Population arrival rate formula example. The concept and indicators of the population. Age mortality rate

Instructions

Population growth is the sum of the values ​​of two indicators - natural and migration growth. This is the difference between the current level of the demographic situation and the level of an earlier period. The time period for which the calculation is made is called calculated and can be short-term (from a month to several years) and long-term (5, 10, 15, 25, 100 years).

Natural increase is positive between the number of births and deaths (the number of births is greater than the number of deaths). For example, in Russia, according to data for 2009, 151.7 thousand people were born, 150.7 thousand people died, which means that the natural population growth amounted to a thousand people. It is believed that if the mortality rate exceeds, then the reproduction of the population is expanded. If these numbers are approximately equal, then reproduction is simple. If the mortality rate exceeds the birth rate, then the reproduction is narrowed, a strong demographic decline is observed.

Migration (or mechanical) growth is a positive difference between the number of people who arrived in the country from other countries and the number of citizens who left it.

To determine the overall picture of demographic changes in a country, population growth rates are used. The rate of natural increase is the difference between the number of births and deaths in a given period, divided by the total population. The coefficient of migration population growth is the difference between the number of citizens who arrived in the country and the number of those who left, divided by the total number. Accordingly, the overall population growth rate is the sum of these rates.

note

Population growth is usually measured as a percentage, so the resulting coefficient must be multiplied by 100. The total population is taken at the beginning of the billing period.

Helpful advice

Based on the data obtained and analysis of the population growth rate, it is possible to predict the development of the situation for the coming periods.

Sources:

• population calculate
• How to calculate natural population growth per 1000 people

Assessment of the demographic situation in the country is the basis for predicting the needs and labor resources of society and, as a result, production volumes to meet the needs of the population. For completeness of the analysis, it is necessary to determine the natural and migratory growth and summarize these values.

Instructions

To analyze the demographic situation in the country, the absolute and relative values ​​of two types of growth are used: mechanical (migration) and natural. The second indicator characterizes the difference between the number of births and citizens over a certain period of time.

In order for the data to be as correct as possible, statistical methods are used to track the slightest changes. These methods include birth and death control by special authorities. Data for this comes from maternity hospitals and hospitals and is documented.

If the number of births in a certain period exceeds the number of deaths, then they speak of expanded reproduction of the population. If they are about the same, it is simple reproduction. If the difference between them is negative, then it is narrowed, which indicates a demographic decline and requires the introduction of emergency measures to stimulate the birth rate.

The absolute estimate of natural growth consists in calculating the arithmetic difference between the volume of reproduction at the end and the beginning of the period, which can be any calendar interval, from a month to 5 years (short-term analysis) to decades: from 5 to 100 years (long-term analysis).

For example, suppose that in a month the number of births was 155,000, and the number of deaths was 153,000. Then there is a natural increase of 2,000 inhabitants. This can be considered simple reproduction, since the difference is small compared to both values.

The relative assessment of natural growth is carried out by calculating the coefficients. In this case, the absolute value is referred to the total number of inhabitants. Thus, a certain value is obtained that can be expressed as a percentage. For example: at the beginning of the year, the population of the country is 50 million people. During the year, 1 million people were born and 850,000 people died. The absolute indicator of natural growth in this case is equal to 150,000, and the relative one is (150,000/50,000,000) 100% = 0.3%.

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Tip 3: How to determine the rate of natural growth

The economic and social planning of any country is based on the projected population change. Citizens are at the same time its labor and consumer resource, for the assessment of which it is necessary to determine the indicator of natural growth.

Instructions

The name of the rate of natural growth speaks for itself. This is an increase or decrease caused by the processes: childbirth and death. The magnitude and sign of this value depends on the relationship between these two demographic factors.

If the number of births during the period under consideration exceeds the number of deaths, then extended reproduction takes place, in the case of approximate equality - simple. Well, the situation in which the mortality rate is higher than the birth rate is characterized by narrowed reproduction.

Statistics help researchers assess the processes that take place in the system. Various factors can be grouped, compared with other similar categories. The population and the processes taking place in the social sphere are studied by statistics rather thoroughly. After all, this reflects the existing demographic situation at the global level.

The average annual population participates in many economic studies at the macro level. Therefore, this important category of data is constantly monitored and recalculated. The importance of the indicator, as well as the analysis methods, are discussed in the article.

Population

To be able to determine the average annual population of a city, district or country, it is necessary to understand the essence of the research subject. The demographic situation can be viewed from different angles.

Population refers to the entire number of people who live within the boundaries of a certain territory. To analyze the demographic situation, this indicator is considered in the context of natural reproduction (fertility and mortality) and migration. They also investigate the structure of the population (by age, sex, economic and social level, etc.). Also, demographic data show how the settlement of people across the territory has changed.

The population is investigated by statistics using general and special methods. This allows us to draw full-fledged, deep conclusions about the development of demographic indicators.

Directions of analysis

The average annual population is estimated using different ones, depending on the purposes of the analysis. The demographic picture that has developed over a certain period of time in a particular territory can be considered in the context of the dynamics of the total population.

To understand why certain changes have taken place, it is necessary to assess the natural movement, the migration of people. For this, the relevant data are involved in the analysis. In order to have a complete understanding of the population grouping, the formation of the total number of people, they are classified according to certain criteria.

For example, the study shows how many women and men live in a certain territory, what age they are, how many people from the working-age population have qualifications, a higher level of education.

Calculation formula

Various formulas are applied to make the population recalculation. But sometimes the calculation is complicated by collecting data over several time intervals. If there is information at the beginning and end of the period, the average annual population (formula) looks like this:

CHNwed. = (ChNn.p. + ChN.p.) / 2, where ChNavd. - average population size, CHNn.p. is the number of the population at the beginning of the period, PNk.p. - number at the end of the period.

If statistics were collected for each month of the study period, the formula would be:

CHNwed. = (0.5ChN1 + ChN2 ... ChNp-1 + 0.5 ChNp) (n-1), where ChN1, ChN2 ... ChNp-1 is the number of the population at the beginning of the month, n is the number of months.

Data for analysis

The average annual population, the formula of which was presented above, takes a number of data for calculation. It is necessary to calculate the constant number of population living in this territory (PN). It includes the actual number of people who actually live in the study area (HH).

In addition to this indicator, in order to study the demographic state of the country, the category of the temporarily residing population (ID) is taken into account. Also, temporarily absent people (VO) take part in the count. Only this indicator is subtracted from the total. The formula for the permanently resident population looks like this:

PN = NN + VP - VO.

To distinguish between the EP and NN, take into account the time interval of 6 months. If a group of people lives in the study area for more than six months, they are referred to as cash, and less than six months - to the temporary population.

Population census

The average annual resident population is calculated on the basis of data But this process requires a significant investment of time, effort and money. Therefore, it is not possible to conduct a census every month or even a year.

Therefore, in the intervals between the recalculation of the number of people in a certain territory, a system of logical calculations is used. Collect statistics on births and deaths, migration movement. But over time, a certain error in the indicators accumulates.

Therefore, to correctly determine the average annual population, it is nevertheless required to conduct a periodic census.

Applying analysis data

The calculation of the average annual population is carried out in order to further study the demographic processes. The result of the analysis is used to calculate the mortality and fertility rates, natural reproduction. They are calculated in the context of each age group.

Also, the average number is applicable when assessing the number of able-bodied and economically active population. In this case, the totality of people who left or arrived in the territory of the country or region through migration can be considered. This makes it possible to assess the potential of the entire workforce concentrated here.

The correct distribution of labor resources is the key to the economic development of the state. Therefore, the importance of counting the number of the population can hardly be overestimated.

Natural movement of the population

The average annual population, the calculation formula of which was discussed above, participates in the assessment of various demographic indicators. One of them is the natural movement of the population. It is due to the natural processes of fertility and mortality.

Over the course of a year, the average population increases by the number of newborns and decreases by the number of deaths. This is the natural course of life. Vital movement rates are found relative to the average number of the population. If the birth rate exceeds the death rate, there is an increase (and vice versa).

Also, when conducting such an analysis, the population is broken down by age. This is how it is determined in which group there was a high mortality rate. This allows us to conclude about the standard of living in the study area, social security of citizens.

Migration

The indicator of the number of inhabitants can change not only due to natural processes. People leave for work or, conversely, come for the purpose of employment. If such displaced persons are or are absent from the investigated object for more than 6 months, this must be taken into account in the analysis.

Significant migration flows affect the economy. changes with both a decrease and an increase in the number of able-bodied residents.

The average annual population will help find both the growth rate and the decrease in labor supply in the region. If too many emigrants enter the country, the unemployment rate will rise. A decrease in the number of able-bodied people leads to a budget deficit, a decrease in pensions, salaries of doctors, teachers, etc. Therefore, the presented indicator is also extremely necessary to control the migration movement.

Economic activity

In addition to changes in the quantitative ratio of the entire population of a country or region, a structural analysis is required. Usually, three classes of the population are distinguished according to the level of income.

The average annual number makes it possible to assess the purchasing power of residents and their standard of living. In developed countries, most of the society is made up of people with average incomes. They can purchase the necessary food, things, periodically make large purchases, travel.

In such states there is a small percentage of very rich and poor people. If the number of people with low incomes increases significantly, a large financial burden falls on the budget. At the same time, the aggregate standard of living decreases.

All groups of the economically active population are presented as the average annual population.

Probability tables

To determine the average annual population without a census, the method of constructing probability tables is used. The point is that most demographic processes can be predicted in advance. This concerns the natural movement of the population.

The table is built on the basis of several statements. Natural movement is irreversible, because you cannot die and be born twice. You can give birth to your first child only once. A certain sequence of events must be taken into account. For example, you cannot enter into a second marriage if the first has not been registered.

The population is divided into age groups. For each of them, the probability of the occurrence of this or that event is different. Next, the number of people in each category is analyzed.

Over time, people with a certain degree of probability move to one group or another. This is how the forecast is made. For example, that category of the population that is of working age will become pensioners. Therefore, analysts are able to predict how many people will join the next group.

Planning

Planning at the macroeconomic level is impossible without statistical data. The average annual number of the active population is taken into account when studying the standard of living, purchasing power, as well as when developing the country's main economic document (budget).

The amount of his income and expenses cannot be predicted without taking into account the number and structure of the country's inhabitants. The more people work in the non-budgetary sphere, the higher their income level, the more significant will be the injections into budgetary funds.

If analysts determine a drop in input flows in the future, it is necessary to develop measures to improve the situation. Each state has its own apparatus for managing demographic resources. By creating new jobs, pursuing a competent social policy, raising the standard of living of the population, one can make the country prosperous.

Analysis and planning of the demographic situation is carried out with the obligatory use of average annual indicators of the population size, as well as other structural coefficients. Therefore, the adequacy of the country's budget planning depends on the correctness of data collection and their study.

Considering the concept of population, one can understand the importance of this indicator for macroeconomic analysis and planning. Many forecasts for the future of a country, region or city are built after the correct collection and processing of relevant information. This is a necessary step in drawing up a budget plan and many other important financial documents.

The indicators of the natural movement of the population include the indicators of marriages and divorces. Population migration rates are also calculated. Distinguish between immigration and emigration. The indicators of migration are the number of arrivals to a given settlement, those who left, and the difference between them is the balance of migration. The balance can be positive (mechanical population growth) and negative. The intensity of migration and emigration, as well as the relative change in the number, is defined as the ratio of these indicators to the average population, multiplied by 1000.

Labor resources- This is a part of the country's population that has the necessary physical development, health, education, qualifications and professional knowledge to work in the national economy. Labor force statistics study the following categories:

working age population;

able-bodied population of working age;

labor resources.

The number of the country's labor resources is primarily determined by the size of the working-age population.

Labor resources in general are potential labor resources. In addition to them, there are also existing (functioning or used) labor resources. This is part of the general labor force employed in the national economy. The difference between potential and current labor resources characterizes the absolute value of unused labor resources.

To characterize the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources, a number of relative indicators of structure and coordination are calculated. This is the proportion of people under working age, working age and older than working age in the total population. The higher the proportion of people of working age, the more efficient the age structure of the population in terms of labor resources.

Able-bodied population- this is a set of people capable of work by age and state of health. Working age limits are established by labor legislation. In the Republic of Belarus, the working age population is considered: for men - 16-59 years; for women - 16 - 54. The rest of the population is considered disabled by age criterion. It is divided into two specific groups: the population in the pre-working age (10-15) and the population in the post-working age (men 60 and older, women 55 and older). The first of them is a source of compensation for losses and replenishment of labor resources in the future. The second is the “retirement burden” on the working population.

The working-age population is not all capable of work. Therefore, it is divided into the working-age population and the disabled working-age population. Students of working age, taking part-time studies at universities and vocational schools, persons in military service do not participate in social production. In addition, they include the part of the population employed in their household, caring for children, and other reasons).

The second group includes the population of working age with I and II disability groups and persons receiving a pension on preferential terms.

The number of labor resources is determined as of a certain point in time. When calculating a number of indicators, the average annual number of labor resources is used, which is determined in the same way as the average annual population.

On the basis of these contingents of the population, two coefficients of working capacity are determined:

the entire population;

working age population.

Working capacity ratio of the whole population:

,

where is the able-bodied working-age population;

The migration balance is often used in statistics. The indicators are often called mechanical population growth. This is the so-called absolute value, which depends on the total number of people living in a particular region.

What are the types of indicators

These are the absolute rates of migration:

• number of people who came to the region (city. region) - P;
• the number of persons who left - B;
• net migration or balance - MS;
• migration turnover (gross or volume) - MO.

Mechanical population growth

The migration balance is calculated as the difference between the persons who arrived and those who left for a certain time and a specific territory. This is what the formula for migration gain looks like:

This indicator can be negative (population decline), positive (growth), or equal to 0.

There is a balance of internal and external migration, movement of groups on a certain basis - urban and rural residents, women and men.

If data are available, what is the total and natural population growth, you can calculate the mechanical increase as the difference between the 1st and 2nd.

Migration volume

The formula for the volume of migration is calculated as the sum of citizens who arrived and left from a certain territory and characterizes the total flow of people:

Relative values

The partial and general coefficients and indices of the relative intensity of movement for certain groups are differentiated:

• the arrival rate refers to the number of arrivals for every 1000 people per year in the region:

Kpr = (P / N) * 1000

H - the number of people living in the designated area per year

• Departure rate, indicating how many residents have departed for every thousand:

Cube = (W / H) * 1000;

• migration balance ratio:

KMS = ((P-V) / N * 1000;

• migration coefficient turnover

KMO = ((P + V) / N) * 1000

• Coef. migration efficiency is the ratio in% balance to turnover:

KEM = ((P-V) / (P + V)) * 100

• relative mig. balance.

MSO = (P / V) * 100. This is the ratio of the number of arrivals to the number of those who left, in%.

You can also calculate averages over a couple of years. This is necessary to avoid inadvertent deviations in values. In this case, for the calculation, you need to take the absolute average values ​​and information about the number of residents for the required period.

In order to understand what part falls on individual groups in the total value of departures and arrivals, the relative intensity indices are calculated.

Indicators of statistics on external migration of the population assume the use of the words “immigration” and “emigration”. Separate calculations fall on labor. migrants.

Analysis of the balance of labor and general migration makes it possible to understand to which countries and where the flow of labor is coming from.

Such information is necessary for the correct formation of immigration policy and human resources management.

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The migration balance, or mechanical population growth, is one of the most widely used indicators in statistics. It refers to the so-called absolute indicators, which depend on the total number of residents living in a particular region.

Types of migration indicators

Let's consider what are the absolute indicators of population migration:

• the number of arrivals (to the region, settlement, region) (P);
• number of departures (B);
• migration balance (or net) (MS);
• migration volume, or gross, or turnover (MO).

Mechanical population growth

The migration balance is calculated as the difference between those who arrived and those who left from a particular territory for a certain period. The migration growth formula looks like this:

This value can be positive, negative, or zero. In the first case, they talk about population growth, in the second - about its decline.

Distinguish between the balance of external and internal migration, as well as movements of certain groups on any basis: rural and urban residents, men and women, people of different nationalities.

If you know what the total population growth and its natural increase (due to births and deaths) are, mechanical growth can be calculated as the difference between the first and the second.

Migration volume

The formula for the volume of migration is calculated as the sum of people who have arrived and left from a certain territory and characterizes the total flow of migrants:

All these indicators are specific numbers that depend on the population of the area, and therefore cannot give a complete picture of what is happening, that is, an idea of ​​the intensity of the processes. Therefore, relative characteristics are also needed, such as the migration rate.

Migration metrics: video

Relative migration indicators

Distinguish between general and partial coefficients, as well as indices of the relative intensity of movements for individual groups:

• the arrival rate shows the number of arrivals for each thousand residents of the region in one year:

Kpr = (P / N) x1000

where H is the average annual number of people living in a given territory;

• the departure rate shows how many people have departed for each thousand residents in a year:

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Cube = (W / H) x1000;

• migration turnover ratio:

Kmo = ((P + B) / N) x1000;

• migration balance ratio:

Kms = ((P - B) / N) x1000;

• the coefficient of migration efficiency is the ratio of the balance to the turnover as a percentage:

Cam = ((P-V) / (P + V)) x100;

• relative migration balance - the ratio of the number of arrivals to the number of departures as a percentage:

MCo = (P / V) x100.

Having made calculations for various groups of residents (age, gender, national), we will obtain particular characteristics.

You can also calculate averages over several years: this is done in order to avoid accidental deviations in values. For the calculation, in this case, the average absolute indicators and data on the number of inhabitants for the required period are taken.

In order to have an idea of ​​what proportion individual groups occupy in the total value of arrivals or departures, relative intensity indices are calculated for them.

Speaking about the indicators of statistics of external migration of the population, they use the words “emigration”, “immigration”, and also make calculations for a separate group - labor migrants.

An analysis of such characteristics as the balance of general and labor emigration allows one to see to which countries and from where the flows of labor are directed. And this, in turn, is important for the formation of an adequate immigration policy and workforce management.

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