the labor market, which is a very specific market, the supply is formed by workers (sellers), and employers (buyers) act as bearers of demand. Consideration of the joint dynamics of labor demand and supply is undoubtedly relevant both in theoretical and practical terms.
The most important task of economic science is the analysis and forecasting of socio-economic processes for a targeted impact on them. Modern science has a wide arsenal of appropriate tools, among which a special place is occupied by economic and mathematical modeling, which is relatively free from subjective ideas and preferences. It is economic and mathematical methods and models that are designed to help understand the current situation on the labor market and choose adequate tools for its regulation.
An analysis of scientific literature shows that most studies of the labor market are of a qualitative nature, and the use of quantitative methods is aimed at solving certain particular problems. It seems necessary to use in this case the principle of consistency in the development of economic and mathematical models of the labor market.
Mathematical modeling of the labor market as a socio-economic system naturally relies on a fairly extensive and deeply developed apparatus of economic and mathematical methods and models.
The goal that I set in my course work is to consider the economic and mathematical models of the processes of labor migration and unemployment. In this regard, my tasks included the consideration of such items as: theoretical foundations of the organization and functioning of the labor market, economic and mathematical modeling as a tool for studying labor market processes, unemployment (the concept and consequences of unemployment, registration of unemployed, types of unemployment, costs of unemployment, classical and Keynesian models of unemployment, government measures to regulate unemployment), migration (migration theory, integration theory, conclusions from practice, simple migration models (Harris-Todaro model, “vector of advantages” model, Human capital theory model)), the impact of labor movement strengths for comparative advantages and welfare (benefits of the "host" country from immigration, negative manifestations of immigration for the "host" country, benefits from labor force movement for the country of emigration, negative consequences for the country of emigration).
1. Theoretical foundations of the organization and functioning of the labor market
To date, there is no single definition of the concept of “labor market” in Russian economic science. In a number of works, a view has been formed at the labor market as a system of socio-economic relations between the subjects of the labor market regarding the entire complex of labor relations.
As a result of comparing the views and positions existing in the economic literature on the nature of the labor market, the following definition can be given: market labor is a system of relations and a socio-economic mechanism of interaction between employers, employees and social partners regarding the formation, distribution and use of labor in terms of its marketability.
From the point of view of the process of interaction between the bearers of demand and supply of labor, the organized labor market can be defined more narrowly. The organization of the market, and more specifically the process of meeting sellers and buyers of any product, is given by the presence of certain institutions that mediate the conclusion of the transaction. Those. a necessary sign of organization is assumed to be the presence of a specialized intermediary institute fig. 1.
Rice. 1. Intermediary institutions of the organized labor market.
The most important indicators of the labor market, like any other market, are the quantities of supply and demand, and the study of their interaction is the most interesting and relevant both theoretical and practical task. The main quantitative indicators of supply and demand in the current labor market are the number of unemployed and vacant jobs in the economic system under consideration.
In Russian statistics, as in the rest of the world, two methods of measuring unemployment are used. The first is based on the registration of the unemployed with the State Employment Service (PES), and the second is based on the results of regular labor force surveys, in which the status of the unemployed is determined based on the ILO criteria.
2. Economic and mathematical modeling as a tool for studying labor market processes
The labor market belongs to the class of complex probabilistic dynamical systems. The main method for studying such systems is the modeling method , those. a way of theoretical and practical action aimed at developing and using models.
The labor market as an object of economic and mathematical modeling is quite complex and diverse. The range of specific problems in the study of the labor market is very wide. Accordingly, the formulation of tasks and the specification of labor market processes, which are objects of modeling, determine the specifics of the methods used in the study.
Unemployment and her problems
Coursework >> Economic TheoryComparative, analysis, economics-mathematical modeling as well as statistical ... unemployment associated with cyclical processes ... the economy in attracting foreign working strength different skill levels. The situation in the region migrations ...
Economy and entrepreneurship in social and cultural services and tourism
Abstract >> Physical culture and sportsDistinguishes it from migrations. Migration includes in ... high level unemployment... However, the perspective ... is carried out in process production: working force provides productive ... performance indicators. V economics-mathematical modeling they match ...
Economy and economic theory. Textbook
Book >> Economic theoryEvaluation of investment projects "," Mathematical modeling " and others. The student must ... show the reasons for the occurrence unemployment and inflation in the market the economy, reveal the forms ... processes, international capital movement, international migration working strength, ...
The analytical method for studying economic systems is often carried out by modeling, one of the conditions of which is that the functional relationship of the main parameters of the economic system should not change during the period under consideration.
However, this condition is often difficult to meet, especially in the presence of a transitional economy.
The interpretation of the reasons for the revealed patterns requires special care. Often, a researcher explains the results obtained by the effect of one variable on another, but his opponents point out that the same results can be obtained as a result of the opposite effect or the effect of a third factor on these variables.
Modeling the labor market assumes that in this model, on the one hand, entrepreneurs act as sellers of goods and "buyers" of labor, and on the other hand, households act as buyers of goods and "sellers" of their labor. An economist modeling this situation must objectively take into account bilateral economic interests, which can manifest themselves in clear statistical criteria, and sometimes in indirect, but no less significant factors.
Modeling socio-economic processes with preliminary diagnostics is the most important prerequisite for state regulation of the economy and the development of forecasts.
State forecasting - it is a system of scientifically grounded ideas about certain areas of the country's socio-economic development.
In the context of the transition to market relations, forecasting becomes the initial stage, the basis of the entire management system: a change in the development trajectories in the market, an increase in the choice of its options, an increase in the intensity of the search for ways out of negative situations is achieved with the help of a developed system of alternative forecasts. In addition, in a market economy, the number of entities that independently, under their own responsibility make certain decisions (state enterprises and enterprises with foreign investments, cooperatives, farms, local authorities of republics, territories, regions) is increasing. Each of these subjects needs to anticipate changes in the market situation, the possible consequences of their decisions.
Forecasts are developed in several versions and include quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the development of the macroeconomic situation.
For example, forecasts of employment of the population are based on demographic, social, scientific and technical, environmental, foreign economic, sectoral, regional and other forecasts of certain areas of activity. The result of state forecasting is the documents necessary to regulate the development of the economy and develop a concept for the country's development.
The basis of a scientific forecast is knowledge:
- a) about the essence of processes in the predicted system during the characteristic time of its development (during the full cycle of development of the system or its part);
- b) about the change during the same time in the external conditions in which the given system develops;
- c) on the state and development trends at the time of making the forecast and on the degree of coincidence of the predicted direction of development with the direction of events predetermined by specific control actions.
Complex forecast studies involve the use of several methods, each of which is designed to solve a special class of problems that arise at different stages of forecast development.
The starting point in the development of regulatory forecasts is to set the ultimate goal of the process development. The main problem of the study is the reconciliation of this distant goal with the actions in the present and future tense that need to be taken to achieve it. One of the tasks of the experts is to build the so-called graph of events from top to bottom: from the original goal (the top of the graph) to its bottom. Each event is a condition for reaching a top-level event.
Prediction of such socio-economic processes as employment and the labor market takes into account the system of labor balances, which includes a set of balances that characterize various aspects of the reproduction of labor resources. With the help of these balances, the most important patterns of the use of labor resources are identified both in the country as a whole and in its individual, usually largest regions. Therefore, along with the consolidated balance of labor resources, private labor balances are drawn up or calculations are made for individual elements of the labor force balance. The data of labor balances are used to determine the total number of labor resources, the level of employment of the population, the structure of workers by profession, etc.
Conditional assumptions about the functioning of the goods market determine the situation in the labor market. These assumptions in all cases imply the full adaptability of supply to demand at given prices (at a constant interest rate, commodity price and wage rate, as well as at a constant value of fixed capital and property capital). This circumstance means the possibility of using additional labor to increase additional production.
This kind of situation characterizes a short-term equilibrium in the presence of opportunistic and forced unemployment. In this equilibrium, producers are ready to offer any amount of goods requested by consumers at the prevailing market price for goods, and employees are ready to offer any amount of work requested by employers at a given wage rate.
Unemployment is a constant companion of the market economy, the result of the interaction between the market demand for labor and its supply.
Forecasting the unemployment rate is most often based on a stable relationship: during a period of economic recession, unemployment increases, and during periods of recovery, it decreases, but there are always people looking for work.
Unemployment is measured by two main indicators: its level and its duration. The unemployment rate is calculated as the proportion of officially registered fully unemployed in the total economically active population, and the duration of unemployment determines how long people have been unemployed. By comparing the level of unemployment with its duration, one can assess its significance. With a higher unemployment rate, but its short duration, the situation may be more favorable than with reciprocal values.
Excessive unemployment has serious economic and social costs. The main economic cost of unemployment is the uncreated product.
The American economist A. Oaken, projecting the consequences of unemployment, deduced a mathematical pattern, according to which 1% excess of the actual level of unemployment over the natural one causes the growth of GNP to lag by 2.5%.
Other costs are the need to support the unemployed, as well as the possibility of mass unrest, which can lead to social and political change. Therefore, the state regulates employment (and therefore unemployment) in the labor market. The main thing in this process is pursuing an active employment policy, which does not exclude social protection from forced unemployment.
Social engineering, focused, among other things, on the prevention of unemployment for the most economically active part of the population, is associated with the concept "human capital", which means the available stock of knowledge, skills, motivations. Investments in human capital can be education, accumulation of production experience, health protection, geographic mobility, information retrieval. When investing in education, a person behaves rationally, weighing the corresponding benefits and costs.
In foreign economic practice, the concept of "human capital" is used already at the level of theoretical justification. In particular, G. Becker was the first to carry out a practical, statistically correct calculation of the economic efficiency of education. To determine income, for example from higher education, the lifetime earnings of those who graduated from high school were subtracted from the lifetime earnings of those who graduated from college. In the composition of training costs, the main element was "lost earnings"; income lost by students during the years of study. Comparing the benefits and costs of education makes it possible to calculate the return on investment in a person. According to Becker's calculations, in the United States, the return on higher education is at the level of 10-15%, which exceeds the profitability indicators for most firms. This confirmed his assumption about the rationality of the behavior of students and their parents.
Of great theoretical importance was the distinction introduced by Becker between special and general investments in a person (and, more broadly, between general and specific resources in general). The realization of knowledge is conditioned by management technology, i.e. the transformation of knowledge into an organizational project, scheme, plan, assembly method, correct allocation of resources.
As soon as we recognize this, industrial civilization ends, mass production ceases to be a source of wealth, especially against the background of increasing competition from developing countries, which are throwing more and more cheap and high-quality goods onto the market.
The source of wealth in human capital is what produces new knowledge: culture, education, the ability to think, ways of thinking, technology of engineering solutions, scientific research, design development.
The theory of intellectual capital produces the concept of "intellectual-intensive production". The main element of value creation is no longer knowledge itself, but the ways of using it.
The factors of economic growth are considered: technology, human capital (education and skills of people) and economies of scale (decreasing costs with increasing market size).
According to the theory of human capital, the quality of the labor force is one of the main factors of economic growth. In turn, the quality of the labor force is determined by the level of human capital, which includes the abilities, knowledge, skills, and competence inherent in individuals. Its most important forms are education, advanced training and labor migration.
- Essentially, lost earnings measure the value of students' time spent building their human capital.
- Becker G. Human capital // Economic sociology. 2001. T. 2.No. 1.
Output data of the collection:
SIMULATION OF LABOR MARKET DEVELOPMENT USING INTELLECTUAL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES
Zhuk Marina Alekseevna
Cand. econom. Sci., Associate Professor, OSU, Orenburg
Omelchenko Tatiana Valentinovna
OSU, Orenburg
Currently, the processes taking place in the regional labor markets are a relevant subject for research due to the high social significance in the post-crisis economic space of Russia. Analysis of the definitions of the labor market showed that the labor market can be defined as an economic environment or space, as a mechanism or as a system. After conducting a comparative analysis of various definitions, and having studied the essence and characteristics of the labor market, the following definition was formed: “The labor market is a dynamic economic system in which competing employers and employees enter into social and labor relations on mutually beneficial terms, as a result of which a certain level of employment and wages ”.
The above definition reflects the essence of the labor market, but does not take into account the fact that the labor market performs many functions, the most important of which are social and economic. The labor market should not be completely self-regulating only through its own mechanisms, since the unprotected segments of the population will not be able to consistently participate in social and labor relations. For these and other less significant reasons, the labor market should be regulated by the state.
The main subjects of the labor market are employers and their representatives, as well as employees. The state is also a subject of the labor market, which assumes the functions of regulating social and labor relations between employers and employees. The state, as an active participant in the labor market in a market economy, has the opportunity to create new jobs, thereby contributing to the development of the labor market and the economy as a whole.
The current state of the labor market in Russia does not meet the requirements of a growing economy, since the existence of a mismatch between supply and demand in the labor market is not temporary, but long-term.
The imbalance between supply and demand is expressed in two forms. The first implies a quantitative discrepancy between the demand and supply of labor, which is expressed in the form of unemployment or a shortage of labor resources. The second form is a mismatch between the qualification structure of supply and demand, which finds its expression in the form of a shortage of workers with the required qualifications or their surplus.
For the Orenburg region, the registered unemployment rate has fluctuated around 1% over the past five years, which suggests that there is no pronounced quantitative discrepancy between supply and demand in the labor market. But this indicator hovers around the lower limit of the natural level of unemployment, which borders on the situation of a deficit in the labor market, leading to a slowdown in economic growth.
In the face of a shortage in the labor market, government regulatory measures should be taken to ensure that the structures of supply and demand in the labor market are matched to the maximum. On the one hand, the low unemployment rate indicates that almost all of the region's economically active population is involved in labor relations, and in this case, we can talk about full employment. But on the other hand, if we analyze the living standards of the region's population, we can conclude that employment is full, but not effective.
To regulate the labor market at the city level in order to achieve effective employment, modern information technologies should be used, which will not only facilitate the automation of the collection, storage, processing and transmission of information, but also accelerate and simplify the development of measures to regulate it. These technologies include intelligent information technologies designed to solve unstructured and semi-structured problems, taking into account weakly formalized factors.
To solve the problems of labor market regulation, it is necessary to store information about the labor market and promptly obtain information about the dynamics of its indicators and structure. All this is required to develop a set of measures to regulate the labor market. To determine the development strategy, detailed and summary information for a certain past period of time and forecast information on a number of indicators are required.
Forecasting should be based on statistical information, the collection and processing of which requires material and time costs. In addition, forecasts are made using mathematical and statistical models, the construction of which also takes time, and changing the parameters of the models may require their adaptation to newly emerging conditions.
The disadvantage of this approach is that it is costly and does not allow you to quickly obtain information in the required sections, as well as the fact that it makes it possible to only partially increase the validity of decision-making, and the final management decision can only be obtained by a person. Intelligent information systems allow you to develop solutions like a person and accumulate not only information, but also knowledge, as well as management experience in the form of knowledge.
The basis of intelligent information systems is a knowledge base and a logical inference mechanism. The knowledge base is organized on the basis of the chosen knowledge representation model. The choice of a model depends on the subject area, the functional purpose of the intelligent system and the complexity of the objects.
As part of the labor market research and analysis of existing models of knowledge representation, a frame model of knowledge representation was selected and developed. This model consists of two hierarchical frame structures of supply and demand.
The developed model allows you to store knowledge about objects of the labor market, their relationships, conditions of interaction, possible situations that may occur with these objects. The frame model also makes it possible to store not just knowledge, but "deep" knowledge, which can affect not only the processes of recognizing emerging situations, but also such processes as thinking and imagination. Therefore, with the help of the developed model of knowledge representation, it is possible to model not only the current state of the labor market, but also to “play” various imaginary situations. This happens due to the fact that for each object of the frame model there is a set of actions and a set of conditions under which they will be used.
An important advantage of the frame model is that it stores both declarative and procedural knowledge, which makes it possible to fill the knowledge base through attached procedures. The knowledge base, in turn, can be replenished with some situations that are encountered in the labor market and can be considered stereotypical. Such situations, when included in the database, can be activated and, after checking the conditions, become objects of the knowledge base.
Inference in frame models is not hard-coded, which allows you to avoid constant changes and refinement of systems developed on the basis of these models. The advantages of the model also include the fact that it can be implemented using standard DBMS.
The originally developed frame model was implemented using Microsoft Visual FoxPro 9.0. The created intelligent information system was efficient, but had drawbacks:
- the development of the most intelligent information system took a lot of time and required significant efforts;
- each frame, taking into account the peculiarities of its structure, was represented in the database as a separate table with many fields standard for a certain class of objects and the level of the frame hierarchical structure, as well as an unlimited number of rows, which increased as you worked with the system and depended on the number of relationships with others objects;
- the development of internal attached procedures was carried out in several stages, and their debugging took a lot of time;
- the execution of external procedures for comparing the hierarchical structures of supply and demand took a long time with a large number of frames;
- the sets of slots for describing frames were fixed, and changing them required rebuilding the program with re-debugging and changing the attached procedures.
In connection with the listed disadvantages of the developed system, an attempt was made to implement it using the 1C: Enterprise system, as one of the most frequently used in small and medium-sized enterprises and having a wide range of functionalities that can be used to implement frames. The choice of this system made it possible to significantly speed up and simplify the process of implementing the frame model of knowledge representation, improve the methods of describing procedural and declarative knowledge, provide their visual representation, expand the functionality of the developed model and optimize the inference procedure.
The developed intelligent system is designed to perform the following main functions:
- collection, processing, storage, use and transmission of information on the state of the labor market at the city level;
- accumulation of knowledge about the labor market, emerging problems, experience in solving them and the effectiveness of the applied labor market regulation measures;
- providing information on the structure of supply and demand in the labor market, discrepancies in these structures;
- development of measures to regulate the labor market, taking into account changes in the structure of both demand and supply, as well as possible trends in the development of these structures;
The developed system should be applied in the employment service, which has data on the state of the labor market, available unemployed, free vacancies, and can also supplement information by receiving it from enterprises on available vacancies and already occupied jobs and from educational institutions for expected graduations.
The proposed intellectual system can be used in the development of a set of measures to regulate the labor market, in the development of strategies for socio-economic development, in determining the structure of recruitment to educational institutions, as well as in the development of training and retraining programs for unemployed citizens.
Bibliography:
1.Andreychikov, A.V. Intelligent information systems / A.V. Andreychikov, O. N. Andreychikova. - M.: Finance and statistics, 2004 .-- 424 p. - ISBN 5-279-02568-2.
2. Gavrilova, T.A. Knowledge base of intelligent systems / T.A. Gavrilova, V.F. Khoroshevsky - SPb .: Peter, 2001 .-- 384 p. - ISBN 5-272-00071-4.
3. Kapelyushnikov, R.I. Russian labor market: adaptation without restructuring / R. I. Kapelyushnikov. - M.: GU HSE, 2001 .-- 309 p. - ISBN 5-7598-0086-8.
4. Romanov, V.P. Intelligent information systems in economics: textbook / ed. Doctor of Economics, prof. N.P. Tikhomirov. - M .: Examination, 2007 .-- 496 p. - ISBN 5-377-00090-0.
480 RUB | UAH 150 | $ 7.5 ", MOUSEOFF, FGCOLOR," #FFFFCC ", BGCOLOR," # 393939 ");" onMouseOut = "return nd ();"> Dissertation - 480 rubles, delivery 10 minutes, around the clock, seven days a week
Golyatin Andrey Olegovich. Mathematical modeling and forecasting of the organized labor market of the region: dissertation ... Candidate of Economic Sciences: 08.00.13 / Golyatin Andrey Olegovich; [Place of protection: Ivan. state chem.-technol. un-t]. - Ivanovo, 2007 .-- 154 p. : ill. RSL OD, 61: 07-8 / 5918
Introduction
Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations of the organization and functioning of the labor market 11
1.1. Labor market: essence and basic concepts 11
1.2. Labor market mechanism 23
1.3. The number of unemployed and vacant jobs as the main indicators of the organized labor market 33
1.4. Labor market of the Ivanovo region in 1992-2006 42
Chapter 2. Mathematical modeling as a tool for studying labor market processes 52
2.1. Basic concepts of mathematical modeling 52
2.2. Economic and mathematical modeling of labor market processes 60
2.3. Model of labor supply and demand dynamics based on a system of nonlinear differential equations 67
Chapter 3. Econometric study of the dynamics of demand and supply of labor in the labor market of the Ivanovo region 78
3.1. Basic Concepts of Econometric Time Series Modeling 78
3.2. Models of analysis and forecasting of unemployment in the region 93
3.3. Vacancies and tensions in the regional labor market: analysis and forecasting 102
Chapter 4. Modeling the functioning of the Employment Service 109 based on the theory of queuing systems
4.1. State employment service: tasks and specifics of functioning 109
4.2. Basic concepts of the theory of queuing systems 117
4.3. Simulation modeling SMO 124
4.4. Functioning of the Employment Service as a queuing system: building and testing a model 129
Conclusion 136
List of used literature
Introduction to work
Relevance of the research topic
Considerable attention is paid to the problems of the functioning of the labor market, both in the world and in the domestic economic science. This is due to the special significance of the processes taking place in this market for the effective functioning of the economy as a whole, as well as to the presence of a large number of specific features inherent only in the labor market and thereby distinguishing it from other markets.
The labor market occupies a central place in a market economy, since labor is a decisive factor in production, a kind of uncontested resource. Relations in the world of work are basic, fundamental in the system of economic relations of society.
The Russian labor market has experienced numerous shocks that accompanied the process of systemic transformation of the country's economy. It so happened historically that at the moment there is no need to talk about a single all-Russian labor market, it is rather represented by a set of rather isolated regional markets, which explains the growing interest in studying the latter.
The basic concepts when describing the mechanism of functioning of any market are supply and demand. In the labor market, which is a very specific market, the supply is formed by workers (sellers), and employers (buyers) act as bearers of demand. Consideration of the joint dynamics of labor demand and supply at the regional level is undoubtedly relevant both in theoretical and practical terms.
The most important task of economic science is the analysis and forecasting of socio-economic processes for a targeted impact on them. Modern science has a wide arsenal of relevant
5 tools, among which a special place is occupied by economic and mathematical modeling, relatively free from subjective ideas and preferences. It is economic and mathematical methods and models that are designed to help comprehend the current situation on the labor market and choose adequate tools for its regulation.
Analysis of the scientific literature shows that most studies of the labor market are of a qualitative nature, and the use of quantitative methods is aimed at solving specific problems. It seems necessary to use in this case the principle of consistency in the development of economic and mathematical models of the labor market.
In this regard, the construction of a complex of economic and mathematical models for analyzing and forecasting the demand and supply of labor to substantiate regional plans for socio-economic development is undoubtedly an urgent task.
The degree of scientific elaboration of the problem.
Mathematical modeling of the labor market as a socio-economic system naturally relies on a fairly extensive and deeply developed apparatus of economic and mathematical methods and models. Of particular importance for the purposes of our research are works on statistical modeling and forecasting of economic processes - the works of S.A. Ayvazyan, T. Anderson, D. Brillinger, J. Box, G. Jenkins, J. Johnston, K. Dougherty, M. Kendall, G. Kramer, J.R. Magnus, E. Malenvaux, B.C. Mkhitaryan, R. Otnes, G. Teil, D. Enokson and others.
General approaches to mathematical modeling of socio-economic systems, their stability and management, were developed in the works of R. Allen, A. Bergstrom, V.-B. Zanga, M. Intriligator, L.V. Kantorovich, V.I. Kitaigorodsky, N.B. Kobeleva, N.E. Kobrinsky, V.A. Kolemaeva, V.V. Leontiev, J. von Neumann, B.C. Nemchinova, Yu.M. Plotinsky, I. Ekland and others.
Analysis of works devoted to the actual problem of the labor market in general and its modeling in particular, allows us to single out two major areas of research.
First direction includes research that develops general provisions of the economic theory of labor, namely the organization, functioning and performance of the relevant markets. First of all, this can be attributed to the fundamental works of the recognized authorities of economic science - A. Smith, K. Marx, A. Pigou, A. Marshall, J.M. Keynes, P. Samuelson, K.R. McConnell and others, whose merits extend far beyond the theory of labor, as well as the work of the theorists of labor relations proper - G. Becker, R. Ehrenberg, R. Smith, R.K. Filera, D.S. Khameriesh, A.E. Rees, L. Robbins, R. Gronau and others. Among the Russian authors who deeply develop theoretical aspects of the functioning of the labor market, one can single out B.C. Bulanova, N.A. Volgin, I. Zaslavsky, A. Kotlyar, R.I. Kapelyushnikov, K.G. Kazimov, A. Nikiforov, IO. Odegova, V.A. Pavlenkova, T.O. Razumov, SJ. Roshchina, G.E. Slesinger, T. Chetvernin, P.E.Shlender. and others. The concepts of the functioning of the labor market of the above authors, in fact, represent the most general models reflecting the main approaches to the study of labor processes.
Second direction represents empirical research and the actual economic and mathematical modeling of labor markets. Here the works of S. Commander, R. Layard, K. Olivetti, B. Petrongolow, A. Richter, V.E. Gimpelson, R.B. Freeman, M.E. Schafer, J. Earle, etc. ...
The studies of A.V. Andryunin, V. Bragin, A.G. Korovkina, T. D. Lapina, L. Nivorozhkina, V. Osakovsky K.V. Parbuzina A.V. Polezhaeva, K.N. Sabiryanova, L.S. Chizhova and others [18, 28, 77, 81, 82, 111, 133, 159].
For the most part, these are statistical modeling and forecasting based on classical correlation-regression or cluster analysis. Of particular interest are the works of A.G. Korovkin and his students on modeling the coordination of the dynamics of demand and supply of labor based on a system of differential equations of the Volterra-Lotka type.
In the research of these scientists, a wide range of theoretical and practical aspects of modeling labor market processes have been developed. However, the regional features in relation to the modeling of the organized labor market have not yet been sufficiently studied.
The purpose of the dissertation research is the development of a complex of economic and mathematical models for the analysis and forecasting of demand and supply of labor in the organized regional labor market.
In accordance with the goal in the dissertation, the following tasks:
study of the theoretical foundations of the functioning of the labor market, as well as the specific features of the formation and development of the Russian labor market, v particular at the regional level;
analysis and generalization of existing methods of economic and mathematical modeling of the labor market, including indicators of demand and supply of labor;
development of a set of models for analyzing and forecasting the demand and supply of labor in the organized regional labor market;
econometric analysis of the dynamics of regional registered unemployment and the number of vacancies declared to the employment service;
building a model for the functioning of the employment service as a queuing system.
The subject of research is the economic and mathematical modeling of the demand and supply of labor in the organized labor market at the regional level.
Object of study represented by the regional labor market (on the example of the Ivanovo region).
Information base The research was based on statistical data of the Federal Employment Service of the Population, Rosstat of the Russian Federation for the Ivanovo Region, the Rodnikovsky District Center for Employment of the Population, materials from periodicals and data from socio-economic studies of the labor market of the regional Center for Employment of the Population.
Theoretical and methodological basis research was the works of foreign and domestic economists-mathematicians on modeling and forecasting socio-economic systems using correlation and regression analysis, time series analysis, theory of random processes and elements of mathematical statistics; work on the problems of the labor market and modeling of its individual components; legislative and regulatory acts on the regulation of employment in the Russian Federation, documents of the International Labor Organization (ILO).
The dissertation work was performed in accordance with clause 1.9. - "Development and development of mathematical methods and models for analysis and forecasting of socio-economic processes of public life: demographic processes, labor market and employment, quality of life of the population, etc." Passports of specialty 08.00.13 - mathematical and instrumental methods of economics.
Scientific novelty dissertation research, revealing the achievement of the goal, is as follows:
A system of economic and mathematical models of analysis and forecasting of demand and supply of labor in the organized regional labor market is proposed;
a theoretical model of the dynamics of demand and supply of labor was developed on the basis of a system of nonlinear differential equations;
for the stages of development of the organized regional labor market identified by the author, econometric models of time series of registered unemployed and vacant jobs declared to the employment service were built, taking into account both the trend-seasonal nature of the dynamics and the presence of autocorrelation in random residuals;
based on the theory of queuing systems, an approach to modeling the functioning of the employment service, which is the main intermediary institution of the organized labor market, has been developed and tested on the basis of empirical data.
Practical significance and approbation of the research results.
The complex of economic and mathematical models proposed in the work can be used by regional employment services, as well as by governing bodies of various levels - "to assess current and future changes in the demand and supply of labor in the regional labor market, as well as in areas interconnected with it in order to develop strategies for the socio-economic development of the region for the future.
Some research results can be used in the development of educational and methodological literature on the disciplines "Methods and models of economics" and "Statistical forecasting methods."
The results of individual stages of the dissertation research are reflected in publications in various scientific collections and journals, were reported at the VII All-Russian Symposium on Applied and Industrial Mathematics, as well as regional scientific and practical conferences.
Work structure. The thesis consists of four chapters.
V first chapter the analysis of literature sources in the field of labor market research was carried out, the main approaches to determining
10 the labor market as an economic category, the main concepts of the functioning of this market have been investigated, the existing methods of determining the number of unemployed and vacant jobs as the main indicators of supply and demand in the current labor market have been analyzed, the state and development of the labor market in the Ivanovo region for the period 1992-2006 has been assessed.
In second chapter the basic concepts of economic and mathematical modeling as the main method for studying complex systems are considered; an overview of the application of methods of economic and mathematical modeling to the study of labor market processes is given; a complex of models for analysis and forecasting of demand and supply of labor in the organized regional labor market is proposed, a model of the dynamics of demand and supply of labor is developed on the basis of a system of nonlinear differential equations.
V third chapter the basic concepts of econometric modeling of time series are considered; on the basis of empirical data, an econometric analysis of the indicators of demand and supply of labor in the organized labor market of the Ivanovo region in the time interval 1992-2006 is carried out.
V fourth chapter the tasks and specifics of the functioning of the State Employment Service of the Population are analyzed, an approach to modeling the functioning of the Employment Service on the basis of the queuing theory is proposed, on the basis of empirical data a simulation model of the regional Employment Center is built.
Labor market mechanism
World economic thought contains many attempts at an adequate theoretical description of the mechanism of functioning of both the entire labor market and its individual components. With all the variety of such descriptions, the most significant and widespread are two: classical and Keynesian. Let's briefly describe each of them.
Classic concept. In the non-Marxist economic literature, classical theory means mainly the theory of English and American economists, based on the teachings going from A. Smith and D. Ricardo to A. Marshall, A. Pigue and other scientists who have devoted themselves to the development of the theory of general economic equilibrium. The classical theory of employment involves the construction of functions of the aggregate demand for labor and the aggregate supply of labor, applicable to conditions of perfect competition. These complex functions are obtained by aggregating the demand functions of individual entrepreneurs and the supply functions of individual workers. The subjects in the labor market will be business and the state, and the subjects of supply will be households.
According to the classical concept, the labor market is a self-regulating system. The main factor in the balance of the market is the price of labor. The orthodox classical model assumes that the chain of labor is absolutely flexible and freely responds to any changes in supply and demand, maintaining a state of equilibrium.
This model can be represented in the form of a graph (Fig. 2), where the LS curve of the labor supply growing with an increase in wages intersects with the descending LD curve of labor demand at the equilibrium point E.
At point E, the demand for labor is equal to the supply of labor, that is, the labor market is in an equilibrium state. This means that all entrepreneurs willing to pay wages to W / PxE find the required amount of labor on the market, and their demand for labor is fully satisfied. In a state of market equilibrium, all workers are fully employed who are ready to offer their services at a W / PxE salary. Therefore, point E defines a full-time position.
Under any other wage conditions other than W / PxE, the labor market is upset. Wages are the price of equilibrium in the labor market.
Of course, the possibility of emergencies (wars, political upheavals, droughts, etc.) that will lead the economy away from full employment is recognized. At the same time, it is argued that the intrinsic capacity of the market system to automatic self-regulation will soon automatically restore the levels of production and employment in the economy. Unemployment is caused by too high a level of wages, exceeding the equilibrium value, at which there is a surplus of labor supply (unemployment). Meanwhile, lower wages are hindered by the demands of workers themselves, who do not want to work for a wage equal to the marginal product of labor or when the "burden of labor", in their opinion, is higher than the proposed wage. Thus, in essence, unemployment cannot be forced.
Thus, from the point of view of the economic role of the state, the classical model proceeds from the assumption that the market system is capable of automatic self-regulation. The best economic policy in this case is the policy of non-intervention of the state.
A natural and, in a sense, a complete development of the stated point of view is the neoclassical concept, formally described by L. Walras' theory of general equilibrium. In it, the economy is represented by two sectors: production and consumption. It is assumed that in the manufacturing sector, a finite range of goods is observed using a finite set of factors. The rationality of the behavior of economic agents is postulated. Consumers, within the framework of budgetary constraints, in accordance with their utility function, seek to obtain maximum satisfaction from the chosen range of products, and manufacturers - to maximize profits from the release of goods. The economy is considered to be completely competitive, i.e. each economic entity passively accepts the existing price system without trying to influence it. The central issue of the Walrasian model is the existence of equilibrium prices for goods and for primary factors (including labor), in which producers and consumers, acting in the best way for themselves and in accordance with budgetary constraints, ensure such a state of affairs when the demand for each product and the factor does not exceed its offer. A rigorous mathematical proof of the existence of equilibrium prices in the general equilibrium model was obtained only in the middle of the 20th century. with some additional natural restrictions.
Among the proven modifications of the Walrasian model, the Arrow-Debreu model has the greatest generality and chronological priority.
Another important issue of neoclassical models is the problem of attainability of equilibrium - a necessary condition for the stability and normal functioning of the economy. Walras himself believed that in a market economy, the market (“auctioneer”) acts as a regulator, coordinating the actions of all participants and setting equilibrium prices. As a result of the "groping" process, a gradual step-by-step approach occurs initially. selected prices to equilibrium, the so-called cobweb model.
Economic and mathematical modeling of labor market processes
Moving on to considering the problems of the labor market as an object of mathematical modeling and forecasting, it should be noted that this market is fully inherent in all the basic properties of socio-economic systems discussed above.
It should be noted that the labor market as an object of economic and mathematical modeling is quite complex and diverse. The range of specific tasks in the field of studying labor market processes is very wide, and even an overview description of them may be the topic of a separate study. Nevertheless, we will try to briefly characterize the range of the main, in our opinion, tasks, in the solution of which the tools of economic and mathematical modeling could be used.
The main tasks of research in the field of the labor market are the following:? analysis of the composition and indicators of the number of labor resources, including the analysis of employment and unemployment; ? analysis of working time indicators, including issues of scientific organization of labor and analysis of labor costs; ? calculation of actual and planned labor productivity, analysis of factors affecting labor productivity; ? analysis of forms and systems of remuneration, distribution of workers according to the level of wages; ? analysis of the dynamics of labor remuneration and its productivity while studying the influence of their ratio on the cost price and competitiveness of products; ? building a system of labor balances, including the balance of labor resources, the balance of the use of working time, the balance of the movement of the number of employees, the intersectoral balance of labor costs; ? study of the main indicators of the standard of living of the population, including the analysis of patterns and relationships between income and consumption; ? modeling the sectoral dynamics of labor resources; ? analysis of labor migration, etc.
In other words, having chosen the labor market as the object of research, it is necessary to determine the specific task of studying individual processes and phenomena occurring in it.
The listed main tasks in the field of the labor market determine the methodological foundations of the study of this market. These foundations include general scientific methods (system analysis, an integrated approach, program-target planning), analytical and predictive methods (mathematical programming, probability theory and mathematical statistics, queuing theory, expert assessment methods, etc.), as well as methods, borrowed from other areas of knowledge, such as sociology, psychology, ecology, etc. The specified methodological foundations of the labor market research determine the features of the application of economic and mathematical modeling and forecasting to solve the above problems.
First of all, it should be noted that statistical data related to labor market processes (cross-sectional data, time series) serve as the basis for the study of phenomena in this area from the quantitative side, and, therefore, the establishment of patterns should occur on the basis of econometrics, which uses the methods of theory probabilities and mathematical statistics. Therefore, when modeling the tasks of the labor market, one cannot do without the basic concepts and methods of these sciences: random variable, mathematical expectation, variance, general and sample populations, statistical goodness-of-fit tests, laws and distribution curves, etc.
It should be noted here that econometric methods are perhaps the most common in the study of the labor market.
Thus, the method of correlation-regression analysis (CRA) is widely used in the works of A.G. Korovkin, A.V. Polezhaev. Andryunina A.V. Lapina T.D., Podorvanova Yu.A. Parbuzina K.V., Zaitseva N.M. for assessing the dependences of sectoral employment on macroeconomic factors - the volume of gross domestic product and fixed assets, for assessing the functions of demand and supply of labor, the relationship between wages and unemployment, tax burden and employment efficiency, empirical assessment of production functions. In addition to the classical multiple regression analysis, these works also use more advanced econometrics methods: the use of dummy variables in regression analysis, autoregressive transformation.
Bragin V. and Osakovsky V. to estimate the natural level of unemployment in Russia used the apparatus of discrete dependent variables, i.e. logit and probit models.
An extensive study of the dependence of employment on the most important macroeconomic indicators, as well as analysis and forecasting of the dynamics of regional employment using econometric methods are presented in the work
It should be noted that the use of econometric methods in the works of foreign authors is a priori a guarantee of high quality and scientific significance of research work (research paper, discussion paper).
Models of analysis and forecasting of unemployment in the region
A visual analysis of the dynamics of the number of registered unemployed made it possible to identify three qualitatively different stages in the formation and development of the labor market in the Ivanovo region, covered by the periods: January 1992 - April 1996, May 1996 - December 2000, from January 2001 to the present.
Stage 1 (January 1992 - April 1996). "Spontaneous labor market". It is quite natural that at the beginning of economic transformations and the introduction of market-based methods of management, the regional labor market reacted with a sharp increase in registered unemployment. This process was also significantly influenced by the almost single-industry specialization of the region's economy, which was the legacy of the planned economy. During this period, the number of unemployed registered in the SZ increased from 3,297 people. in January 1992 up to 91,190 people. in April 1996
Both visual analysis and statistical verification of the presence of a trend in the time series of registered unemployed using the criterion of walking and descending series in this interval showed a clear presence of an upward trend.
The dynamics of the number of registered unemployed at this stage is described by a statistically significant linear trend: y = -10066.58 + 1687.44? (statistic values -1.73 and 83.34). The coefficient of determination L2 = 0.993 (the overall quality of the regression equation was assessed using the F-significance index = 2.54E-55).
For a number of the number of registered unemployed, at this stage, the additive nature of the seasonal component was revealed. The behavior of the seasonal wave of registered unemployed is such that it increases until April, and then gradually decreases with a slight increase by December. ЯІІВ Feb March Apr May Jun Jul Aug
The calculated Darbin-Watson (DW) statistic was found to be 0.24, which indicates the presence of a positive autocorrelation. Consequently, in the time series of errors, there are statistical dependencies that can be modeled.
To model a number of residuals, autoregressive models of the 1st and 2nd orders (AR (1) and AR (2)) were applied. As can be seen from Fig. 16, the values of the coefficients of the autocorrelation function (ACF) of a number of residuals decay monotonically, and the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) has outliers (peaks) in the first two lags (Fig. 17).
This decrease in the number of registered unemployed can be explained by a number of reasons. First, these are institutional reasons associated with significant changes in the functioning of employment services during this period. Thus, the growing deficit of the employment fund and, for this reason, the reduction in the ability of the employment service to provide assistance to the unemployed, had a significant impact on the reduction of registered unemployment. Meager benefits, strict conditions for their receipt and constant delays in payments have led to a significant outflow of those wishing to register as unemployed. Quite indicative in this case is the Resolution of the Head of the Regional Administration. dated 16.12.1996 No. 708 "On limiting the amount of payment of unemployment benefits, scholarships during the period of vocational training, advanced training, retraining in the direction of the employment service", which determines the limitation of the monthly amount of unemployment benefits, as well as the preservation of the replacement procedure (with the consent of unemployed) monetary benefits unemployment benefits food, industrial goods and services. One cannot ignore the processes of partial stabilization of the country's economy, accompanied by an increase in demand for labor. The outflow of a part of the able-bodied population to economically more favorable neighboring regions also had an impact. In other words, the processes of self-regulation at this stage of development of the labor market in the Ivanovo region played a dominant role, labor resources gradually adapted, assimilating the new “rules of the economic game”.
The trend for the dynamics of the number of unemployed at this stage is best described by a polynomial of the second degree. Y = 21.25 / 2 -2530.47 / + 88625.22 of course). Determination coefficient R = 0.973 (F-significance = 3.4E-42).
The seasonal wave for this period has the most pronounced character of fluctuations in the number of registered unemployed during the year (Fig. 19). This situation is explained by the seasonal nature of a number of jobs (builders, road workers, etc.); in the summer season, the pendulum migration of labor resources makes itself felt significantly, when workers rush to work in neighboring regions. With the end of the season, "returnees" again join the ranks of the unemployed.
Basic concepts of the theory of queuing systems
In many areas of the economy, finance, production and everyday life, an important role is played by systems of a special type that implement multiple execution of the same type of tasks. Such systems are called queuing systems (QS). Let's consider the basic concepts of the theory of queuing systems.
The mathematical schemes of the queuing theory are characterized by the fact that at some moments of time (random or deterministic) there are service requests and there are special devices (devices, tools, channels) for servicing these requests, operating according to a certain law.
In the classical queuing theory, the mathematical functioning of the queuing system is described using the apparatus of finite systems of differential equations, as a result of which it is possible to express explicitly the main characteristics of the queuing system efficiency through its parameters and parameters of the flow of requests. Any CMO includes the following elements:? source of requirements; ? incoming stream of requests; ? service system (service channels); ? outgoing stream of requests.
In many cases, this list is supplemented with a possible queue of requirements awaiting service within the QS.
Depending on the location of the sources of requirements, CMOs are divided into open, for which the sources of requirements are outside the system, and closed, in which the sources of requirements are inside the system. Depending on the number of service channels, single-channel and multi-channel QS are distinguished (sometimes with a specification of the number of available channels). Finally, depending on whether queuing is possible in the QS or not, the systems are divided into:
1) QS with refusals (zero waiting or obvious losses), in which the application received at the entrance to the QS at the moment when all channels are busy, receives a "refusal" and leaves the QS ("disappears").
2) QS with waiting (unlimited waiting or queue). In such systems, a claim arriving at the time all channels are busy enters the queue and waits for the channel to be released, which will accept it for service. Each application that lowers to the entrance, in the end, will be served.
3) CMO mixed type (with limited oe / sitting). These are systems in which some restrictions are imposed on the stay of an application in the queue. These restrictions can be imposed on the length of the queue, the time spent in the queue or in the QS, etc.
In a queuing system with waiting and in a mixed-type queuing system, different schemes of servicing requests from the queue are used, i.e. such CMOs have a certain queue discipline. Servicing can be ordered, when claims from the queue are served in the order of their arrival in the system, and unordered, in which claims from the queue are served in a random order. Sometimes priority service is used, when some requests from the queue are considered priority and therefore are served first.
The universal classification of queuing systems is based on listing the key characteristics of their elements. As a rule, the following expression is adopted to denote the QS: A / B / n / m / l, where A is a symbolic image of the probabilistic distribution of time intervals between neighboring requirements, B is the designation of the probabilistic distribution of the service time by one channel for one customer, n is the number of serving channels in the QS, m is the limit on the length of the queue (either in the form of the maximum possible number of requests that are in the queue, or in the form of the maximum possible time of stay of the request in the queue), / is the number of sources of requests.
The main indicators of the effectiveness of the health care system include: the probability of failure Roth., i.e. the probability that the current demand will leave the system unserved; ? relative throughput Q, i.e. the average share of claims served by the system out of their total number; ? absolute throughput A, i.e. the average number of requests served by the system per unit of time; ? average number of occupied channels km (for multichannel QS); ? average queue length L04, (average number of requests in the queue); ? average number of requests on the system, Lcucm. \? average time of claim staying in queue Gotch; ? average residence time of a request in the Tsist system, (at service or in a queue), etc.
The input flow of requests (requests for service) is characterized by a certain organization and a number of parameters: the intensity of the receipt of requests, i.e. the number of claims, on average, received per unit of time, and the law of probability distribution of the moments of arrival of claims in the system.
The serving system is a set of devices (channels, devices) that provide service for the request that has come to the system. The serving system is characterized by throughput (service speed), i.e. the number of serviced requests per unit of time, and the distribution law of servicing time of requests.
The output stream of claims is the stream of serviced claims leaving the serving system. The output flow parameter is intensity.
Let us dwell in more detail on the characteristics of the input flow of applications. A stream of homogeneous events is the time sequence of the appearance of service claims, provided that all claims are equal. There are also streams of inhomogeneous events when this or that claim has some priority.
If the flow is homogeneous, then each event is characterized only by the moment of its occurrence t). There are two ways to define homogeneous events. The first way is to list all known times tj. The second way is to indicate the dependence that allows you to calculate t) from the previous values.
3.7.6. Economic and mathematical modeling of population employment
Economic science knows a fairly wide range of methods for modeling and forecasting employment of the population. The most common are econometric models. Econometric models are understood as systems of regression equations and identities that reflect the main connections between the formation of employment and other socio-economic indicators.
Often, research uses extrapolation models that propagate past trends into the future. Such models are of limited use, since the statement about the persistence of trends in past periods is not always true, especially for employment. However, these models have analytical value. They can be used in the framework of medium-term forecasting and act as a forecast-warning about what will happen if no action is taken. Such models can also be used as components of more complex systems.
For the purposes of analyzing and forecasting employment, models based on the construction of production functions can be applied. Initially, production functions were designed to analyze and forecast the production of the gross national product, which was considered as a result of the interaction of fixed assets, capital investments, and labor.
The process of creating material and intangible benefits is described by a macroeconomic production function, where one of the factors is the employment of the population, its labor. At the same time, the process of creating the gross national product also depends on other factors: fixed assets, capital investments, etc. Mathematically, production functions can be presented in various forms - from simple linear dependences of the production result on a number of factors to very complex systems of equations, including recurrent relations, which connect the states of the object under study at different periods of time.
The so-called Cobb-Douglas model is widely known:
WNP= C × LN A × FN B, , (3)
where WNP- gross national product,
LN- the number of employees,
FN- the volume of fixed assets,
WITH- coefficient of the production function,
A, B- coefficients of elasticity for labor and funds, respectively.
The use of equation (1), in the presence of the necessary information, allows you to obtain information about the relationship between the two factors of production, their role and contribution, as well as the number of employees in the future.
When solving problems, it is especially important that all cost indicators are expressed in comparable prices. A serious question is identifying the connection between employment and fixed assets. The problem in constructing a production function is the possible presence of a close correlation between these quantities. In this case, you cannot get good statistical estimates of the regression equation. However, for Russia in the last decade, fluctuations in the growth rates of employment and funds in general have been little interconnected. This, in terms of model, makes it easier to solve problems.
If there are doubts about the reliability of information about funds, then you can independently obtain their assessment depending on capital investments and vice versa.
Systems of econometric equations can also be used to model and forecast the employment of the population. Of particular interest here is the employment model based on the labor activity indicator of the population.
Labor activity is defined as a quotient from the division of the employed population and the economically active population, labor resources. At the same time, two mutually consistent models are being built: a model for analyzing and forecasting the employment of the population of the republic as a whole (model 1) and a model for analyzing and forecasting the regional structure of employment (model 2).
Model 1 is built on the assumption that the total number of the employed population is determined by the labor activity indicator, which, in turn, is determined by the achieved level of socio-economic development and the number of labor resources in the republic. In the model, the dynamics of the actual indicator of labor activity is decomposed into two components: a time trend reflecting the change in this indicator over a long period of time and the deviation of its actual values from the aligned ones (deviation from the trend). A trend is expressed as a trend and is assumed to be constant over time. This allows, to a certain extent, to take into account the relative independence of the development of employment of the population. Deviations of the labor activity indicator from the trend are determined by changes in socio-economic and demographic factors that determine the labor activity indicator of the population.
To study these deviations and identify their quantitative relationships, a multiple regression equation can be constructed. As factors-arguments that determine the deviation of the labor activity indicator from the trend, not the absolute values of the factors are used, but the deviations of their actual values from the equalized ones. This allows you to avoid autocorrelation, reduce multicollinearity, and get an answer to the question of how deviations from the trend of factor-arguments quantitatively determine deviations from the trend in the indicator of labor activity of the population.
In model 1, exogenous variables can be: the size of the working-age population and the values of the factors that determine its labor activity. The endogenous variables include the indicator of the labor activity of the population and the number of the employed population of the republic.
Model 1 consists of three blocks: an analysis block, a hindsight block, and a forecast block. The analysis block solves the problem of selecting factors that affect the change in the indicator of labor activity of the population, constructing econometric non-trend equations for labor activity and calculating it taking into account the time trend. In the second block, the econometric multivariate models calculated in the first block are checked against retrospective data. Their adequacy is checked, deviations from the actual values of the variables are studied, and appropriate adjustments are made to the construction of the equation. In the third block, the adjusted models are used to forecast the number of people employed in the republic.
.
Here are the endogenous variables of the model:
g t- the indicator of the labor activity of the population per year t;
Z t- employment of the population per year t;
Exogenous Variables:
- meaning j th factor per year t;
N t- population per year t;
Record view 
etc. denotes the temporal trends of the respective variables.
From the given system of equations, it can be seen that the main content of the model is the calculation and forecast of the labor activity indicator. The most effective (both in terms of development and taking into account the set goal) tool for solving such a problem is the method that assumes some possibility of managing the employment of the population by changing demographic and socio-economic factors. This method can be a modified regression model with the identification of the "drift" of the regression coefficients and "training" the model at the last time points of the period. The purpose of "training" is to reveal whether the line of behavior of the studied indicator is homogeneous from factors, whether a new trend has appeared in recent periods. To implement the method, the regression equations are built using shortened series - without the last periods, which allows you to build several regression equations and compare their coefficients. If the deviation of the coefficients is insignificant, then the equation obtained for the entire series can be used. If the deviations are significant, it makes sense to calculate the regression equation for the entire time series, but the elements of the series are given certain weights depending on their distance from the end of the period (the greater the distance, the less weight).
Model 2 determines the regional structure of employment and, on this basis, the number of employed people in each region that is part of the republic. This model is built to solve two problems: determining the trend of change in the share of people employed in the national economy of each region in the total employed population of the republic and ensuring balance equality between the indicator of total employment of the republic’s population and the total employed population by region.
Exogenous variables of model 2 are statistical data on the regional structure of employment and the total employment of the population of the republic (output of model 1), and endogenous variables are the share of employment of the population of each region in the total employed population of the republic and the absolute values of employment in all regions of the republic. The problem is solved in two stages. At the first, the dynamics of the share of employment of the population in each region in the total employed population of the republic is calculated and predicted, regardless of the regions from each other. At the second stage, the amount of the share participation of the regions is balanced and the shares calculated at the first stage are adjusted by normalizing them.
The following value was used to describe model 2:
l tm is the share of employment in the region m in the total employment of the population of the republic in a year t,- which was calculated by the formula:
where n- the number of regions that make up the republic;
Z tm- the number of people employed in the region m in the year t.
Then the model looks like:
Rationing of equity ratios and their adjustment is carried out as follows:
if equality 
not complied with, i.e. 
then find new values l tm taking into account the degree of share participation of the region m in total employment:
and 
whether
Found values l tm satisfy the condition: 
and can be used to determine the volume of employment of the population in each region of the republic. As a result, the amount of employment in all regions fully coincides with the number of people employed in the national economy of the republic, calculated in model 1.
The considered models are successfully used to analyze the forecast of employment of the population, and it is important that their use involves only information regularly published by statistical agencies.
1.The employment of the population acts as a complex socio-economic phenomenon that plays an important role in the life of society and specifically of an individual. It is a source of satisfaction for the personal and social needs of people.
2. In the conditions of the emergence of a market economy, employment of the population undergoes fundamental changes: the motivation and labor behavior of people are transformed, they acquire economic freedom and the right to voluntary unemployment, competition arises between employers, etc.
3. The goal of the state is to ensure full employment of the population. In a market economy, full employment is not an end in itself. It means achieving a balance of demand and supply of labor as a condition for achieving the greatest effect of activity. This does not mean that society will completely eradicate unemployment.
4. All those who carry out economic activities are considered to be employed; market and some types of non-market production of goods and services. In this case, the minimum duration of work should be, according to world standards, at least one hour per day or week at the time or period of the survey.
5. Those employed in the national economy are distributed according to the spheres of economic activity, occupation and status in employment.
6. To study the problems of employment of the population, the balance method is of great importance. And above all, the balance of labor resources and the balance of mobility of the population and labor resources (economically active and economically inactive population).
7. For the purposes of analysis and forecast of employment of the population, it is advisable and necessary to use the methods of economic and mathematical modeling.
| " |
Related Articles
